Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky Pal

You keep making childish insults, please stick to the subject matter, appreciate it’s difficult for you to grasp anything on a higher intellectual level.

No can’t you read, NG posted that he could see £30 a share by this month, okay he had a couple of weeks to go but that would be some rise required don’t you think?, oh sorry, my bad you aren’t capable of thinking for yourself you just accept fairy tales and Bobby’s fantasy’s.

Do I have to break it down to a child’s level for you with regards to energy prices and “back to Covid levels”?, try this, it doesn’t have to go back to pre Ukraine war prices if they can’t increase their volume / number of customers / energy supplied to mitigate a falling energy price, as I’ve explained before.

Sleep well

part 2

- market share 8% not a chance imo

- “share price will be over £30 in march next year” (2025), well its £14.20

- “100,000 meters at the year end in dec 24” - sorry they’ve said 88k.

- “5% market share by the end of 2025” - can’t see it imo, could be 2.5%-3% tops, depends if they acquire other energy suppliers?.

- “ that’s 165,000 meters! if they do that then 2026 turnover will be £2bn” - again no chance. fy24 rev c £645m, fy25 consensus forecast rev £744m, with similar growth for fy26 (which given the trend it’s more likely to be lower) is c £850m. that’s some way shy of £2bn.

i get that folks hiding will be optimistic, but there’s optimism and then there’s shear fantasy. ng was taking what the business said as gospel, but like most businesses they too will always be overly optimistic, it’s human nature, but when the delivered data sets clearly show their optimism / aspirations aren’t materialising then to maintain those predictions is imo completely disingenuous.

i will always challenge what i perceive to be highly unlikely, and that’s exactly what i have been doing, no end of insults will stop me from posting, in fact the more crap thrown the more i will defend, so tough ****e to those that can’t take it :)

Bloody phone! Sorry fans I’ll try again

Sparky Pal

I’ve concluded you are clueless tbh. You haven’t a scooby doo have you. You believe this will be £100 a share because someone on here said so, no other reason. You never challenged it you just accepted it.

The below isn’t for you as clearly you wouldn’t accept it or understand it and would do what you keep doing, name calling like a child. This is for some folks who actually may find it of use, they may not but it’s some balance rather than the constant crap that’s on here by perma bulls.

Right going on current data and forecasts and what they’d need to achieve to get to NG’s ridiculous £10 eps, with a PE of 10x (his figure not mine) to get to this ridiculous prediction of £100. They would need revenue of over £3.2bn revenue (taking FY24 Rev to eps data), at 10% pa income growth which is the FY25 forecast (in reality that will reduce unless they go via the acquisition route), so to get to £3.2bn revenue at CAGR 10% would take about 17 years.

The business with their forward projections (which are also a joke IMO) said it would take only 6 years plus to get to £3bn revenue, but their unbelievable thesis required average monthly contracted bookings to average £50m to begin with and increase exponentially to £110m average per month by the fifth year!. It’s all absolutely complete fantasy IMO, their FY24 average monthly bookings was only £42.6m a decline of 23% compared to FY23, so already their so called 7%-8% market share and growth projections are out of the window. They no doubt also used a higher pricing charge when they pronounced these projections and assumed it would remain at that level (although from what Ive seen they didn’t even mention the energy price as a variable).

Now let’s look at some other predictions NG made, just a very quick look at the postings and the first I came to where NG makes some forecasts (posted 17th July 2024):

“I am in full agreement with SNN, this company if it gets to 8% market share of the B2B energy business will be doing £10 EPS per year, and if you price that conservatively on 10x p/e you get to £100 share price.

The share price will be over £30 in March next year, if they are close to 100,000 meters at the year end in Dec 24. Priced at under 10x P/E. I am hoping they achieve 5% market share by the end of 2025. That’s 165,000 meters! if they do that then 2026 turnover will be £2bn”

To be continued !

Sparky Pal

I’ve concluded you are clueless tbh. You haven’t a scooby doo have you. You believe this will be £100 a share because someone on here said so, no other reason. You never challenged it you just accepted it.

