Member Info for Discodave4561

Nice info from AI, thanks.

But what do you think?

Where are the bulk of YU customers located?, how will the transition in long term contracts be impacted by the pricing structure change?, how will it impact YU’s contract pricing model and the deal with Shell?.

Lots of uncertainty and unlike yourself I don’t believe it will be all positive for energy suppliers in general, profits will need to be maintained but Mr Ofgem will definitely not want customers in higher pricing zones to compensate for reduced profits from those in lower pricing zones. Will I imagine be a logistical nightmare and could also mean that large energy use businesses re-locate if it’s cost effective to do so longer term.

I hear it’s potentially going to happen in 2027 if the policy goes through, I imagine it will be kicked down the road for a few years maybe, who knows but IMO if it happens it would not only put investors off from renewable energy projects but also from investing in energy suppliers too……uncertainty never a good thing.

Sparky Pal

You are funny…….why would I be stressed on the back of the rubbish you post up, tbh I find it quite revealing on how little you appear to know.

Still haven’t answered why earnings here have reduced significantly and why / how will this be worth £100 a share in the future when brokers are reducing earnings forecasts.

From memory Gacky assumed that bottom line growth was aligned with market share growth, which it definitely is not……market share doubled but eps growth was only 11%.

Any thoughts on the proposed zonal energy pricing policy,?

Let’s stick to the subject matter eh chap, rather than your constant derogatory references to me (which I will always challenge as well you know).

Sparky Pal

‘not much volume to any buying pressure and up she goes like a steam train’

Unbelievable, you seriously think they will close out completely, why?, how do you know, nobody knows. Plus with average daily volume c 33k, they would struggle with liquidity to close anything of size in a day…………they may well increase at some point before / after the next TU, who knows, certainly not you Sparky.

So when the go below 0.5% will you assume they have closed completely?, think the daily volume will possibly say otherwise as I previously posted, only 3,360 to buy and you won’t even notice that!.

Enjoy your day :)

Sparky Pal

You really are clueless.

JPM have only to close c 3,360 shares to keep under the radar. At least that would shut up all your nonsense. JPM could have opened their position at £19, you haven’t a clue.

I guess you will be spouting your usual pre TU garbage that they will blow the doors off, blah blah blah, and every time it’s a sell on news.

Will reminder you of your prediction that JPM will be closing their position all 100,000 (it’s actually 85,680), you do know don’t you that shorttracker only registers positions of 0.5% or greater……..don’t think you do.

Have a good day, don’t jump up and down too much today, think of your age.

OMG Sparky Pal

You seriously think PI volume could squeeze JPM!, unbelievable.

Hopefully they will get under the radar (close 0.02%) so you have fcuk all nonsense to keep banging on about.

Have a good day :)

Sparky

Still waiting for you to actually answer the question?, you cant can you?…..don’t want to more like.

YU have done great can’t deny that, but it’s all dependent fundamentally on energy pricing, it falls they will struggle, their business is not IMO sustainable in terms of growth. They are not a multi utility supplier, they have very limited if not zero diversification, all their eggs are in one basket.

I’m not knocking the business I’m just of the view that when energy falls back they will struggle, yes it’s not fallen as quick as I thought but I’m a very patient person. In the meantime I will trade either way but that’s not my primary play here.

Enjoy your fantasy in Dubai and have a nice zzzz

Sparky

“YU is the cream of the crop yes one day it will grind to a snails pace but a long time yet”

I’ve posted up the decline in eps growth, looks to be heading to a snails pace quicker than you say. It’s there in black and white, so please explain to everyone why earnings growth has reduced so much?, let me think, could it have something to do with the fall in energy prices?, mmmm they couldn’t make a profit, then the energy crisis and boom, it’s a mystery isn’t it lol.

Go on, try explaining :)

wow sparky,

all i asked is for you to explain why eps growth has significantly reduced and how come the growth in market share and energy supplied only resulted in 11% eps growth, but you can’t answer and you accuse me of not understanding the market!, pmsl.

when challenged you do what you have always done, resort to childish insults and rants, just do the opposite for once and provide an intelligent response to my questions. i dare you!.

the ceo can’t sell in volume without doing a discounted secondary placing, how many times do i have to explain that to you. plus it’s on record i’ve stated that would actually be a positive for liquidity and the sp, despite it would initially hit the share price depending on the discount.

the cfo and md retail timed their massive sells pretty well, when a cfo sells over half then that has to be seen as a red flag imo (particularly given his forecasting **** up for fy19 when he had just taken the position).

Jeez Sparky, how much per ramp does Bobby boy pay you?

Eps growth:

FY23 (energy crisis feed through) +547%

FY24 (starting to “normalise” in their own words!) +13.6%

FY25 forecast only +10%

FY26 forecast growth reducing to +6%

Why is that Sparky?……it’s not rocket science.

FY24 market share nearly doubled, energy supplied up 78% but eps only up 11%, go figure.

