Member Info for Discodave4561

Sparky Pal

How old are you?, me thinks you are Rip Van Winkle!

Never said the dividend was rubbish, your sidekick the little pip boy was constantly spouting folks are buying for the final dividend. Which is 41p, which at today’s price is 2.5% yield.

You keep banging on about TEP but as you’ve posted they aren’t a one trick pony like YU, they are a true multi utility provider unlike YU. They are rated accordingly as is YU, got over it.

So have you any bear points about YU?, you once said they have zero risks / headwinds, which is an astonishing viewpoint.

YU do have some bull points, errr give me some time and I’m sure I’ll come up with some. Oh yeah they are taking market share (at what cost!), they have done phenomenally well (due to the energy crisis), they do appear to have decent management (well apart from their crap comms and compleye disdain for their shareholders).

Enjoy your sleep, again and again and again zzzz

Hovering around the SMA200 at the moment, no clear direction IMO.

Recent buying possibly a rising tide or for the final div (2.5%) , either way the theory goes this will fall on ex equivalent to the div, then a long wait until any update on trading so as is the norm no volume and drift down.

But then again as the perma bulls / rampers keep saying they will announce a buyback and force poor old JPM to close their position. Hang on, they’ve had “surplus” (allegedly) cash of 80m plus for over 15 months now and for some reason decided the shares aren’t cheap enough to buy any. Yes they bought a few from cash via capital recovery and took out £5m debt to fund smart metering, mmmm!.

Sparky Pal

Very aggressive again today aren’t you, chill fella, it takes opposing views to make a market.

As for TEP, yes energy is about 87% of their income. Broadband and mobile is about 10% and insurance plus cash back card etc circa 3%.

But do you happen to know the respective margins?. I’ve looked previously and unfortunately they don’t seem to do segmental reporting.

You don’t know what they are paying EON for their direct energy supply requirements, which was a 20 year contract (running out in 8 years I believe). But if you do know if it’s more or less competitive than Shell then post up.

Yes gas has increased slightly to 86p, which is not too much above the FY24 average of 85p, and a decline is likely over the next month or so.

It’s not just me chap that’s been saying it’s “normalising”, most suppliers are saying the same, including YU!. From 840p’ish to 86p I’d say it’s normalising, but accept it’s not back to pre energy crisis brought about by the war in Ukraine.

Energy Utilities doing well, some are!:

CNA 1.6% below 52w high

TEP On par with its 52w high

YU 18% below its 52w high

Long wait for their July TU!

No TU until July.

Saw this from the CNA update 8th May:

Centrica Energy is currently expected to be towards the bottom of its medium-term sustainable adjusted operating profit range for the year, with profitability heavily weighted to the second half. This is primarily due to more challenging market conditions in the gas & power trading segment, while our LNG and RETO businesses continue to perform strongly.

Assume Shell has experienced the same “challenges”, impact on YU margins?.

No TU here until July.

Noted that Centrica in their 8th May TU stated:

Centrica Energy is currently expected to be towards the bottom of its medium-term sustainable adjusted operating profit range for the year, with profitability heavily weighted to the second half. This is primarily due to more challenging market conditions in the gas & power trading segment, while our LNG and RETO businesses continue to perform strongly.

Assume Shell has experienced the same “challenges”, any impact on YU?.

Sparky Pal

I’d go and see your doctor if I were you.

Maybe if you stopped being so childish and making personal insults this board would be better off.

Yes overall I see more downside here than upside over the medium / longer term but that shouldn’t mean I can’t post my views without you and the like making their usual childish remarks.

You keep calling me a trader, I’m not a trader, but I will go short or long on stocks where there is clear momentum, in either direction.

I could do as you do and keep posting all the things you’ve said where it’s either not happened or your views are complete and utter rubbish, but I’d prefer not to. But I will always challenge the crap.

So why don’t you post ip what you think the future could look like for YU, I’m not talking about what analysts say, what do you think both in terms of the bull and bear case?

That should have been for the benefit of the share price - bloody phone.

