Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky

“Biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world take a stake and you think they haven’t done due diligence ?”

Never said anything of the sort. Just try reading what I posted, repeat: hedge funds are known to carry out a lot more research into their positions.

https://thehedgefundjournal.com/hedge-fund-research/

A bit old but it’s as true today as ot was then (more so IMO given market volatility and data analytics etc):

“Over the past few years, UK hedge funds have begun to reach out for better and faster business information – actionable intelligence that goes beyond the standard output of the equity analysts. Routine due diligence is not enough; investors are now looking for specific business intelligence products – especially for their hedge fund placements – that can enable them to identify investment opportunities that the herd has missed.”

Sparky

Why the aggression all the time ffs?

All I posted was in relation to JPM’s short position and you bang on about Norge (whom I have t got a clue what they do hold, do you?) and Goldman which again they don’t hold 3% or more and havent a clue what they do hold, good for them!.

If you think someone taking out a short position above 0.5% for the very first time since YU has been listed is of zero significance then you definitely myst try changing those rose tinted glasses of yours, likewise if you think that’s the only short position by hedge funds then again you seriously need to go to specsavers.

It’s a well known fact that hedge funds do research their positions in a lot more detail than II’s going long.

Yes it’s positive that Norge have a position but jeez it’s less than 3% so one could argue it’s not exactly a high conviction play for them and their $1.8 TRILLION pot!.

Jlovie

Who knows what JPM know about what PM may or may not be doing but IMO that’s unlikely to be the primary reason for their position given redemptions for PM has been well publicised.

They definitely will have carried out a hell of a lot of research as is the norm ,

JPM short position 0.76% on 21st March.

Suspect others will pop up once they are in excess of the 0.5% threshold.

Thanks to gsw on ADVFN!

Holders shouldn’t go the nominee route when purchasing shares!

Thanks IPC but wouldn’t expect any other response concerning energy brokers.

Still looks like there’s a seller, closed my long SB as little volume again and didn’t even manage to breach SMA200 resistance.

Sit and wait too see where now.

Jlovie

Thanks for the info on TEP.

As for TEP marketing model they’ve been doing that for over 25 years now and not aware of any misselling litigation. The partners only recommend UW it’s up to the individuals to decide if they use UW. They get full training and are classified as self-employed. IMO no difference to any other business that has sales staff on commission.

Thanks for the article though, if you do know of any misselling claims would be interested to see the info.

For transparency I don’t hold TEP

but it is on my watch list.

There are potential misselling issues / risks for YU regarding energy brokers. Lots of recent media attention concerning litigation and claims. YU stopped taking on new brokers a while ago for some reason.

https://www.stephens-scown.co.uk/business-disputes/energy-broker-litigation-are-you-getting-what-you-were-promised/#:~:text=Secret%20commission&text=In%20the%202024%20case%20of,not%20any%20of%20the%20details.

https://www.weightmans.com/media-centre/news/secret-commission-claims-on-the-rise-in-energy-broker-litigation/

Energy deals 'scandal' could see firms win thousands https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-68072768

Jlovie

What marketing?, it’s done by UW members and shareholders as far as I know.

How about the risk to YU from using energy brokers?, legal claims already in the media. Note too that BK started as an energy broker.

Sparky

And how much did Premier offload?, 2%?, 3%?

Sparky

Doesn’t really matter what rating you or I think should be applied, the market has so far already decided, and so far it’s single digit.

Why?, a few reasons IMO, as you say it’s a fairly new supplier, hasn’t too much history of profitability ergo hasn’t proven itself in terms of sustainability, it doesn’t have much diversification and yes it’s had a dubious history (the falsification / error in revenue recognition in their accounts - the market takes a long time to forget such things).

Anyway, shall we move in now and put this to bed as we have discussed sufficiently now and we will never agree so what’s the point.

Given that Pan / Lib suggest that YU value should be aligned with the PE of TEP (which I will always say isn’t a fair comparator) I thought I’d run a screen on the relative PE’s of all listed companies that supply energy and multi offerings (I omitted water supply as that would then include water companies that don’t actually supply energy so IMO irrelevant).

Rolling PE

OPG 3.8

DRX 4.5

CNA 7.7

YU 8.1

SSE 9.8

JEL 12.6

NG 13.8

TEP 15.0

GOOD 18.6

Average 10.4

1 year Forward PE

OPG 3.8

DRX 5.4

YU 8.1

CNA 9.7

SSE 9.8

JEL 14.2

NG 13.7

TEP 14.9

GOOD 18.6

Average 10.9

Using just a PE metric then would agree YU appears to be of decent value but still say it shouldn’t be compared to TEP, which is rated at the higher end and understand why their broker prefers to compare YU with TEP for that very reason. Comparing to GOOD would be a difficult argument given it’s in the process of being bought out and it’s 100% green energy.

Would assign a rating of 8x to 10x as being a fair and reasonable rating IMO. Folks will clearly have their own opinions on ratings but from a peer group perspective the averages were considerably less than TEP’s as was the 5 year average PE for the peer group at 10.3x.

