Member Info for Discodave4561

ShearClass

Agree, they hadn’t the decency to state that revenue was below expectations but grasping straws by mentioning EBITDA margin was ahead, how about their true profitability pbt?

By my quick calcs I reckon they will miss FY25 eps.

Nope not knocked it out the park, missed their chuffing ball completely!

Rev approaching £650m, looks like a miss to forecast of £674m.

EBITDA margin forecasted above expectations (how about pbt?)

Only 88k meters supplied, rampers spouting 100k

Then: “Average monthly new bookings of £42.6m (2023: £55.5m), reflecting a softer commodity pricing environment.”

A 23% reduction, growth as I’ve posted numerous times is slowing. Likewise Rev contracted for FY25 only +9%. Last year it was up 111%.

Decent cash position but how much is constrained by their liquidity covenants. No mention of any significant increase in dividends or any reference to operational cash inflows.

Difficult to know how the market will react.

Howard

Sorry but you are wrong. At the time of the TRADE the spread was 1850 and 1910. So a trade of 1850 would have been at the sell price. As posted check the trade at 13:21 to see what the bid / offer was at around that time. It’s not rocket science but I guess you prefer to talk your book :)

Doesn’t look like a buy to me, the bid / ask at the time of the trade (13:23) was 1850 and 1910, the trade was at 1850. So it was a £130k sell, how did you conclude it was a buy?

Check the trade at 13:21 to confirm the actual bid / ask price at the time of the trade not what the bid / ask was when it went through.

Irish

Agree and have been saying that for a while now (are you copying my longstanding views now?), but the paid ramper and his biatch don’t agree……..but hey they clearly don’t mind when posted by a perma bull.

Tell me, do you think this will hit its forecasted market share and be worth £100 a share?.

Please can you check my spelling, thanks.

They can’t get into the FTSE250 until their market cap is about 30% more. Then tracker funds have to invest.

Yes 100k meters but it’s the volume they supply tgats key not the number of meters. As for gas prices, the spot price is not what they pay Shell plus spot price average for last year was below FY23. Forward contracts will be different.

Ipc

“I am still of the opinion that we wont see significant II investment on AIM unless BK sells a portion of his shares. Looking forward to an interesting week.”

BK needs to offload some of his shares to entice additional II’s into investing but even then its AIM!. For BK to do that it will require a discounted secondary placing which may hit the shares short term, but longer term IMO it will be of benefit given it should improve liquidity.

As for results, could be another sell on news if only inline just like last July, nobody knows despite the incessant ramping…..not to mention this ridiculous £100 share value being spouted by some.

Net profits:

2013 -£27k

2014 -£143k

2015 -£816k

2016 -£1.4m

2017 +£1.8m (dodgy accounting)

2018 -£6.3m

2019 -£4.97m (promised a profit)

2020 -£1.2m

2021 +£4.4m

2022 +£4.7m (Energy Crisis)

2023 +£30.9m

Ps don’t think many in here understand trading a stock on momentum. Have to keep stressing that I’ve profited trading this but defo wouldn’t invest here long term - the business is only profitable when energy prices are abnormally high (due solely / predominantly down to Ukraine war). I’ll keep posting my views and challenging some of the ridiculous opinions posted here, namely £100 a share based purely on current abnormal trading and their unrealistic forecasts about future market share.

LJ

You posted elsewhere the following, and on here it’s no different. Nobody can post any views which doesn’t pump the stock and align with a paid rampers views:

“@sparky don’t mean for this to come across rude, but any chance you can let others with differing views a chance to speak on here? I’m equally as bullish as you, but I know I’m not infallible and could easily be missing something. That’s why I’d much rather hear from those who have alternative perspectives.”

When are they going to hit their fantasy market share of 5%-7%?

Can’t see any deadline having gone through their interims and AR.

Next week will be interesting with Trump taking office 20th (by Tuesday he will have sorted Ukraine - he said a day didn’t he!), then results here 21st and CMD 23rd.

Bod

What advice or tips?, no advice has ever been given I’m not licensed.

I do okay thanks, YU owes me nothing and will hopefully continue that way.

You read tea leaves or have a glass ball? - nobody knows what the future holds, least of all yiur goodself,. Don’t tell me, you believe the fantasy of £100…..one born every minute.

Good luck.

ATH intraday was 1970 in April. The usual upward momentum to results. Then?

Ukraine gas to Europe - to put into context as no doubt next door are ramping the impact, over 80% of the gas exported was cut when Russia invaded nearly 3 years ago, hence the spike in prices and the worst is definitely over - but hey gas producers like Shell will welcome the opportunity to increase pricing and their margins.

