Member Info for Discodave4561

For 2022 and 2023 YU paid Bobby Kalar £255k for leasing their HQ. Is he not satisfied with his 51% holding and his £1,010,000 remuneration?, not to mention that his pay was double compared to the previous year. Oh and not to mention all their juicy share options.

Me thinks this business is run for the benefit of management, they know when the sun shines how to keep topping up their tans!.

“The Group has a lease arrangement for its main office facilities in Nottingham which was extended in the year (on an arm's-length basis with a related party as disclosed in note 26),”

The HQ is owned by KAL Portfolio Trading Limited. It’s all in their AR.

No surprise it gapped down and opened at 1635.

I see GOOD bid of 490, based on FY25 consensus that’s 11x PE. But is YU worth a similar rating, not in my opinion, they have minimal assets to speak of (BK owns their HQ and leases to the business-circa £200k pa if memory serves), hence when you look at price to tangible book YU looks expensive:

YU price to tangible book is 5.6x

CNA price to tangible book 1.6x

Good bid price to tangible book is 2.5x

And some here believe YU will be worth £100 in the not too distant future. Do think it’s looking reasonable value at the moment but then IMO the market seems to think they won’t grow as they forecasted - hence the reaction after they stated they were going to miss their sales forecasts.

Going on the UT Friday. a gap down to 1635 on open Monday is my guess. May try a sneaky spread bet short to catch it but tried that before and they aren’t that stupid - but never hurts to try and beat the system.

Some very strange stalkers / fans on ADVFN and here (all filtered), don’t quite get it tbh, one’s just trying to put food on the table, it’s nothing personal :)

Sanguine

Yes, can’t deny their growth, but it is slowing which can’t be ignored either.

It’s also true that prior to the energy crisis they were loss making. When energy prices fall back will they still be profitable?, will they fall back? - IMO yes they will but will admit I thought they’d have normalised completely by now, but give it time and it will, I’m a patient chap.

Anyway, all the best and hope you make some money.

Meant to add - they’ve just informed the market that they’ve missed their forecasted revenue for the year, and bookings were down. So instead of Rev growth of 50% for the year it’s now 40%. No guidance either on bottom line profits. It’s no surprise IMO the market reacted the way it did - nothing to do with sell on news IMO, businesses are getting hit at the moment for being in line (CMCX fell c 18% yesterday for an in line update).

Sanguine

British gas non domestic supply has been growing from when I last looked at their numbers, yes granted not as much as the significant growth here, but that is slowing up now. The big six won’t just sit back whilst YU eat their lunch and they have the flexibility and size to beat YU on price.

As for dividend yield - CNA 3.8%, YU 4%.

What other energy supply business would you like to compare YU to?. Please don’t say TEP, that’s a multi offering strategy and completely different business model. Which as with CNA, YU are only an energy supplier to SME’s, no significant diversification unlike CNA and TEP, yes they have water but haven’t supplied anyone yet since obtaining their licence, and okay they’ve got smart metering which I do see as a positive for growth. As for their 7% market share, do the maths, that equates to more non domestic customers than British Gas!, yet their share only increased how much in the last 12 months?, was it 0.4% (that’s from memory so apologies if incorrect).

I still contend that YU are making decent profit whilst the sun shines, and it’s all due to the energy crisis. Hey each to their own, just posting my views .

Noted the heading - doesn’t look like an island reversal to me.

As for old Robbie, personally don’t trust his trades, always out allegedly before a crash and always in allegedly just before a spike.

He does very little research otherwise he’d know there’s only two brokers covering the stock, both paid by YU, so consensus target prices are what the company tells them they want the sp to be. IMO the £20 is a bit pricey IMO as that’s a rating of 10x (CNA is 7x).

As for his cash comment he hasn’t clocked that their cash once netting of the collateral (£50m) has actually dropped circa £2m. That’s a fact despite what rampers keep spouting no doubt. Shell has liquidity covenants which IMO will constrain a significant chunk of their cash. Shell won’t just be profiting from their margin but will have required some risk mitigation, just like SmartestEnergy did with the collateral payment (which they also received interest on). IMO that’s why there’s been no significant buyback (or any sustained buyback programme), no decent acquisition either. If folks want to believe that all their cash is free to be distributed however they like then so be it, but ask the question what’s in it first Shell taking all the risk and why aren’t they utilising that cash pile?.

