Member Info for Discodave4561

Missed off this bit - it had £105m for the cash FY24 and they’ve stated it’s £80m, 24% lower than forecasts.

Sparky pal

Thanks for that.

The forecasts are out of date, has £675m Rev for FY24. They’ve said £644m.

Fair play you weren’t wrong about the cash £160m, just don’t see it personally, as you say the key word is if you BELIEVE and I certainly don’t. Why would cash generation go from £3m pa to £110m netting off the one off collateral pay back?.

If it’s £160m by FY26 I’ll buy you a pint

Sparky pal

Apologies for the questions but it’s important don’t you think to get facts right. And to support what you post with evidence if it’s fact and not opinion.

So as I posted, SP Angel forecast net cash FY25 of £96.1m (up from £80.2m, can’t see that either but we will see). But you are saying Lib and / or GW, or both state £160m for FY26, so in 12 months (2026) using the SP Angel latest forecast, they will generate an additional £64m in net cash?, really!. How the fcuk when FY24 they only increased net cash by £3m when you net off the collateral handed back to them (no fairy godmother will wave her magic wand again), no chance IMO.

Sparky pal

“and if my memory serves me well it s gervais podcast that mentioned £160m by end of 2026 to would not be reported until jan 27 cash and to be frank can’t be ****d to find and rewatch them”

So was it GW or Lib or both (or neither) that mentioned £160m cash by FY26?

Sparky pal

I’m tempted to say what you are but will refrain. I’m simply asking you to post up some evidence about what you claim, but you refuse, thus it’s not credible then in my book.

If you can’t provide the evidence then you should say it’s in your opinion……..it works both ways!.

Sparky pal

£160m Not mentioned here :

https://www.youtube.com/live/OE9UpRwdNBk?si=OSp4v6_6CyKjwn20

£160m Not mentioned here :

https://youtu.be/-GCPgsLdv8s

£160m cash not mentioned here, GW mentions £100m to £110m for FY24, the company have confirmed in their year end TU £80.2m, so GW was 24% out, that’s some error imo.

https://www.youtube.com/live/88t1PrefCAw?si=COMpf5QmxY1KDF05

£160m Not mentioned in this one:

https://youtu.be/jTbeHM1A1vI

GW 10th Jan 2025 now saying cash c £90m for FY24, yet 7 months ago he was saying £100m to £110m!. Fact is he was miles out 7 months ago and still got it wrong only 11 days prior to the TU. Never hurts though does it to pump your stocks whilst selling them!.

https://youtu.be/X3LW1_3iVEI

So Sparky I’ve listened to all GW’s podcasts that I can find for the last year and ZERO mention of your £160m cash.

It’s got nothing to do with due diligence, I do my research, it’s about supporting what you say with evidence, you posted GW also mentioned this £160m cash figure, so post the link to the podcast you heard him state that number. Failing that (because I know you aren’t likely to do that) screenshot your LIB forecast of £160m and pm it to me on ADVFN.

Sparky pal

As for GW pumping the stock whilst offloading (as I posted previously yet some folks were still saying Miton were buying when the fact was the opposite). Not aware redemptions meant that they had to sell everything they held.

Will dig out that podcast, thanks. Strange isn’t it that I always try to post up my sources of info whenever I can or when you request it, but you never do!.

That reminds me, you posted either here or ADVFN that you had checked at companys house numerous other energy suppliers, think it was 30 companies you said, apologise if that’s not correct, to demonstrate that bad debt and provisions etc were on par with YU. Could you post up the names of the companys and the data. Only asking because you posted up here previously a list of certain things ie cessation of North Sea oil, renewables, etc etc, all or most of which was complete garbage which I called out with data and no response……..just flagging that you do list up incorrect facts without supporting them.

Sparky pal,

I have posted up comments and certain metrics when comparing Good , CNA and TEP.

I’ve traded GOOD because it was ripe for a bid, CNA I have zero interest in (as a behemoth comprising more than just energy supply) but TEP is a different beast IMO, and as I’ve posted numerous times is a true multi utility offering unlike YU, hence YU’s additional volatility, risk and total dependence upon wholesale energy prices.

If I felt that YU could deliver on its market share projections to counter a declining income stream associated with lower energy prices then it would look like a decent investment. But frankly I don’t, I don’t believe the hype about 7% market share thus becoming the UK’s biggest supplier to SME`s, bigger than British Gas, bigger than Octopus etc etc, and I don’t believe that the profits will keep increasing at the rate they have when wholesale energy was what 25x higher than before Putin invaded Ukraine. Their earnings growth has already fallen off a cliff, from a peak yoy growth of +547% in FY23 to only 7% growth for FY25 (its been falling since the peak in FY22, and we all know why……well apart from those folks here that believe that energy prices will return to their astronomical levels again and the sp will hit £100).

I’m here patiently waiting, I’ll trade momentum whichever direction it appears, but you know what my underlying thoughts are!.

Sparky pal

PS meant to add, and how much of that cash will they be free to distribute?