Look at the chart and the fantastic rise which definitely occurred due to the energy crisis, nothing more, couldn’t make a profit before wholesale energy went ballistic.

Look at their last results - Rev up 40% (H2 growth was half what they originally forecast), energy supplied up 78%, market share (which is purely based on the number of businesses not meters or energy) nearly doubled but bottom line earnings only up 11%. And it’s forecast to decline this FY.

Why is that Sparky do you think?, what will happen when their discounting to keep / gain market share , at reducing margin, doesn’t exceed the rate of fall in wholesale and Shells charge?……..it’s not rocket science!, they don’t have a USP, they just buy and sell energy.

Sparky Pal

You really are so blinkered it’s unreal.

- placing was an opinion that still could happen and IMO should happen for the benefit of the shareholders price and liquidity. That would be a positive .

- peace in Ukraine will happen, thats a certainty, we just don’t know when.

- PW again was an opinion, given the share price action of after their CMD, then results and it did crash.

- Stocko also has it as speculative but you disagree despite that being in black and white too.

You are constantly yawning and tired, perhaps you should get that checked out?

I have been all over this since £10, and still am. But as I’ve posted my main play is to see this fall back a lot more, as energy prices keep declining so will their profits, as can be seen already if one is prepared to look - earnings growth has already collapsed from the heady days due to the energy crisis / Ukraine war, from +547% growth to only +6.5% in FY26.

Sparky Pal

From a reputable source Schroders we’re buying in March 2.62%, so sue me if they now hold in excess of 3%.

As for Investec who knows and it’s we’ll documented that PM we’re sellers despite folks here posting they were buying.

Saying I’m insane when you believe this is worth £100 a share based purely on what’s been posted up here, is nothing short of hilarious :)

Am I still filtered?, you posted that more than once, it’s in black and white, and clearly it was a big fat lie!

Sparky Pal

All because something is in “black and white” doesn’t mean it’s true. Simply Wall Street is absolutely not a valid source .There is zero regulatory evidence that Schroders have over 3%, that’s a fact chap and that’s what I posted.

But hey you believe anything that aids your ramping.

As for JPM, yes of course they will have to buy back 0.65% as and when they close their position, they may well increase their short at some point though, who knows. As for them being in profit or a loss at the moment then you definitely do not know that. Or are you saying they didn’t have any position before it was declared by the FCA?, they could have been short below 0.5% since this was at c £19.55!, we just don’t know - hence my sarcastic comment about them being a bit late to the party :)

sparky pal

you keep making references to me, generally on a personal level, despite saying i’m filtered , so i’m simply defending myself and my views as i have from day one when you posted up false info about their bottom line profit margin (when it was actually their bull **** ebitda margin - big difference too if i recall but get it aided your incessant ramping).

schroders apparently over 3% but zero evidence of that other than a crap ai driven web site.

jpm short has been under water previously so no great shakes - imo very late to the party!

still waiting for this buyback the perma bulls keep mentioning, but the only such purchase was made by capital recovery despite c £50m of cash in the books at the time.

Sparky Pal

And you post up crap from Simply Wall Street!

Must have missed that holdings RNS from Schroders!

On 14th May you posted there was going to be a TU in your opinion, then today you’ve posted that there won’t be a TU, it will be a non event. Weren’t you wearing your rose tinted glasses this morning when looking into your crystal ball?

Sparky Pal

Spitting ypur dummy out again. Clearly whenever you are challenged about all the utter crap you post you can’t handle it.

Day after day on ADVFN you post the same thing and have for years……pot kettle black.

I will continue to post my views thanks :)

Who knows if there will be a TU this month.

They still haven’t done anything with their enhanced cash pile in over 14 months now. IMO a big chunk is not distributable and with WC at c £40m, plus divs etc then not much left.

UK gas price currently settled at around the average for last FY but I’d expect that to reduce further.

Anyone heard from Gacky?, £100 | share is pure fantasy IMO. The CFO defo doesn’t believe that either!.

Sparky Pal

Nothing is being “worked” IMO.