Should be interesting to see how the sp reacts after they’ve all finished at the CMD at 3pm.

YU the share that just keeps giving, both the ups and the downs.

Sorry meant bad debt so re-posting (otherwise the typo police Irish will be on my case again!)

Brucie

Bad Debt - is that from their interims?. In the TU yesterday they only sad tight management of bad debt.

IMO the market reacted as you’d expect given they missed revenue forecasts. Plus the growth for the year should have been 50% from my recollection not 40% (H1 60% and H2 40%). The market would have possibly sold on news even if they were in line on Rev. As for EBITDA margin growth that’s great but what’s the bottom line growth?. The update left a lot of questions to be answered which no doubt will be addressed but the market only reacts to the information it has - which wasn’t what it expected.

As for market growth, seriously folks can’t believe their 7% market share taking all the non domestic customers away from BG and becoming the UK’s number one supplier, it’s a competitive market so in order to gain share they will have to reduce margins.

Brucie

Bad - is that from their interims?. In the TU yesterday they only sad tight management of bad debt.

IMO the market reacted as you’d expect given they missed revenue forecasts. Plus the growth for the year should have been 50% from my recollection not 40% (H1 60% and H2 40%). The market would have possibly sold on news even if they were in line on Rev. As for EBITDA margin growth that’s great but what’s the bottom line growth?. The update left a lot of questions to be answered which no doubt will be addressed but the market only reacts to the information it has - which wasn’t what it expected.

As for market growth, seriously folks can’t believe their 7% market share taking all the non domestic customers away from BG and becoming the UK’s number one supplier, it’s a competitive market so in order to gain share they will have to reduce margins.

Could be a DCB today…..but seems a low volume day so far.

Doesn’t look like another July crash is on the cards, but who knows what their CMD will bring.

Meant to add

“Blue Finish” - pmsl, yes you definitely need bags if luck. Guess you also believe this will be worth £100!.

Anyone seen Gacky?

K3VMC

“Yes, I can, thank you. And if a market maker stooge is bringing a sp down for me, I’m also very grateful.”

Your answer clearly demonstrates that you can’t as resorted to childish insults. Plus if you think mm’s manipulate the amount of buying and selling then you are also very naive and an idiot if you think that’s what posted on a free BB influences the share price of this or any other stock

Another one for the filter.

Good luck clearly you will need it :)

Sorry Irish that should have been “either way”, my sincere apologies for that I’m using my dog :)

ShearClass

“but forecasts in the market are for £773m revenue in 2025”

I’ve got consensus as £746m for FY25, have brokers increased that today?

Either was as you highlight they’ll be pushed to make £700m going on those comparative booking / Rev numbers.

Rev growth H2 was only 25% compared to last year and was forecast to be 40%. Particularly skewed when compared to the uk gas price (yes I know it’s not what Shell charge but someone on here constantly refers to it!) increased 78% during their H2 period.

K3VMC

Can’t you handle an opposing view?. Doesn’t look like it. Yes opposing views make a market not mm’s.

Good luck

“Anyway. If you don’t like YU, don’t invest. :-))”

That’s not going to happen. Business profitability is not sustainable IMO, it’s only seen profits and growth because of the energy crisis.

Just my opinion, that’s what makes a market :)

K3VMC

You do know don’t you that Premier Miton have been trimming their position here.

Plus broker forecasts are Rawsons forecasts - say no more!

Hope there are no spelling mistakes Irish!

So what exactly does “approaching £650m” mean Mr Rawson?, are you talking £645m?. Why can’t you say given you know how much is contracted for and the price you charge customers!. This is akin to his famous we will make a profit in FY19 (actual loss £6.5m).

Then their cash - Net cash when netting off the £50m collateral gain has actually dropped marginally (c £2m) compared to FY23.

Wonder what their liquidity covenants are?, let’s see if they ever optimise their cash via buybacks or acquisitions. My guess is they won’t be able to.