We've had many posters on here talking about Art and his cronies lining their pockets off the back of shareholder value, well, if a leopard doesn't change their spots then awarding share options to his team is a huge buy signal in any book - the only way they line their pockets here is to get the share price up - fill your boots! You can't have it both ways
Great post Stas. The discovery being in the US is huge - their reserves have been going down for years, this an absolute golden nugget of a find - I expect many interested parties once confirmed and we know what that means....
Agree Sageman, understand peeps trading prior to Arts buy but now, there seems to be little movement up and down. The price is consolidating and growing strength day by day, it will go pop soon but to trade 34-37 seems, you're gaining a penny once you take the spread into consideration, each to their own.
It's do'able Tiburn but it definitely needs some fiscal backing, I'm sure with a confirmed discovery it makes life easier to get the proper financing. Your figures for revenue are prudent, as your bopd increase the hedge becomes less and less relevant. With WTI nearing $100 and bopd hopefully increasing significantly, the bottom line should see an increase on your $70 estimate. Its tight and you need a safety net with any business. A JV partner is the way forward for all, ringfence the current production and make it profitable and accelerate the ops with the find and get your share price up - take advantage of the oil prices in this window.
I don’t buy into the “market doesn’t trust” Art narrative - we constantly see companies with dodgy CEO’s SP’s rise and fall often on P&D’s. I don’t trust any CEO, but many are in the back pocket of the great and the good in Canary Wharf. Art is his own man, old school and was never one for shareholder value - he was too busy chasing his oil dream. Now he’s on the cusp though and suddenly his narrative has changed, he’s suddenly loading up in options and shares - his route to wealth. I don’t trust the people running the market, what I do trust is market economics - if you have 1.6 B bbls of oil at 20% recovery the market will find the value. The market may want the heads up next time though, maybe that’s part of the issue, we need good comms, no doubt but I’m always wary of companies with “excellent comms” I always go for substance over style.
Thanks for this. Interesting to read, and learn. I didn’t realise there is a 10% cap on options which is good, I’m all for incentives but we all know how greedy individuals can be when dealing with someone else’s money and a potential life changing fund.. I think Art is positioning himself for a big announcement, if anything his character is one of arrogance - “I don’t give a damn about what other people think”. He’s loaded up with options and increased his shareholding significantly. In fact, he wanted to add more - which for my sins, I believe. If looks like a duck, moves like a duck and sounds like a duck, it’s a duck. Have a good weekend all.
Until we actually know the scale of what we have, confirmed by an independent report it is all conjecture. Wait until we see before speculating value - if it is what Art and his team think it is, £3 is selling yourself way short - fact. A lot still to happen but we're in a good place - majors will be circulating if the find is substantial - £600M? Do me a favour....
This is positive - the whole BOD aligned with shareholders. Art obviously believes they’re on the cusp of something big and rightfully is rewarding his staff - as much as some might not agree with it, if it weren’t for the diligence and skills of the BOD we wouldn’t be sitting on a gold mine. He’s aligning all his ducks ready for lift off, I think that Art thinks this is going to increase by many many multiples and when that happens I don’t think you’ll bother about a 6% bonus from shareholders to staff. GLA
Stas......pretty much the same. I tend to buy on fundamentals rather than charts so I don't always get it right but got my average down. Feel as though as a LTH for over a year (I'm relatively short compared to some others here) we haven't got our just reward from the risk we've taken but it does feel close (famous last words).
Lets be clear Duc. Its easy to buy on the way up, not so easy to buy on the way down but many of us here did buy in the teens against a board of negativity and an SP which was losing 5% a day . We had conviction, we were well researched and stuck to our guns. The vast majority were doing it to average down, as we were also buying in the 30's, 40's and 50's. At that time there was no discovery but there were a few hints of something decent but never to this scale. So anyone buying now, has the luxury of buying in a rising stock with little or no risk. At current SP it is a gift!! Make hay while you can because you may well be saying the same line when we're substantially higher. Opportunities like this don't come along very often. GLA