The below isn’t for you as clearly you wouldn’t accept it or understand it and would do what you keep doing, name calling like a child. This is for some folks who actually may find it of use, they may not but it’s some balance rather than the constant crap that’s on here by perma bulls.

Right going on current data and forecasts and what they’d need to achieve to get to NG’s ridiculous £10 eps, with a PE of 10x (his figure not mine) to get to this ridiculous prediction of They would need revenue of over £3.2bn revenue (taking FY24 Rev to eps data), at 10% pa income growth which is the FY25 forecast (in reality that will reduce unless they go via the acquisition route), so to get to £3.2bn revenue at CAGR 10% would take about 17 years.

The business with their forward projections (which are also a joke IMO) said it would take only 6 years plus to get to £3bn revenue, but their unbelievable thesis required average monthly contracted bookings to average £50m to begin with and increase exponentially to £110m average per month by the fifth year!. It’s all absolutely complete fantasy IMO, their FY24 average monthly bookings was only £42.6m a decline of 23% compared to FY23, so already their so called 7%-8% market share and growth projections are out of the window. They no doubt also used a higher pricing charge when they pronounced these projections and assumed it would remain at that level (although from what Ive seen they didn’t even mention the energy price as a variable).

Now let’s look at some other predictions NG made, just a very quick look at the postings and the first I came to where NG makes some forecasts (posted 17th July 2024):

“I am in full agreement with SNN, this company if it gets to 8% market share of the B2B energy business will be doing £10 EPS per year, and if you price that conservatively on 10x p/e you get to £100 share price.

The share price will be over £30 in March next year, if they are close to 100,000 meters at the year end in Dec 24. Priced at under 10x P/E. I am hoping they achieve 5% market share by the end of 2025. That’s 165,000 meters! if they do that then 2026 turnover will be £2bn”

- market share 8% not a chance IMO

- “share price will be over £30 in March next year” (2025), well its £14.20

- “100,000 meters at the year end in Dec 24” - sorry they’ve said 88k.

- “5% market share by the end of 2025” - can’t see it IMO, could be 2.5%-3% tops, depends if they acquire other energy suppliers?.

- “ That’s 165,000 meters! if they do that then 2026 turnover will be £2bn” - again no chance. FY24 Rev c £645m, FY25 consensus forecast Rev £744m, with similar growth for FY26 (which given the trend it’s more likely to be lower) i

Sparky Pal, you have all the answers:

“So FY24 78% more energy supplied, wholesale only down 14% from FY23 but PAT growth down from 547% to 16%, hmmm!. Why is that Sparky?’

Meant to add that their contracted revenue per Mwh on average for energy supplied was 17% lower in FY24 than FY23, which isn’t too far off the reduction in wholesale gas. So the question above remains, that’s some unexplained drop in profitability. Non fixed at lower margin?, Opex costs increased disproportionately?, yes Sparky the old one, are Shell taking margin?.

Sparky Pal

‘Hmm Covid and war starting was over 3 years ago, peak energy costs was 2022 that was 2 years ago”

Hmmm gas price was still over 7 times higher Dec 2022, with contract lag guess what year their profits sky rocketed?, yeah give Sparky a coconut, it was FY23 when it grew 547%. For FY24 despite gas prices still being over twice what they were pre Ukraine war, and despite supplying 78% more energy, their bottom line growth is only 16%, and next year it’s forecast to be half that.

So FY24 78% more energy supplied, wholesale only down 14% from FY23 but PAT growth down from 547% to 16%, hmmm!. Why is that Sparky?

Sparky Pal

Energy prices are still twice what they were and yet theur profit growth is falling at a significant rate.

You simply won’t accept that they’ve benefited from black swan events, namely the energy crisis. Prior to that they couldn’t turn a profit.

Why are brokers forecasting that bottom line growth will reduce 50% next year?, errr let me think, could it be they are predicting that despite more customers the price they charge, the margin they take, will be reducing in line with falling wholesale prices.

