Member Info for Discodave4561

Oh dear Sparky old Pal

Wondered when you’d show up, yes they may well achieve that, I was wrong. Do you know how exactly that is quantified by Cornwall Insight?, if you do then please let us all know - is it customer connections / meters?, or is it volume supplied? , or is it excluding larger commercial users or just SME’s?, Love to know.

As with meters supplied it’s not truly representative of income or profit but hey nothing I post registers with your good self.

So have you thought yet about how much in your opinion of the £80m cash can they use for their “strategic investment”,?would it be easier if you confirmed whether or not you believe is all of it?

Post up your thoughts instead of just constantly posting they have a “war chest of cash for acquisitions “

Anyway as I’ve posted, a rebound if it closed above 15 was on, I’m now waiting to see what happens at 1675.

IPC

They clearly state in “our position” - £3bn income expected year 6. As per the criteria I.e. new contract income £50m/month.

It’s IMO their “aspiration” their “target” their “forecast”, call it what you want but it was not included just as a demonstration it was used to promote what they believe the business could achieve.

Looks like I’m living rent free in someone’s empty head!…. doesn’t take much to figure out who it is :)

IPC

C’mon, why did they put that out there?, don’t think for one minute it was to demonstrate just how compound growth can work!, as I posted it’s their “aspiration” IMO, is it they’re actual KPI / Target who knows but making that forecast / prediction call it whatever you want publicly available was not IMO a simple demonstration and is it not their thesis in how they are going to achieve their “stated” market share (Sparky posted up they’d said a target of 7% was it of the UK market - from memory I’d challenged what their target date for this was but as ever no response, Perhaos you know?).

Then NG and SNN used this market share to extrapolate £2bn income for FY26 (which is not what they are forecasting now), and oddly then on to £3bn which matched the chart and data we are both referring to. Which again I cited as being pure fantasy and I will stick to that - or are you saying that £3bn by year five will be achieved? (Now is year one possibly two it’s unclear based on FY23).

Sorry it’s a target of £50m per month, then £110m. With average contracr period 24 months and 70% renewal rate. They’ve said they’ve increased contract periods but don’t give the average for FY25 or the renewal rate from what I can see (I’m sure someone will post up if they did).

I’m just saying they are not hitting the new income per month that they hoped.

IPC

According g to their own growth / market share projections new average contract needs to be £55m per month, then doubling by year 5 to hit £3bn income.

As previously pointed out it’s their “aspiration” IMO with little evidence to suggest it will be achieved, but some folks here seem to take it as a given and based on this think it will be £100 a share - complete fantasy IMO, currebt brokers forecasts clearly don’t substantiate that this will be achieved - thus given brokers go on what the company says, then the company s forecasts are lower than their original “aspirations”, but they won’t publicly say that will they, but its there in black and white.

Yep income per MWH will follow wholesale trends, but again folks here think it will just keep going up and up and up.

Monkey

Sorry that you don’t seem to like an alternative viewpoint. But you are free to counter my views too, but you don’t for whatever reason.

It is good that the market has been positive on their finals, have posted elsewhere a rebound was on the cards, and I’m happy to trade that. But yes longer term I don’t believe their profitability is sustainable despite their aspirations.

Good luck

Sparky Pal

Still waiting: how much of their cash do you think is available to be used for strategic investment.

As for gas price, yes I said it will fall back to pre Ukraine war, and over time it still could. You only look a few feet ahead of your nose.

Whenever gas goes up you post and ramp, silence when it falls, and it’s down 26% since Feb 12th, but not a whisper. It’s not what YU are buying at and has been fixed.

Could find lots of posts you’ve made about your predictions that have failed to be realised…..no great shakes in the scheme of things.

Ipc

Their target is £55m per month, their income per MWH has been falling too.

Some perma bulls on ADVFN getting a tad bit excited because gas spot (which isn’t what YU will be paying) has gone above 105p, no mention about the fact it’s fallen 26% since mid Feb.

Think they need to re-read what they said in their outlook!.

Following the death cross is does look like a rebound is on.,close above 15.

Filtered postings no doubt having their usual pop , I’m so gutted!.

Like I’ve stated, I’ll trade the legs off this in either direction but longer term waiting for the reversal, whenever that is :)

Sparky Pal

“He doesn’t listen and reels out the same stuff brings nothing to the table just rinse and repeat rubbish. Not a single comment of the CMD, because the entire team came across as experienced, focussed and driven.”

Nothing to say, it’s a sales pitch. They talk the talk but can they walk the walk and deliver what they say.. And when the BoD make promises and fail to deliver then they should be upfront and open about their failures too, but that’s not the ethos at YU.

I have a very different view of the BoD to be honest and how they actually treat their customers. I’m very cynical when it comes to where and whom I will invest my money . You on the other hand see positives and nothing but positives which is fine, but I will always challenge what you post if I don’t believe it or if the facts and data contradict what you say. That’s supposedly what these boards are all about, but time and time again you start with the personal insults. Which I should ignore and try to, but occasionally I will reply in kind……which I will from now try not to.

