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Completely in the same boat as you. I want to believe that this company will do well in the future but historic results says otherwise.
I feel as an investor, the thing you're banking on is that "one day" vanadium will replace lithium and when that happens the price of vanadium will shoot up and stabilise but that could be next year, 5 years or 10 years from now.
A very long term play for people but I think you will be handsomely rewarded.
Thank you for this post.
Purely hypothetical.
IF the results from the study are negative and AVCT decided to abandon ship (I know the chances of this are looking less and less likely by the day but there is still this chance however remote).
Is this the type of company where the SP will then tank by 50%?
Just trying to work out the risk v reward or in this case whether its "double or nothing".
Drop this morning is painful to watch - as others have mentioned here, results were average with nothing exciting the market. No major negatives highlighted either.
I'm heavily invested in this stock and now on quite a sizeable loss.
Taking a step back and ignoring the noise currently, I ask myself these questions.
1. The SP is back down to March 2019 levels - is this right? 3 years forward, is Ocado worth the same as it did back in 2019 before Covid even existed? I do not believe so.
2. With the Re:imagined presentation a couple weeks back - will things get better? I think it will, this was a game changing announcement for taking on new customers - lower costs, faster and more efficient. It's a no brainer for potential customers who were sitting on the fence previously.
The game now for Ocado is to smash those retail numbers for the Q1 update, woo new customers in with this new technology and maybe chuck in a few management share purchases to give some confidence.
I will continue to hold because in time I believe the SP will rise up.
Competition is a real threat for tech companies such as Ocado.
I'm not sure where competitors are in terms of creating tech like Ocado or if they are even interested in this sector but what did assure me was what the CEO of Kroger said:
"Even if we can do as well as Ocado, it would still take us 5 to 10 years to get to where they are today and that was 3 years ago".
An eye opening statement.
Not going to lie, I was fairly nervous before this presentation started given what has happened to the SP lately but Ocado did a great job presenting.
To conclude, we can do what we do now but faster, cheaper, greener and for more products.
Ocado have already mentioned the financial impact of this won't fully be seen until 2023 where CFC's will be built using this new technology.
With this new tech, I think new contracts will come in swiftly as the cost reduction and increased productivity will definitely attract new customers / existing customers sizing up.
If this is the case, the SP will only be going upwards from here.
GLA
I guess the question you need to ask yourself is - why did the SP drop nearly 14% in the last month even on positive news?
1. Autostore results
2. Given insight into Christmas trade being record breaking
3. New game changing product launch
If the conclusion you come to is that Ocado is well overpriced and it's now reverting back to it's fair value or external factors such as the interest hikes in 2022 will seriously impact Ocado then sell as further drops are likely.
If you conclude that something isn't quite right - someone or something is pushing the SP down (for example as referenced earlier on this week that Ocado is a seriously shorted share) and through your own research you believe the SP should be higher then either hold or top up.
I topped up two days ago believing it was a bargain and I will continue to hold.
Not going to lie, this is difficult to watch but limit yourself on checking the SP daily and you will feel much better.
GLA
Ouch - today's drop in SP hurt but posted in an article earlier this week, Ocado is a seriously shorted share.
At this price, the upside is higher than the risk with current SP basically back down to pre-pandemic levels, new game changing technology revealed in 2 weeks and the year end financials next month.
When the company promises the "best ever Christmas" I think it's going to be a good one!
Topped up a massive chunk today at a steal - holding long term because with a bit of patience I don't see why this share can't double in SP.
GLA
Agreed - I personally don't think Covid can push the price back up even close to the £28 mark we saw in Sep 20 and Jan 21.
To get back to that SP and beyond, Ocado will need to earn it themselves - good financials, new contracts, expansions, technological breakthroughs, keep ahead of competitors etc.
It's a hurdle but that's what being a technological growth company is all about.
My personal view is that Japan is at the global forefront of technology.
