Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky PAL

Not being rude or childish. I’m challenging what you post, why?, because it’s a free country and I can.

Sparky Pal

Yes it’s another income source, but come on ffs, it’s 0.2% of their total revenue and at £56.77pa/per meter annuity income it’s not going to set the world on fire is it. Then there’s the finance cost on the £5m debt they took out to invest in smart metering growth (again debt taken rather than use any of their cash).

Sparky, one last comment made by Roland Head (Stockopedia) - he holds YU and outlines the very good metrics as others have posted here too. But as for the cash:

“It’s also worth pointing out that the c.£50m increase in net cash last year was primarily the result of a one-off return of collateral previously required for hedging. My sums suggest free cash flow was just £11.4m last year, due to adverse working capital movements and capex.

I don’t see a problem with the balance sheet but I do think it’s worth remembering that working capital movements can be large and frequent during the year. I tend to view the group’s cash position as an important source of liquidity, rather than as surplus to requirements”

Spot on - “an important source of liquidity, rather than as surplus to requirements”

Working capital at FY24H1 was £46.5m, (up from £32m H1 FY23)

Working capital at year end: FY24 £46.3m , (up from £32.3m FY24)

Don’t know the WC peaks and troughs throughout the year but clearly it’s up at the reported periods by 43%-45%, which will only increase as the business grows (even if it is at a slower rate going forwards).

FCF was £14.5m in FY23, so FY24 was down 21%, yet forecasts were for a FCF of £61m (SP Angel), another example of forecasts being miles out.

Don’t suppose for one minute Sparky that you will comprehend any of this.

IPC

Fair enough will read and digest.

But I’ve researched enough myself to know that their market share and income projections are, or let’s say seem to me, to be totally unrealistic with zero allowance for the biggest variable - wholesale energy. Which let’s be honest absolutely nobody can forecast with any accuracy.

Ps thanks for not resorting to name calling. We all don’t think alike about the future prospects of any business.

Sparky Pal

“Our shareholders now include a greater number of institutional investors.”

Who the fcuk do you think took the shares of Miton ffs.

Has the actual percentage of II holdings gone up?……..I haven’t a clue but do know they will spin everything

Sparky Pal

Defo not blind or stupid.

Okay whatever you say. There is no requirement to hold a certain amount of current assets / cash on the BS, in Sparkys works they don’t have a liquidity covenant, Smartest Energy had £50m collateral at 78% less volume hedged plus margin, but Shell have forgone any risk mitigation completely and in your works no margin either - jeez are you for real.

You were posting no sell on news, wrong, you were posting a £10m-£15m buyback wrong, a special div, wrong and a move off AIM, wrong again. As for acquisitions they say the same old same old blah blah blah but they would have had to report anything material to the market, hence the Clear Business was not an acquisition or the £12.3m you posted - and still the penny hasn’t dropped.

For the final time yes I don’t know the amount of cash they will have to keep to meet their new liquidity covenant but based on facts and how much collateral SmartestEnergy required with no liquidity covenant then it doesn’t take too much of a leap to be able to say IMO it must be a decent chunk (possibly in excess of £50m).

Ipc

“I am happy that YU can now safely manage a rising or decreasing energy price market whilst maintaining profitable margins”

You guessed I disagree. Margins are falling, income per Mwh is falling, they will need to keep increasing volume at a much higher rate r to maintain margins status quo and if /when wholesale falls further then volume needs to grow at a significantly higher rate. Can’t see it happening but only time will tell.

Cash forecasts were out by 24%, and no reason to suggest that their income, profits and cash will hit forecasts either. Again the broker is paid to promote the business and pump out number provided by the business - who forecast £3bn income based on £55m per month new bookings then rising to £110m, well it was c 23% below their forecast in FY24. It’s all aspirational rather than feasible IMO.

Sparky Pal

“Under no circumstance do YU have to post cash for Shell.”

Agree, no cash collateral, but they have a liquidity covenant, how many more times do you need to debate this?. A liquidity covenant will require a certain amount of current assets -in YU’s case as they have little other than cash on the BS, it will require a certain amount of cash to be on the books,. They have no RCF at the moment to draw on so it’s the chuffing cash. Do you honestly believe Shell would take all the hedging risk at just a margin?, if you do you are also living on another planet.

For over a year now they’ve done absolutely nothing with their cash, no buybacks no special dividends no acquisition. The £12.3m was not ClearBusiness book in itself, haven’t fully read their results to see what that may have been but it would include marketing as well. Clear Business was not an acquisition it was a partnership but unfortunately because the business refuses to communicate nobody knows what that entailed.

As I posted weeks ago, that could be very much a positive impetus for growth but we are all in the dark.

SP

Think you need to engage brain before opening gob.

Bye

SP

Last one re market share.

YU up 1.3%, Octopus up 1.7%

Sure if I went through the Ofgem reporting data that others have also seen some “rising tide” too.

Note that YU report market share from Cornwall Insight report, which I’m guessing that’s based on B2B suppliers only rather than the official Ofgem data? (will do some more digging when get chance).

Folks getting hung up on market share and number of meters, its energy supplied (up 78% can’t argue with that) , the cost of gaining that market share (£12.3m up 50%) and income per Mwh down 21%. Margins down, Rev up 40% pbt only up 12% (yes low double digits can’t be sniffed at, but againthe point is growth and profitability is slowing significantly - why?, wholesale energy price and tougher competition causing them to drop prices).

SP

If you can’t see that the “rising tide” was due to the energy crisis then you must live on another planet. That was my point and has been from day one.