As for the fantasy 7% market share. There are currently about 5.5 million SME’s in the UK, a market share of 7% would equate to circa 385k. Do folks realise that the UK’s largest energy supplier only currently supplies 350k!, so is BK saying they are going to take the bulk of the non-domestic business from British Gas and become the largest business supplier of energy in the UK, really!, I’ve not seen YU’s PR bragging about such a future target……smell the coffee ffs.

I would accept that they gained some minimal market share from the 29 energy suppliers that went bump during 2021/22, but again ask yourself why these companies went bump - it was primarily because they supplied domestic users whose bills are capped. Of the 29 energy companies I believe CNG Energy was the largest that only supplied non-domestic customers (40k, which is about 0.7% market share). So YU should have already gained any new customers as a consequence of the 29 energy suppliers going out of business during their FY22, FY23 and FY24 periods.

£100 a share is complete fantasy. They would need to generate at least £5bn of income and that’s being generous with a 4% net profit margin, which has in the past been half that (and PE of 8x). That’s income growth of 7 times FY24 (forecast, which they’ve confirmed as in libe). Growth of seven tines wjat it’s taken over ten years to generate!. Do the maths ffs. All because the business promotes a market share of 7%, when it’s taken over ten years to generate 1.4%!, don’t be so naive, wjat do you expect them to say that their market share won’t grow at all!. Given their own financial forecasting is abysmal how the heck can they know they will grow market share by the amount they’ve said…impossible.

Anyway, their own CFO clearly doesn’t believe in the fantasy spouted here (£100 a share) otherwise he wouldn’t have sold over half he’s holdings.

Hello NG, good to see you back and that you still hold (yeah right whatever). I see you are still ramping with fanciful numbers, I’m guessing you went to the same financial forecasting school as Rawson!, Strange that you were very vocal (ramping) up to the July TU, them not a squeak until today after it fell 30%……good timing eh!.

Good to also see that you resort to type with your childish name calling, for info the “disco” has sweet fa to do with dancing, it was associated with my profession.

When do you think BK will do a discounted placing?

All the best for 2025 :)

SNN

If you believe, as you appear to, in a business that cannot forecast any more accurately than a range of 67% then I assume you also believe in Santa.

So their house broker has stated £750m for 2024.

My point is simply they cannot forecast but they should be able to a lot closer than they have.

You seem intelligent too but from your last posting it appears you do believe in fairytales - £1.25bn Rev, yeah right!, £100 per share, yeah right.

NG sold that fairytale and you bought it but clearly have zero conviction, where’s NG now?.

Anyway, all the best for 2025 - I’m still happy to trade (tell me when you have) and wait for the crash.

Hi SNN

Don’t quite know where you got the £715m forecast revenue for FY25 from, it’s £746m. That’s some range of finger in the air / “rough” revenue forecasts from the business (to their house broker), from £750m (which is only 0.5% higher than current consensus forecasts) to at least two-thirds higher at £1.25bn!, really!, doesn’t that shout out “we can’t really forecast to any degree of accuracy”. Hence Rawsons bulls up for his FY19 promise of a profit!. Doesn’t it raise some flags for you that they have forward contracts on pricing, knowledge of existing customer usage patterns, an alleged vision of what their market share growth per annum is but then can’t forecast the next 12 months to within a 67% range! - I’m gobsmacked tbh. Hey why not say their future income is completely uncertain, as clearly IMO it is with such ridiculous forecasting.

If it is £800m as you have estimated then yes that could be a reasonable estimate (a 7% beat above consensus but again not anywhere near the +65% upgrade for FY24 revenue - looks to me like they can’t forecast to within less than two-thirds accuracy). And once again doesn’t this demonstrate how bad they are at forecasting?. Then there’s their bottom line erosion in terms of margin, this is the first FY with Shell so an unknown unlike previous years.

You also stated that you may be tempted to “trade” long - why a short term trade?, surely given you have stated more than once that this could be worth £100 in the future, so on that belief why worry about trading, why aren’t you selling every assets you have, even your kidneys your pets etc etc, taking out a massive loan and buying up as much stock as you can? (truly not having a dig but I did find your comment amusing).

SNN

Fair points, but Rawson can’t forecast as been proven by his FY19 promise of a profit that actually equated to a £5m net loss. Brokers are only spouting what they are told by their clients who pay them.

We will see - no trading update before Jan as predicted by some on here, no forecast best and growth is slowing that’s a fact.

I will trade whichever direction post the Jan update, it’s no loss to me if my bearish views don’t come to fruition short term, it’s not short term volatility / corrections / noise that I’m waiting for, that’s just fun, it’s the major correction longer term that I’m waiting for. Look at the chart, look at the correlation with energy price and net profits. Could be wrong there too but again this game isn’t about being right all the time, that's impossible unless you are someone like Sparky!, it’s about making sure that your 60% of trades / investments return more than your 40% bad calls.

All the best, but the play here is 109% reliant upon a commodity that the business can do sweet fa about.