Member Info for Dibs61

Its like the brakes were suddenly released. This has without doubt been 'held' in a tight range while someone has been accumulating. We see manipulation all over the financial markets these days. No such thing as 'Price discovery' but hopefully we will begin to realise the true value from this transformational treatment drug.

Lets be honest Parsortix has a USP, a clearly superior competitive advantage over Grail and all the rest of the liquid biopsy players. So our buyout should be over and above their respective valuations. I'm sure AN is not going to give this away cheaply after years of graft and hard work!

I don't know what the buyout valuation is but its more than Grails valuation for sure!

OK let’s assume the bulls are correct and the ‘contract’ *coughs* to PROVIDE CAPACITY - as it explicitly states in yesterday’s RNS ie.NOT an ORDER actually turns into an ORDER. (Capital letters are used to spell things out clearly to those who don’t understand yesterday’s RNS.

The interesting comment from the RNS was :

‘That will happen once the government has access to a suitable test which it can then licence Omega to make.’

So the government doesn’t actually HAVE a suitable test for Omega to make at the moment! Yet we are then told they will be raking it in by end April. Folks there is absolutely no certainty or timeline placed on that statement. None whatsoever.

I say it as it is not how you think it is or would like it to be. And the price has fallen over 16% since that initial spike yesterday because the market has grasped this fact.

This valuation will only be justified once they actually get substantial orders for this test the government hasn’t got yet. Unless of course the government changes its mind again and decides to do something different...

Fairly relentless buying here. My £1 forecast by end of March is looking much too cautious!

CB can’t win can he! First People complain there are too many RNS’s and then complain there aren’t enough...

Just relax. If you get too anxious or emotional you shouldn’t be doing this kind of thing.

Last RNS made it clear:
‘The Company will revert to reporting on the drilling on these follow-up holes on a more periodic basis as significant developments arise.’

I think the key word being ‘significant’

CB will advise the market when we need to know anything. Sit back and relax, the Gold-Copper Porphyry we have ‘ain’t going nowhere... ;)

The much vaunted ABC antibody test, according to today’s announcement has been quietly sidelined re quote:
‘ Omega expects that this capacity will be sufficient to meet the expected demand for lateral flow COVID-19 antigen tests, with enough remaining capacity to be used for VISITECT® CD4 or COVID-19 antibody tests according to demand.’

So hang on, just a few short weeks ago, WEEKS, Days even the companies future was largely pinned on the expected mass sales of the ABC Antibody Rapid Test with huge contracts from the DHSC. Now, suddenly, it’s a by the by, an OK if we’ve got any capacity left we’ll make those as well!
You couldn’t make this stuff up! You can’t just one minute say this is our strategy, making millions of Rapid Antibody Tests and then FLIP it’s all about making millions of LFT Antigen tests!
With not a WORD of explanation of WHY the strategy has been turned on its head.
Doesn’t anybody possess the ability to ask these questions on this board? I think the answer is no because it’s now infested with get rich quick JCL types who actually know next to nothing about this company but have just bought on the hyperbole. There are a few sensible posters left, have a think about it. I’m not saying the company won’t eventually do well and make some sales. Surely they’re actually get some ORDERS sooner or later. All the talk about adding to CAPACITY adds sweet FA to the bottom line as today’s poor trading update illustrates.

Frog - thanks for the link. I watched it and was interesting. Perhaps we should try and find a Cadia link now as I think that is nearer our level.... ;)

RegulatorUK (amusing choice of user name btw lol) so quote : 'And Colin, being Colin, will be underplaying this...

He always underpromises and overdelivers, unlike some other CEOs."

I practically spat my coffee out when I read that comment. OK lets go back to the interims last Oct and this is what 'underpromising overdelivering' Colin said:

'The Board remains confident in the Company's prospects and has made substantial progress over recent months in positioning the business for a significantly improved performance in the second half of the financial year.'

He was talking about last October to end March 2021. So was there a 'significantly improved performance in the second half of the financial year.'

Lets see what todays announcement says:

'Revenue from COVID-19 activities is expected to be approximately £1.5 million which includes sales from the UK-RTC antibody test, sales of the Mologic ELISA antibody test and development income for work undertaken on behalf of a third party.'

So, £1.5m hardly transformational.. OK so what about group revenues ...

'In summary, Group revenue is expected to be approximately £9.3 million with an EBITDA loss in the region of £2.1 million to £2.3 million. Despite the considerable investment in the scaling-up of our production capacity, the year-end cash position is expected to be in the region of £5.5 million to £6.0 million (2020: £0.6 million overdraft).'