Sparky Pal

You need to post up evidence of what you accuse me of saying, never said folks saying sell are buying, never said YU is crap.

Growth is slowing that’s in black and white, as for it being as safe as houses, nothing is that safe not even YU.

And we get the comparison again with TEP, personally I view TEP as a completely different business model in so many ways that you can’t compare with YU on ratings.

Thought you were holidaying in Dubai yet post every minute still…….enjoy!

And we have the dump.

Little pip boy is so full of bull, shouldnt believe a word this boy posts.

I first started trading YU around Sept/Oct 2023, around £10 if I recall I went long to catch the positive momentum. From memory Michael Taylor (tradermichael) followed some months later based on its relative strength.

Here’s my very first post in the ADVFN thread, despite being long I was looking and still am for the reversal and was brassed off with all the ramping false info.

disc0dave465 Oct '23 - 10:52 - 3187 of 9690 Edit

0 3 0

Anybody got Liberum update / forecasts they can post up please.

Their EBITDA forecast (?33m) is meaningless IMO given their hedging gain/loss is not included and is material to bottom line profit and eps. Not doubting the quality here but difficult to value on EBITDA.

JL thanks, so it was Robbie pumping it, so no doubt folks will follow his lead and top slice / sell into the rise.

Just noise that happens based on nothing solid.

Note he never posts up the trade until after his blog, so he can pump it and then show how brilliant he is……fair play if folks are stupid enough to aid his profits.

Folks, don’t believe the boys bull.

He posted on ADVFN that he bought 125 shares, yes folks 125 shares, declaring it was posted up as a sell trade. Well I checked the trades for that day and there was no 125 share buy or sell, it’s all complete fantasy. DYOR historic trades are available.

daveboy19 - 03 Apr 2025 - 10:12:13 - 9379 of 9687 Possibly the share of 2023 - YU.

Yes, and showing as a sell. Tut, tut, MM's.

daveboy19 - 03 Apr 2025 - 09:43:11 - 9377 of 9687 Possibly the share of 2023 - YU.

Another 125 pouched :)

Nice rise indeed, on the back of being pumped / tipped, at Mello IMO. Someone wants out?.

Chaps it’s still down 5% over 52w, so shouldn’t get too excited.

Sparky pal, thought you were in Dubai yet you are back to form posting every minute up to the early hours!, really!!!!. As for JPM, we will see won’t we but there’s a long way to go :)

As for the metrics here they don’t all shout value (price to sales for one) and the ROCE, FCF, etc are decent now thanks to Mr Putin!.

Gas price now 8% below FY24 average price and the usual summer low yet to come.

Sparky Pal

Thought I was filtered!

Do you really think that your childish comments will stop me posting here and elsewhere, no chance fella. I’m here for the long term now, waiting for this to “normalise” lol.

Why don’t you inform everyone on how this is going to hit your £100 / share……..those that ramped such a forecast are nowhere to be seen.

Market share rate of growth and bottom line earnings are not nor would they have ever been aligned.

Have a good weekend chap :)

Gas down to 82p which is below FY24 average.

Little volume here and next support 1523, could then try to fill that gap just over 14.

A long wait for the next TU in July (they can’t even confirm the day).

Of course they could announce some strategic opportunity / acquisition at any time……….yawn

Sparky Pal

I’ve never said all their cash is tied up with the liquidity covenant, you do post up lots of false statements.

Not saying they are lying either, just not delivering on what they say, just like Bobby 2 years ago said that he would improve comms , pmsl

Thought I was filtered, clearly not :0)

Sparky Pal

Had a good sleep?

- strategic growth opportunities, nothing so far!

- cash balance provides new opportunities, exactly the same as the above, nothing yet. You clearly don’t understand what a liquidity covenant means. We’ve been here before haven’t we. So will repeat, they’ve got to retain a certain amount of cash on the balance sheet to meet their L liquidity covenant with Shell. Yes I don’t know what that level of liquidity is but given Smartest Energy required c £50m cash up front to provide their energy requirements and now said requirement has increased by 78% then it’s not too ridiculous to say it could be £50m minimum. Then they have working capital requirements say £40m, plus dividends to pay etc etc.

So if £80m is free to distribute / invest in shares or another business, why haven’t they done anything with for the last 15 months or so?, why did they feel the need for capital recovery to pay the dividends and a small buyback?, why did they take out a loan for £5m to fund the smart meter growth?.

They can give it the spin, wjat do you expect them to say, but actions speak louder than words and they’ve done sweet FA with their £80m.

Sparky Pal

Talking about the start to FTLY25, yes sounded positive in terms of revenue and cash, but analysts are forecasting reduced growth in earnings this FY and YU stated quite clearly:

“Energy prices expected to act as a headwind to sales growth in FY25, with a c.9% year-on-year price reduction already embedded in the contract book. Based on current tariffs, this is expected to be fully worked through the book by FY26.”

Enjoy your snooze :)