Yes 40% growth is exceptional, again that wasn’t my point, it’s their spin and failure in hitting their forecast and now zero mention of the growth rate because it’s not as impressive.

As for my posting - I will post where I like and as much as I like, thanks.

Ps I’m not in the habit of getting excited at this game, as posted if this is now rebounding I will play it, if it continues to drift I will trade that. Tbh I don’t particularly care what it does. All I know is longer term this will not be £100, it’s more likely to be £10 or less. Happy to wait too :)

Tug

The bulk of the info was already known, it’s their FY 25 data and outlook that wasn’t known. Order book growth going from more than doubling to only 8% for this FY says it all IMO in terms of how growth is slowing exponentially compared to falling energy prices.

I note that they are now resorting to a range for FY25 income, last year was a more precise percentage growth rate, why?, because it’s all spin now as it’s getting harder to impress, just like their “approaching £650m” income for FY24 but zero clarity around why it was only 40% growth not 50% as forecast originally.

Bod

Of course it’s a rising tide has lifted all boats - the energy crisis ffs. Now we have a declining tide and the outlook doesn’t look so good, in their own words.

Unbelievable IMO that some folks refuse to make the connection between abnormal energy pricing and the performance of this business. They are an intermediary, they produce nothing, they simply buy energy and then sell it - they had to increase their marketing spend by 47% to miss their income forecast for FY24, how much this FY to gain 15% income growth down from 40%?.

An in line and fairly downbeat outlook, let’s see how Mr Market sees it.

No surprises really, no buyback, no special div, another moan (which IMO is embarrassing) about lack of II interest (so sort it out BK that’s why you doubled your remuneration isn’t it?), cash still sitting there doing very little (still say a big chunk is not distributable due to liquidity covenant).

Contracted order book growth for FY25 only 8%, or more than doubled for FY24.

After 11 years only 2.8% market share and going on their order book their share growth will clearly slow up significantly.

mmmm

Sparky Pal

Does look like that, but at the end of the day more sellers and down she went.

Noted that the closing price elsewhere is incorrect and would, if a normal day tomorrow show a gap down on open.

So will a rebound start, or a sell on news (never know some longer term holders may still possibly take their profits), or a fairly muted reaction?. Nobody will or can know.

Personally some clarity around why H2 Rev growth was significantly lower than they forecast , also sone explanation as to why contract income per Mwh was down 17% on average (meter numbers aren’t that important is volume and income per Mwh), are they distributing a decent chunk of their cash and Q1 FY25 whats trading been like and their outlook.

Sparky Pal

You are clueless.

“Industry comments in the media have warned that the Budget measures will tip large numbers of SME retailers, restaurateurs, pub operators and other labour-intensive businesses over the edge.”

https://opusllp.com/budget-cost-increases-and-business-insolvency/

Insolvencies surge to 16 year high:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/18/insolvencies-surge-bosses-give-up-reeves-tax-raid/

Sparky Pal

You do it every time, incapable of joining the dots!. You think every SME has no choice but to use YU as its energy provider?, nope. Yes of course energy is vital to most businesses but they have choices.

Then you ramble on about inflation and prices going up, including higher energy, and what exactly is the associated impact on YU’s customers!. Revelling in the fact that growth has stalled / stagflation but not understanding that that impacts YU customers and YU itself. Ffs you are so blinkered.

2227

They are coming down!. Well if you look at the UK gas instead of your US gas!.

As posted YU pinch point is more about volume now anyway, can see that in the numbers if folks could be bothered to look!. That said a declining energy price certainly won’t help obviously.

To repeat - volume up 78%, gas price down only 14% (their contract income per MWh down 17%) but only PAT growth down from 547% to 16%.

Blimey Sparky rant rant rant.

“you keep stating YU is a corrupt basket case’ - never stated anything of the sort, you are the liar.

Yes IMO at some point BK will for the benefit of liquidity and the business have to do a secondary placing. It will have to be at a discount if it’s a sale of any decent size. That’s just how it is.

The company themselves have stated numerous tines that energy prices have normalised so what’s your point?

As for the PW we’ve already discussed that so not repeating, but it was a sound view IMO given the sp action at the time combined with a recent CMD.

You’ve made worse predictions, every TU or results you’ve said the price will rocket, when it hasn’t its tanked.

As for placing a short you seem to forget that my first position here was long, I’m not too fussed tbh which way it goes I play the momentum. Also posted that I’m not a gambler, you don’t listen do you?.

You’ve posted now they’ve made £4m interest in their cash, really, please show me where you got that from because last time I looked at their interest income it was c £2m. Not that you will answer, you never do.

Then you say also “ When in fact a record breaking year across all metrics beating most high growth stocks and on a histricsl PE of 7 with 1/3rd MC in cash…..”

Agree, record breaking, as for beating most high growth stocks you will have to evidence that very bold statement. PE 7 yes so what and okay 1/3 mc in cash, but you know what I’d say about that, but yes technically you are correct.

As for not accepting a slight revenue miss, you simply don’t understand the market really do you, they expected a beat or at least clarity around wtf their revenue will be, they said it was 40% growth but they forecast 50% growth , then they said approaching £650m rather than saying £644m, trying to make it sound better. Then any idiot apart from you could see that H2 income growth was half what they previously forecast it to be, and you think the market would ignore that?, if you do then you are more clueless than I thought.

As for W7L believe what you like, my IGG account says different.

Please cut out the insults, asked numerous times now, it’s embarrassing given how old you are to be behaving in such a way :)