Would think you would be wanting news on an acquisition to sustain growth, all that cash still sitting there doing nothing.

Rev growth 40%, energy supplied up 78%, market share nearly doubled….. but earnings only up 11% with forecast growth rate declining significantly.

Do you still believe this will be £100 a share in the future?, complete fantasy IMO.

Sparky Pal

Thought you weren’t going to post again and that I was filtered!

As for GS can’t recall tbh so you will have to post it up.

Still haven’t answered those questions, so you believe all their growth has come purely by increasing their customer base and has nothing to do with the significant increase in energy price, wow!.

And JPM opened their short because of Trump tariffs on exported goods to the US!, unbelievable…..but the best has to be comparing YU growth with that of Apple, OMG!.

sparky pal,

they may well achieve their target market share (5%-7%) but that’s the number of businesses not meters or energy supplied (that’s my understanding looking at the fy24 year end presentation). so 3.2m sme’s and 2.7% is 86,400 businesses (88k meters).

quick back of *** packet calcs - if they double their market share the energy supplied is unlikely to have doubled too, let’s assume it does double though, but when wholesale energy fully normalises (yes it may not) it will be more than half what the average was for fy24. so unless their net profit margins are in excess of their previous norm (c 2%) then profits will be on a par with what they are now. they’ve got to sustain in excess of 2% margins to grow bottom line, or increase volume supplied at a proportionally greater rate than the decline in energy pricing. how much discounting will they need to apply in order to also gain a greater share of the highly competitive market? - yes all if buts and maybes, exactly the same for the bull case scenario but i’m more inclined to think they will struggle. and yes they have smart metering too but that contribution overall is minimal compared to their bread and butter.

let’s see, nothing is as black and white as you always make out, nobody knows the future, you don’t even believe that the business has any potential risks or headwinds (can dig that post out if you like too!). i still also feel that the issues around energy brokers could be a massive red flag in the not too distant future.

as i’ve always stated - you have zero balance and just believe they will keep growing at the rate they have which simply is not the case as the fundamentals and forecasts have demonstrated. the significant growth in income and profit is without doubt driven primarily by the significant increase in wholesale energy prices.

sparky pal

your reference to apple was not about it nearly going bust in the mid nineties, you were trying to compare their respective growths, to even think apple has any similarities with an aim listed energy supplier is complete and utter nonsense.

just answer the question : what has been the primary reason that yu has become profitable and had such growth in income?, are you truly saying it’s had nothing to do with the significant increases in wholesale energy costs?, really!.

all you see is the recent growth and think it will continue, well their own house broker doesn’t think that the 80% increase in revenue (fy22 v fy21), or net profit margins will be on a par with their peak of c7%, forecasts are reducing in terms of growth rates. why is that?, you are saying it’s nothing to do with declining energy prices. so customers numbers are increasing but income growth rate and profit margins are declining, what does that tell you?.

ps i’m not a trader either and why you keep saying that and ****ging off traders just shows how naive and blinkered you really are. do you really think jpm have thrown c £2m without thinking there’s a decent risk to reward, yes it’s picket change to them but they picked yu as the best downside reward rather than cna, tep, good, etc.

Sparky Pal

No expert in energy or politics but the numbers speak for themselves IMO.

You post up utter BS at times, always have done.

YU is definitely not in the same league as “Apple”, I can’t actually believe that you should even mention Apple in the context of YU, absolutely unbelievable.

Would appreciate it if this time rather than running away, that you clarify for everyone on those questions I’ve raised, doubt you will in light of the fact you believe there is some comparison between YU’s growth and that of Apple, jeez.

Sparky Pal

Post up what was the underlying reason for their significant increase in profits ?

Errr was it anything to do with the wholesale price of energy by any chance?

And please post up why did energy prices increase as much as they did?

If you truly believe it had nothing to do with the war in Ukraine, and you believe they will be able to repeat such growth in profits again, then you must be living in a fantasy world. Just like the £100/share predictions constantly posted here……..unbelievable IMO.