PPS tbh I’ve never read anything so far fetched in all my years doing this, £160m pmsl

Sparky pal

Can’t afford it :)

Post up the data, not the report, want to see it in black and white. You said in 24 months are you saying FY26?. Plus how are they going to get to a net cash position of double what it is now…impossible IMO.

SP Angel have £96m FY25, so are you saying Lib have net cash growing by c £64m in one year (SP Angel and Lib aren’t too far out as their info comes from YU)

Sparky pal

Returning to form, stupid response, spitting your dummy out like you always do.

According to you I’m the ex CFO, I’m a disgruntled employee, I’m Paul Scott, etc etc, you aren’t doing yourself any favours IMO.

For transparency I’m none of the above, just a chap trying to go about his business like everyone else. I just don’t believe this business will continue to generate the profits it has because it wasn’t down to their brilliance, it was down to record high energy prices, nothing more really. And yes I don’t particularly trust the BoD for the reasons I’ve posted up previously.

Sparky pal

“in 24 months this is forecast to be around £160m in cash”

By FY26?, not seen that, you reckon it will double from now until then?……how exactly when net cash only increased £3m in FY24 when you net off the C £50m from SmartestEnergy?. Love to know how they will manage that!.

Sparky pal,

Since last Feb they have a new liquidity covenant- fact

Since last Feb SmartestEnergy returned £49.8m - fact

Since last Feb the cash has sat there doing nothing - fact

Yes nothing is written down, as to the extent of their new covenants with Shell, I’m just proposing that it could be at a significant level (in excess of the £49.8m collateral required by SmartestEnergy particularly as the energy requirements have increased 78% since then). If not then what exactly are Shell getting from the deal for taking all the risks in procuring their energy requirements?. They sure as hell aren’t doing it for fun.

Sparky pal

“Last year they spend £4m on a share buy back and £9m advance ROC + around another £9m on dividends so say around £22m ish, not excat number as can be bothered to look up,

So 20% of cash mountain was spent.”

Nope, the buyback and dividends were funded via their capital recovery, not from their cash pike. Yes they paid £9m upfront for ROC (I still reckon they have £35m-£40m left to pay), so £9m out of cash circa 10% not 20%.

Yes fair point they could be working on an acquisition but still doesn’t explain the pitiful return on their cash pile, and until a deal is done that cash should be working for them a lot harder than it is. Even when they had c £32m cash they did nothing with it, not forgetting their bad debt provision is now c £32m if I recall correctly.

And yes we all know what you think should happen in distributing some of that cash , what is it you keep posting : a £10m-£20m buyback and a special dividend (you never say how much).

Sparky pal, no it’s not a fact it’s your opinion about me because you simply don’t like what I post.

If I’m boring then you should check out your postings, same old same old.

You have no opinion on why a business with a liquidity covenant that came into force when their cash went up to c £82m and haven’t invested a penny of it for over a year now!, oh come on now, you have an opinion about everything else ffs.

Please stick to the subject matter if you can or do what most do when they want to stock their fingers in their ears…..filter me.

Folks, I’m going absolutely nowhere so get used to it, the world doesn’t comprise of 100% like minded individuals.

Good luck for the 18th, are you going to repeat your usual predictions?

Sparky pal

Record energy prices!

It’s not rocket science is it, energy goes up YU’s profits go up, energy prices fall YU profits fall.

You don’t have any opinion as to why they have held £80m+ cash for over a year and it’s just say there earning minimal interest?

Any views on why they didn’t RNS the Clear Business partnership?, any views on why Clear Business want to offload their customers to YU?, any views on why Clear Business have a £350m contingent liability and increased it recently by £70m?.

You resort to insults whenever you don’t like my views or the facts.

2227

Filter away.

I take it you aren’t capable of accepting an alternative opinion, and get upset when your factually incorrect statements are called out.

All the best for the 18th

2227

They’ve only been paying a dividend since FY22 as prior to FY21 they weren’t making a profit, in fact they didn’t make a profit for 7 years. The only reason they will grow in terms of earnings is if the price of energy keeps rising at the previous record rates , and there’s no sign of that being repeated, UK gas price has been falling.

They have not beaten their forecasts prior to the boom in energy prices, quite the opposite. Plus the last TU stated their revenue forecast was not going to be met, or are you ignoring that?. H2 revenue was also forecast to grow 40% it only grew 20%, another significant miss on their own forecasts . So you are factually incorrect when you say they have beaten forecasts regularly for years, they did up to now!.

Appreciate you are a holder and like most think the sp, revenue and profits will somehow miraculously keep increasing irrespective of falling energy prices, that’s simply impossible.

Sparky pal

Any thoughts on why they’ve sat on £80m+ for a year now and done nothing with it?

Not particularly innovative of the BoD to only get minimal income from their cash pile rather than invest to grow the business - Perhaps along the lines of Clear Business and TEP and go multi offering vis franchises, or at least something other than 100% reliance upon factors they just have no control over, e.g. wholesale energy costs and how much a third party is charging them for their customers energy requirements.

2227

Sorry but 100% disagree:

“Markets do not scrutinize numbers as harshly as you do”