Sorry IPC trying to type fast on my phone whilst out and about!, will try again (I know some here get touchy about typos).

IPC

Fair point but everything in terms of their operating costs, marketing etc combined with lower margins and income growth is putting lots more pressure on their cash flows IMO. FCF was only £11.4m, SPAngel had forecast a FCF of £61m for FY24. Yes they made the £9m upfront ROC, but they also implemented their capital recovery to pay for dividends and the £4m buyback rather than draw on cash. Don’t know your thoughts but would guess this years remaining ROC payment could be around what the total was last year (c £35m from memory) as obviously the more energy they supply the higher the ROC.

Their WC requirements will IMO vary month by month quite substantially given the business they are in, the interim and finals are again IMO not representative of their peak requirements . And yes Shells liquidity requirement comes in to play too.

Sparky Pal

When people resort to hurling insults then they show how incapable they are for intelligent debate.

Have you thought about how much of the £80m could be available for investing?

My guess is you’d prefer to get personal though rather than answer in a civilised manner.

IPC

Fair point but everything in terms of their operating costs, marketing etc combi ec with lower margins and in ine growth is putting lots more pressure on their cash flows IMO. FCF was only £11.4m, SPAngel had forecast a FCF of £61m for FY24. Yes they made the £9m upfront ROC, but they also implemented their capital recovery to pay for dividends and the £4m buyback. Don’t know your thoughts but would guess this years remaining ROC payment could be around what the total was last year (c £35m) as obviously the more energy they supply the higher the ROC.

Their WC requirements will IMO vary month by month quite substantially given the business they are in, the interim and finals are again IMO not representative of their peak requirements . And yes Shells liquidity requirement comes in to it.

Sparky Pal

Why don’t you post up what you think, tell everyone how much of their £80m cash is available to be used for “strategic investments”?, and why you have cone to that figure.

Because you post as if the entire £80m is there to be invested. Well it’s not.

Sparky Pal

Agree the market share may well be delivered but as with other metrics they live to promote, it’s income and profit that’s important and £2bn (as forecast by NG for FY26) will definitely not be met, nor will their £3bn at 7%-8% market share. Income growth they projected was new contract £55m per month (FY24 was only £46m), then doubling in the final growth year of £110m per month. But they are now only forecasting a 15% growth in income for this FY (down from what was originally 50% growth in FY24), to 10% growth the year after.

I note now they are starting to throw in milder weather hitting income (£9m which still wouldn’t have met their original income forecast), whilst a valid reason, their projections can be significantly inaccurate due to obvious variables that are impossible to accurately predict.

You seem to take everything they say as written in stone, zero challenge, black and white, unbelievable IMO.

Sparky Pal, you are the child. It’s frightening to think that you invest (allegedly) but have zero understanding of basic fundamentals.

As per their own words (FY23 presentation), the cash collateral (c £50m) was a benefit to their working capital requirements.

From the FY24 results working capital at interims and final reporting dates is fairly consistent at circa £46m. There will be significant fluctuations to this throughout the year. The working capital required will increase proportionally as income increases, they have forecasted (mid £745m Rev up 15%), so their baseline WC could be £53m. Their net cash generation was only c £3m, they have ROC in August of IMO c £35m, then there’s the Shell minimum liquidity requirement (which we do not know what it is but INO it’s highly likely to be in excess of their peak WC cycle).

BK has said that the cash is for strategic investment, but he’s not talking about all of the £80m, it will be a small amount after all the other cash outflows and the covenant. The guy knows how to spin, just like his promise to improve comms to the market!.

Sparky Pal

You really are clueless aren’t you, spin spin spin. You believe all of BK’s “promises”, the guys full of it. Try researching what a liquidity covenant is, then research what working capital is, then look at the BS.

Roland Head (Stockopedia) is spot on:

“It’s also worth pointing out that the c.£50m increase in net cash last year was primarily the result of a one-off return of collateral previously required for hedging. My sums suggest free cash flow was just £11.4m last year, due to adverse working capital movements and capex.

I don’t see a problem with the balance sheet but I do think it’s worth remembering that working capital movements can be large and frequent during the year. I tend to view the group’s cash position as an important source of liquidity, rather than as surplus to requirements”

Sparky Pal

As I’ve pisted previously, IMO it’s had its moment in the sun and benefitted tremendously from a war, growth is slowing up by some margin now and the costs of growth increasing. Operating costs up 44%.

Coming back to the cash, net cash £85m (netting off collateral only +£3m cash generation), WC requirements £46m, so £39m headroom, but WC FY25 according to SP Angel is £154m on £715m income. (their mid range Rev forecast is 4€=% more than the £715m). £39m just isn’t going to cut it using SP Angels previous forecasts (Jan 2025), I’m assuming their WC is not right?, perhaps you could post up what Pan/Libs revised Working Capital firecasts are for this FY (doubt you will).