As posted if they don’t acquire more customers at a rate that’s sufficient to mitigate declining energy prices / profits the earnings growth will keep reducing until it’s negative IMO. That’s their dilemma and if you can be bothered to look at the fundamentals (rather than blindly following broker forecasts) you will see that’s already happening. So far their order book though is going the wrong way, so are they discounting to gain more customers?, because they certainly as yet haven’t shown any signs they are looking for any inorganic growth.

So come on BK, use that cash to grow earnings otherwise the future will be even more solely reliant upon the energy price and nothing else. Octopus have the strategy sussed, not YU.

Sparky PAL

“Bored now and no need to shout with the PAL. Sign of issues needing to be heard like that”

PMSL, you post I’m filtered time after time, you say you won’t post again until results……….and the Sparky classic for when he has no answers and / or has been called out……a child like “bored now” response. Grow up.

As for the PAL, wasn’t deliberately shouting, besides you have called me worse things haven’t you Pal :)

Sparky Pal

“you seem to think they bully partners and take all the margin”

Never said they bully partners or take all the margin. They aren’t doing this for nothing are they. Along with risk mitigation via the covenants they will be taking some margin from the energy they sell to YU, if they can’t achieve their required margin then IMO any business would then take margin from their customers by raising the selling price. That’s normal business practice isn’t it, or do you think Shell would detrimentally cut their profits so YU can maintain theirs?. That’s what I mean when I say Shell could be taking margin from YU.

On that theme have you an explanation as to why H2 revenue growth was 50% lower than they forecast?, which then meant income for FY24 will come in below forecasts?.

Sparky PAL

As posted, energy prices don’t need to get back to pre covid or pre Ukraine for YU’s earnings growth to be non existent. Using the consensus earnings growth rates.

As for Shells deal with Octopus I haven’t a clue, likewise what the actual liquidity requirements that Shell have imposed on YU, who knows, we’ve been over this numerous times. Unlike yourself I try and think about why would a company holding £80m+ in cash do the things they’ve done without investing a decent chunk of that cash to generate growth in earnings?, not saying I know what the limit of their liquidity covenant is, we all know it exists, just the actions of the business suggest to me it’s a decent value (as posted it would be logical to assume the previous deal would set the benchmark, a minimum of £50m, yet their energy purchased has been 78% more - so what’s in it for Shell?, why would they be happy to take all the financial risks for anything less than what SmartestEnergy required?).

Sparky PAL,

So you now reckon net cash FY26 will be what?, rather than £160m, bear in mind that cash forecasts for FY24 were out by 24%. And netting off cash collateral they only generated c £3m in FY24 (yes they made £9m ROC payment but the balance could still be c £35m-£40m? in August).

The £12m capital recovery was used for the £4m share buyback (£4m) and the dividends (c £6m).

Spsrky Pal

“Remember 2024 was not sky high prices either they are more normalised so can’t use that argument.”

UK gas price in FY24 was still nearly twice what it was prior to the energy crisis. Also FY24 average gas price was only 14% lower than in FY23. So YU income is still clearly benefiting from elevated energy prices. Their bottom line growth rate has fallen dramatically from +547% in FY23, to a forecast of +16% for FY24, and 50% less growth forecast for FY25. Again demonstrating quite obviously that energy prices won’t have to fall to pre Ukraine war levels for their earnings growth to erode completely……the rating decline will be proportional to earnings decline.

As you say, unless they acquire other energy suppliers then earnings growth looks to be on a downward trajectory.

Sparky PAL,

So you do believe £100 a share, so I wasn’t lying was I?.

The £100 was from memory based in market share of 7% (11 years only managed 1.8%), and margins at the elevated level due to abnormal wholesale pricing. When did they say they would like 7%?, it’s an aspiration with zero published evidence to support that it is even feasible.