OK so this is NOT a 'significantly improved performance' by any measure. Revenues flat, down even, from the previous year.
EBITDA loss again. Still burning cash to the tune of £1.5m to £2m since 30th Sept when cash was £6.95m!!

No RegulatorUK there is your proof Colin does NOT underpromise and overdeliver. He constantly does the OPPOSITE.

But I will give him one thing. Todays RNS was one of the cutest craftiest RNS I have ever seen. Headlining the Contract which ISN'T a contract at the top and burying what was a VERY poor trading update underneath and sugar coating it to the n'th degree. Classic polishing of a turd.

And the market has bought it so well done! But you be careful with that valuation theres a hell of a lot priced in there already. Way beyond ANYTHING they have actually delivered thus far which is bugger all.

Yes Phil indeed.....

I suggest you utilise the 'Find' facility on your screen and see if it manages to find the word ORDER on the RNS.

This is an ongoing 'jam tomorrow' story.

Phil - I can clearly read an RNS far better than you. It simply says they (ODX) have AGREED to provide a manufacturing capacity of up to 2m tests. That means nothing. It’s ‘capacity’. You show me where the DHSC have actually agreed to buy anything or any kind of an order. I have never heard of a ‘contract’ where the supplier agrees to provide capacity but the buyer doesn’t actually commit to buy anything. This is simply clever semantics by Mr King to draw a veil over awful financial results this year. Shall I post what ODX said about their projected sales for this failed year? He’s been very clever I’ll give him that but until the ORDERS actually appear to BUY things this is a bubble which has been getting bigger and bigger and there will come a point where if they do not deliver these orders which have been coming for months haven’t they? I see the antibody test is being quietly filed away in the drawer now and it’s suddenly all about antigen tests. You can only keep these plates spinning for so long.

Or both. Take your pick.

ODX have been going on about ‘demand’ for their tests for months and months now. What about the fabled abc antibody test. Still NO orders. After all the hot air about this test what did it achieve on sales? £1.5m.

£184m MC with at best flat sales is a bubble waiting to burst. They have been constantly harping on about capacity but there are NO orders. Capacity means NOTHING without orders.

No they don’t Robbo that is simply UNTRUE. READ the RNS.

On a masterly fiendishly clever RNS where you announce a contract which isn’t a contract. It’s simply a reiteration of a previous commitment that ODX made to increase manufacturing capacity to 2m tests by end of April. There is still NO actual order! AND as if that sleight of hand wasn’t enough he cleverly headlined the so called contract - which isn’t actually a contract - whilst burying the miserably poor financial results for the year. Revenues DOWN. EBITDA LOSS UP.

But no matter, the madness continues and the bubble gets bigger. When it pops boy it will pop.

The usual sell on any news good or bad crowd are having their fun just now. But once that’s done this should Rerate further to £5+

Well if that’s true the Brits are mugs aren’t they, present company excepted.... ;)

Looks like the order filing continues apace. £1 coming soon...

You’ll have fun finding out Steve. But here’s a snippet of what I uncovered.

transgressive phreatomagmatic breccia are the GIANTS of the World of Porphyrys. Quote from my source link:

“Phreatomagmatic breccias could be considered giants in the breccia community.”

Phreatomagmatic breccias tend to form as an inverted cone shape. Largest width at the top with the walls dipping more sharply to become almost vertical deeper down in the deposit.

THIS IMO is why they now want to drill HIGHEF up in the system because they have established the broad shape of the system ie. Phreatomagmatic breccias are inverted cone shaped and they want to establish the width nearer the surface which should be wider.

Read the article, it’s heavy going, but the information is all there. Oh one other thing, apparently the central ore body in Phreatomagmatic breccias tend to be HIGH GRADE. There’ll be no shortage of sufficient grade mineralisation from what I can establish...

Source link:
https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1166&context=geologia

And the MM’s can sod about with this all they like dropping the bid, opening the spread it makes no difference. It will take time of course to conclusively prove up but the market will know for sure within the next four/five weeks that this is a GIANT discovery. And we won’t be faffing around at 5 or 6p then.

Honestly the SP movements not bothering me one iota. As Willem Middlekoop says you buy the discovery and you HOLD. It is a mugs game now to sell this share. I am more confident than ever that this is a huge discovery. Bigger than Boda. It will prove to be Comparable to Cadia.