Member Info for Discodave4561

It’s definitely the US gas price not the UK:

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

2227

It’s the US gas price!. In your desperation to ramp you’ve not even bothered to check, an experienced investor my a%rse :)

Definitely not at a two year high.

https://www.ice.com/products/910/UK-NBP-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5863514&span=3

UK Natural gas price is now below 100p, as I type it’s 96.7p and has fallen 32% since it’s high in Feb.

On 6th March 2023 (two years ago) it was around 122p, so it’s not at a two year high and don’t know where that report got the data from.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

Sorry meant to add.

My Pal Sparky has looked at the accounts of a lot of other energy suppliers (from memory he mentioned he’d looked at about 30, I’m sure he will correct me if that’s wrong, but I could check his postings if had the time), so I’m sure he could confirm if a PAT margin of 5%-6% is “significant” as 2227 has stated. IMO it’s not given the elevated price of wholesale energy but guess at least it is a profit.

Sparky - no problem if you can’t post up some names of those energy companies you said you’d checked for bad debt provision, but if you do I don’t mind checking their PAT margins first some comparative research / info, thanks.

2227

Just for the benefit of folks looking in, you posted their profit margin is significant, personally I wouldn’t say that 5%-6% PAT margin is significant given the elevated energy prices. It should be noted that their operating margin isn’t as high as British Gas (non domestic supply of energy), and Clear Business energy supply has an average combined PAT margin that knocks spots off YU’s at nearly 17%, about three times higher.

No doubt as sn experienced investor you already carried out such due due diligence and research before you invested here.

On water margins aren’t very good, 3% at best so it’s not too concerning that they don’t supply any businesses with water at the moment (despite what some folks in here say - DYOR, check their accounts and reports. Zero income from water supply despite their board of potentially saving customers 40%).

Personally I think YU would be a much better proposition if they truly became a multi offering business along the lines of CB and TEP and others. Having all ones eggs in one basket is very high risk IMO.

2227

Yep just filter me and keep posting.

So you think the biggest risk is a fall in energy prices too, which is what I’ve been saying. A drop in wholesale = drop in income = drop in margin = drop in profits.

Glad you are thinking along the same lines as myself, although you think it may happen whereas I think that without any doubt it will happen, don’t know when but prices will fall back to ore Covid at some point. Yes I thought it would reverse a lot quicker but I’m a patient chap and happy to wait for the price here to collapse as well.

Just an opposing view but that’s what makes a market, shorters help liquidity and hedge funds do a lot more research too!.

Sparky pal

You do post up some garbage you really do - I’ve never said anything of the sort:

“Oh well just a quick scan all negative and UK heading to the Stone Age as all providers going bankrupt soon or only YU because they are so badly run.”

“Significant holding” pmsl, about time you came clean IMO. You fell for the bait I laid ages ago hook line and sinker. Been at this game long enough pal :)

2227

My apologies, you didn’t say profit margins at YU will fall , you said they may fall and that’s the risk.

Well IMO that risk will manifest itself in the not too distant future.

Have a pleasant day

2227

last one to your good self. and off topic slightly so apologies for that.

now you stated, boasted, that you are a very experienced investor but i note that you asked what shareholding does stelios have in ezj. really!, it takes seconds to find out for yourself, any experienced investor would be embarrassed imo to ask such a very basic question - the haji-ioannou family are shareholders of easyjet, the low-cost airline founded by stelios haji-ioannou. the family includes stelios, his brother polys, and his sister clelia. their current holding is c 15.3%.

i note that your own views and opinions are as rare as rocking horse ****e, you simply post up news articles and repeat parrot like the views of others, we’ll apart from the previously posted comment you made about the profit margin at yu falling in the next few years - exactly my point and the reason i’m here waiting patiently :)

2227

A very rare opinion by your good self in Jan:

“The real danger is the profit margin. It's exceptionally high at the moment and may drop steeply over the next few years.”

Couldn’t agree more, but again it’s not rocket science is it, particularly as they couldn’t make a profit until Putin invaded Ukraine. So you are acknowledging the fact that their profit margin will reduce, what exactly would be causing that decline?, only one thing isn’t it, the fall in energy prices thus their income thus their margin.

2227

Your comment about renewables and subsidies keeping energy prices high is very debatable. It may keep them high initially but not in the long term, plus there are much bigger factors than renewables which will determine which way energy prices go, as we are seeing now!.

You also posted:

‘Most of the electricity in the UK is produced from gas, wind and solar. If gas price goes up elctricity price goes up too. All investors know that apart from the time wasters.’

And nuclear, and yes I know that, it also means as I’ve stated that when gas goes down so does electricity, similarly when oil goes down so does gas. Think if you actually read my posts instead of spitting your dummy out you will see that I’m not a time waster, far from it!.

Have a good day………..a bit childish to say I should be reported just because you don’t like my views.

Insolvencies not seen at such a level since the financial crisis.

https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/insolvencies-soar-to-16-year-high-as-tax-hike-drives-bosses-to-close-up-shop/?amp

SME’s are clearly going to struggle in 2025 due to NIC. Insolvencies are already at a 16 year high.

https://www.credit-connect.co.uk/news/one-third-of-smes-will-have-to-raise-prices-this-year-as-nic-hike-bites/

Will have to dig deeper on the wholesale electricity pricing!

Catch you all laters, enjoy the moment in the sun……..a bit like wjat YU have been doing!.

stick to the subject matter please.

i’ve profited from trading yu as well you know. but i’d definitely question your boasts given you only appeared in 2021/22 and never posted up your trade, but all of a sudden you bought at a price a lot lower and many years prior.

your sng was a classic, you even asked your son in law to mention its potential on fb as he had a large number of friends and you were so desperate to cut your losses (one minute your trade was 35p, then you changed it to 40p - nobody forgets their real trades particularly when drowning).

catch you laters :)

ps you tried taking the **** out of me referencing my trades by how many pips i’d made, you didn’t even know what that phrase meant until i provided the info, then the embarrassment fell slap bang on you.

you need to grow up and also grow a pair!

2227

But you have replied to my post!

We aren’t here to boast about ourselves are we?, no IMO we aren’t, we are here to discuss and debate YU. So far you seem not to have too much of an opinion other than going on what other people say.

Good luck

2227

YU’s primary energy supplied is electricity, well in FY23 UK wholesale average price was 27p/KWh, in FY24 it had crashed to an average of c 7p/Kwh (according to Mr Google). So it fell 74%, so forget Sparkys gas obsession (which over the same period only fell 14%), that’s potentially why their income only grew 40% in FY24 despite supplying 78% more energy to customers. So to be fair, such growth wasn’t bad, but what will FY25 now look like if they fail to grow, and given their order book falling I’d say it’s unlikely, hence forecasts for only c 14% income growth in FY25.

The pinch point is getting closer IMO, energy (particularly electricity) falling at a faster pace than their customer base.

Interesting times.

YU profitability is a flip of a coin, will energy prices go up or will they fall, at some point energy could be at such a level that market share increases doesn’t mitigate the reduction. Back to where they were before the energy crisis.

Yes I will repeat, their H2 Rev growth was 50% lower than they forecast some months prior, let’s see what explanation they cite on the 18th, if indeed they do (given they didn’t explain why they failed to hit Rev forecasts at the last TU).

2227

Keep digging. Oil at 3 year low, nobody can know the future, I’m just banking on prices will fall eventually. Happy to wait.

“Cornwall Insight says UK energy prices are uncertain because of Ofgem’s ongoing consultations and global conflicts affecting the energy market.”