Other metrics I’ve looked at ie Price to Tangible Book, then YU has the 13th highest ratio out of 15 utility companies. Depends on which metric and what businesses are truly comparable (which none have completely identical business offerings and models of operation etc). Depends as ever on unbiased / biased view points, but from my experience using a house broker is a very biased view points!.

Ps I’ve researched this in depth previously, hence my views posted here and elsewhere.

….and straight away we get the personal and very immature response.

Unbelievable

IPC

If Sparky ,or anyone for that matter , posts something I disagree with I will post my views up.

Let’s just say if Sparky keeps repeating what I’ve already responded to then yes I will refrain from replying from now on as agree it doesn’t add anything.

Sparky Pal

“you seem to forget yu is in growth mode but taking baby steps before running and not doing a bulb.”

Their growth has slowed up significantly now , as expected and will force heavier discounting going forwards.

As for market share, it’s based on the number of meters not the volume supplied which as I’ve posted numerous times is not aligned with income growth which didn’t double did it!. Plus market share for Octopus grew more than YU.

So, how much of their £80m cash war chest will they be spending?….take it you believe it’s all there available to be utilised for buybacks, special divs, buying up other utility companys etc?. Well there’s been zero sign of anything like that for over a year now.

As for your predictions on gas pricing, no point commenting as it’s utter nonsense.

Sparky Pal

The FY 25 PE for TEP is 14.9x falling to 13.6x in FY26.

CNA FY25 PE is 9.6x falling to 9.3x in FY26

Consensus target price for YU is 2075p, that’s a PE of 9.8x which is on a par with CNA.

Personally I’d only go to 8x but then I would wouldn’t I :)

Have you a target based on fundamentals and your thoughts or do you just go with what their broker says?

Sparky Pal

Their house broker is PAID to promote the business to encourage investment into the business, they will cherry pick data in order to do that, they won’t point out any negatives. They are like a pi talking their own book, like you who will never think of any negatives at all - you once said YU have zero risks associated with the business. Blinkered 100%.

So post up the other utilities Pan/ Lib mention as possible peer group members.

Do you believe everything that someone who’s paid to be positive says?

Sparky Pal

You just believe everything don’t you. Their house brokers are paid to promote the business, why not compare to CNA, SSE?, because their metrics are on a par with YU, mmmm, let’s pick a utility that is more favourable to demonstrate value.

As for the cash, so how much of the £80m do you think is available to invest?, stop dancing around the question just give your opinion.

As for traders, didn’t say all of your supposed / guessed purchases were traders, don’t know, neither do you and it’s obvious you haven’t a clue about trading in general and how leveraged tax free products work that facilitates substantial sums to be utilised. Funds are still IMO suffering from redemptions but let’s wait for your RNS’s that you seem to know will come as a matter of fact.

Sparky Pal

TEP has a completely different business model, with none of the historical baggage YU has, little comparison IMO.

As for you knowing II’s are buying that’s just a guess. As posted traders use leveraged products so have the capacity to make large trades. It’s Friday, decent couple of days trading, take some off the table for a nice long weekend?.

When do you think they will invest their £80m into strategic acquisitions?

Could be taking a breather tomorrow then hopefully on to 1675 resistance. Fairly tight Trailing stop and let’s see :)

IPC

We have a different perspective on their model and why it’s been included in three previous AR’s. In FY23 they did include the £3bn revenue from their revenue model in the section on growth and their current position. Again I did not believe their model hence my postings and clearly now it’s obviously not correct they’ve dropped it. Again it’s up to individuals to decide why they used to include it and publicise their projections and now they don’t. Unlike yourself I will call it what it is, when growth was accelerating it was a very positive way to demonstrate what growth could be, now growth has slowed and their metrics don’t now churn out the same predictions for revenue, ie £3bn by year 6 (which would in effect be FY30, they’ve dropped it as it’s not now so positive. Again my overall point was that some on here used those projections on the basis they believed they would come to be and posted up that the share price could then be £100_

The £100 a share was fantasy, I challenged that and received as I still do nothing but abuse. No offence but assuming you were a holder at the time of those postings then why didn’t you challenge it?. I will always stand by what I’ve said regarding this, that’s my view and clearly now the model doesn’t provide an increase to the previous 6 year projection of £3bn.

IPC

Their revenue projection model (as per the chart we are referring to) was first included in their FY20 report, prior to that the previous CFO didn’t include it in their reports. It looks like they used it because growth had started to accelerate, which makes sense.

Clearly they input the current years metrics into their model for it to identify growth in year 6 assuming year one is the following financial year. So fundamentally it’s highly unlikely to be statistically correct, and year after year it will change, but unfortunately some on here based their £100 a share on those projections and basically that was my point.

It doesn’t look like their model actually includes key variables that will obviously have a significant impact ie commodity pricing, longer range weather forecasts , macros impacting SME’s etc, it just uses the latest metrics from the business itself. Just a pity they don’t compare to actual forecasts (which again was my overriding point really).

I