The fact that they have chosen to use Ocado's platform speaks volumes in terms of the confidence Aeon has in Ocado and the difficulty in creating something similar.
Ocado is probably a few years ahead of competitors in a similar field, they have experienced what works and what doesn't. If they keep this up they will very profitable.
Right now the company is making annual loses but they are sowing seeds globally, when these seeds sprout, it will be unstoppable but until then this share will stay very volatile.
https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4040493/world-ocado-teams-climeworks-fund-removal-tonnes-co2-atmosphere
Nice bit of ESG.
"First supermarket in the world to have a net zero office"
There are a number of events lined up in the next 2 - 3 months where investors could make a good return and of course vice versa.
1. Autostore case - December
2. Christmas trading update - January
3. Ocado year end presentation / accounts - February
Behind the scenes we also have a few things that can impact SP.
1. Any changes to Covid restrictions / Covid breakthroughs - another lockdown? Covid anti-viral pill?
2. New contracts / customers gained / new buildings built and of course vice versa, losing contracts, warehouse fires etc.
3. BOD buying / selling shares.
4. What our competitors are doing - e.g. Tesco's connection with Gorillas etc.
Hope the SP continues to rise like this morning! DYOR and good luck all.
In case people were unaware. Ocado launched it's own brand cleaning products recently.
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/1494917/ocado-own-brand-household-cleaning-shop-eact
Could also be another factor behind the SP rise yesterday and today.
Cheers everyone to another 3% gain tomorrow!
Wouldn't that be declared in an RNS?
An RNS showing a massive £1m+ buy from directors etc will greatly improve SP confidence.
This problem will get tackled in a heartbeat.
A dry ice shortage caused by a spike in gas prices leading to food distribution shortages around the UK will cause havoc.
Companies and government will step in to find a solution before it brings the UK to a standstill.
This problem isn't Ocado specific it's any grocery store selling and delivering frozen products.
The current share price took another hit but once this issue gets sorted the SP will increase again i.e. the price won't stay this low for long.
I think there is going to be a turnaround by next week.
If shareholders are in for the long term who cares if it hits £15 before rocketing to £30?
I welcome it, would never say no to a bargain.
Not the news shareholders were hoping for but at least this is over and done with.
SP took a hit down to £17.50ish at one point but quickly picked itself back up to £18.30ish.
The SP will probably continue to fall for the rest of this week before stabilising at around the £18 mark.
I think it's a good time to top up if anyone has any intention in doing so.
CEO in the statement today gave some good insight into what to expect soon - a "bumper" Christmas followed by good growth in 2022.
Good luck all.
Valueplay - hope the SP gets the uplift you mentioned, we all need it!
The factors holding Ocado back that I can think of are:
1. The lawsuit - could be a long time before we get a definitive answer but news either way will cause the SP to rocket or free fall.
2. The actual impact on Ocado post lockdown (this will be the first full quarter of trade since removing the restrictions). Back in August there were already articles out stating Ocado had it's first sales dip due to the restrictions being removed.
If Ocado are able to maintain or grow sales during Q3 compared to Q1 and Q2 this will push the SP up. If Q3 news is not good then the SP could continue to fall.
3. Nationwide driver shortages hitting the supply chain - Morrisons have already said this morning that this will lead to higher prices for customers. Linked to point 2 above, be interesting to see how much impact this will have on Ocado but just based on this, it will be an uphill struggle for the SP.
4. Not sure how legit this claim is but last month there was the article about a driver being underpaid and then yesterday there was an article saying a group of Ocado drivers represented by the IWGB launched #shameonocado campaign. Not necessarily business changing but negative press nonetheless.
The share price has fallen by over 8% in the last week, the four points above may have or may not have been factored into the SP.
I plan to stay invested in Ocado over the long term as I believe in it's business model and believe it can continue to grow but it's also important as an investor to understand what issues it's currently facing.
Fingers and toes crossed for 14th September!