Yes agree inorganic growth via acquisitions could happen, but there’s been little indication. so far that that is in the pipeline. Plus I still maintain their true distributable cash is ring fenced, if they demonstrate that’s not the case then fair enough, my view will change accordingly.

So, you’ve agreed you believe in £100 a share, so how about the £160m net cash for FY26?, yes or no.

Good afternoon Sparky PAL

Thought you weren’t posting again:

“Right defo finished with this thread now after the domestic comment it’s laughable”

You never do what you promise, good to see you back. Perhaps you could tell folks whether you still believe they will have £160m net cash by FY26 (despite the fact SP Angels FY24 cash forecast was out by 24%), also while I’m on, could you also confirm whether or not you believe the sp will be £100? (yes I know it was NG that posted that forecast, never said it was you).

In both instances you never challenged those predictions, thus it’s reasonable to assume you agreed with them, that was my assumption too :)

As posted previously that a Death Cross was looking likely on the chart, well it has come to be.

It’s now looking like Oct last year after their interims, it then rebounded so a repeat could be on the cards next week?.

Perhaps a buyback of a decent size or special divi could provide the impetus. Tbh I’ll trade whichever way it goes if the strength is there.

See folks that’s quite positive! :)

Hey Sparky PAL

Sorry I missed your comment about me saying there was going to be a PW Jan 24.

Tit tut, I said IMO they could be issuing a PW in the Jan update because if you recall they had a CMD prior and the share price took a dive. You’ve made loads of predictions about the share price will rocket on the next TU etc, and you’ve proven to be wrong. Likewise my thoughts based on sp action following a CMD was also wrong, no big thing.

Please try to refrain from making personal remarks, it reflects worse on you IMVHO :)

Sparky PAL

So it’s a simple yes or no, do you believe they will have £160m net cash FY26 and do you believe this will be worth £100 a share?. In both instances why?

Guess you won’t answer as you will say I’m filtered, but that’s what you said over on ADVFN but you still managed to read my postings!.

I’m no liar.

Sparky Pal,

You do make me laugh, I posted on ADVFN : “ he (you Sparky) believes this will be the UK’s number one business supplier (but this business hasn’t stated how or when), they will have £160m net cash by FY26 (next year! but cash forecasts provided by the business are already coming in below forecasts, as are their forecasts) and based on these dreams he also believes the share price will be £100”

Now let’s take my statement in parts, the belief in £100 share price and the belief in £160m net cash.

- £100 a share. When NG posted that prediction did you challenge it?, no. So post up now do you think that’s feasible and if so why? and how?. If you don’t believe it then say so and I will apologise. I did challenge that prediction and you can check my reasonings for completely disagreeing so won’t repeat it again, but suffice to say the data used was highly unsupported IMO (ie 7% market share, and income / earnings forecasts generated based on abnormal energy pricing etc). The 7% market share by my calcs looking at British Gas recent data would then make YU the number one business energy supplier. Is that realistic, again IMO definitely not, in over ten years theur market share is 1.8% I believe looking at recent info (they may say it’s higher in their finals, but it won’t be significantly higher),

-£160m cash. Again post up if you believe they will double their net cash by 31st Dec 2026 (which unless I’m mistaken is next year and £160m is double £80m). If you don’t believe they will achieve £160m net cash then post up you don’t. If you recall you posted up the forecast for FY26 was £160m net cash, I challenged the source of that and you said it was Lib, then you seem to recall you heard it on a GW podcast, then you posted up a MP paid for article where it was included. I’ve asked you on ADVFN to say if you still believe it and if so how will that level of cash be achieved guven when you net off the collateral payback they only generated c £3m cash in FY24.

No lies, just you Sparky doing what you always do, spout childish personal comments rather than debate the subject matter and address the questions I’ve raised.

Sooner see a declining sp leading up to results as less chance traders selling on news, all IMO obviously.

Not to worry folks, according to some this will be worth £100 in a few years time…….oh and they’ll have £160m in cash too, all fantasy IMVHO.

Jlovie aka JohnDoe would be my guess?

Hope all is good for you :)