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It’s nice to see everyone in better spirits today, after wine on Friday and Saturday I’m now over the shock and hoping onwards and upwards, even if it takes a little longer.
I remember Shaunp suggesting we were selling the tests at a massively discounted rate to the DHSC. This should at least increase the profit margins as most have suggested. Also 9 new jobs in the last 24 hours.
Just for some balanced views I am against stop losses. They lost my friends a lot of money in GGP a few years ago, if the market has lots of volume your sell may go through a lot lower than the stop loss. This can cause a big loss, better to sell yourself if you intend to.
Mike, exactly, I’ve taken console in wine the last 2 nights. We all make our own decisions, we all believed in the company (I still do to some extent), the research posted by the likes of ggg and others who may have sold was based on fact (not the SP predictions). However I bet everyone of us would have tried to sell prior to the flash crash that happened, ultimately knowing they could increase their holding.
COVID hasn’t gone, the government has *****d up with LFT, the ONS states the R is increasing yet the positives are falling. Give it time I think this will recover, call me naive or emotionally attached, I still stand by the research done and know it’s a joke at these prices.
As I posted in the telegram group:
I think if any of us had of seen the news and actually got a decent quote we’d have sold out as we knew the drop was coming. Difference is a lot of us would have bought back in at the bottom to increase our holding.
Each to their own, he’s sat on the sidelines and may get back in. Cant question anyone’s motive, no one saw that RNS coming.
Wilson, luckily all he can do is say dadda :) he’s none the wiser, his mum wasn’t impressed with me and called me an idiot / it’s as bad as gambling lol. By the time he is Dylan’s age hopefully it’ll be a MIDCAP and GM will prove to be a man of his word.
Docker, I can’t imagine it’s that petty if I’m honest, you don’t get black listed. Look at Randox and all the issues they had. DHSC still bought stuff off them and Innova (even though it’s accuracy isn’t as expected).
That said I was under the impression that tender was withdrawn and there were new ones, a £4bn one and an £8bn one.
Chorelypete, I tried to sell on HL at 1231 as I knew I’d massively increase my holding and get in lower. After 15 minutes of pressing requote i got offered £4.70 which I didn’t take. Similar happened on the vaccine news.
Oriens that’s the bit I don’t understand. He could have said we still expect to bring in a minimum of £120m for the year.
Instead he said revenues will be lower than the markets predict without giving any guidance yet again, a suicide mission.
I am hoping GM has got the negative news off his chest and there is positive news in the pipeline in the build up to the FY results, if that were the case then why would he have blatantly screwed the SP.
As I’ve said it either points to nativity and stupidity or deliberate manipulation.
Sainsmith, from the telegram group along your lines:
Here’s a thought .. to chuck in the mix .
Everything was rosey in the garden first thing this morning with potential confirmation of Travel PCR requirement, it was on BBC radio news that Gov “in discussions to negotiate a lower cost with suppliers “ .. did something go wrong this morning ? Eg we aren’t lowering our costs till you pay us what you owe us in Q4 2020 for our kit.
Was GM hand forced a bit to announce the ‘dispute’ before the intended government daily briefing ? What were they going to announce? Where they going to backtrack on PCR.
But it all went to ****e with DOE dying and no government briefing today which left the carnage to unfold. If he had waited another hour and got the DOE news maybe RNS could have been postponed till the next scheduled briefing and who know the ‘dispute’ could have been sorted out ??
We know why the legal bid was taken on now.
Just a thought .
Porky, surely it’s in his interest for a takeover to be as high as possible?
Also I thought it related to the 52 week high not 3 month high?
Not saying this will happen as I will be called a ramper :)
This is what killed us:
Given the ever-changing nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and diagnostic testing demands, the Company continues to have limited visibility over future sales. Whilst the Directors are confident new contract wins will continue as Novacyt expands international sales and into private sector testing, they believe revenue and profit for 2021 may be lower than current market expectations due to the absence of the DHSC contract.
Someone on here (can’t remember who) has an email from GM after the trading update with him admitting that the wording wasn’t great.
I find it strange yet again he gave a very wishy washy forward statement saying they can’t predict the future....? Anyone else think it’s as if they’re deliberately trying to shoot themselves in the foot? They surely should have learnt from Jan, it wouldn’t have taken much to give a baseline £35mil x 4 = £140mil....?
All what a crap day, I already have a beer open and am now sat on circa £15k loss, closer to £80k profit loss due to averaging up multiple times.
Positives:
1.) seems they have listened to demand for quarterly trading updates.
2.) numis broker targets circa £13 didn’t include the DHSC extension.
3.) the pandemic is far from over, look at India, Europe etc.
4.) pretty certain this is now a bargain for a TO and is very likely.
5.) We are no longer tied to NDAs so will RNS contract wins to build sentiment.
6.) Chris in the telegram group said he’s handled many contracts with the DHSC. They expect it may be down to payment for the issues that happened last year when they were sat around doing nothing. Either way the relationship isn’t necessarily broken.
We all need to decide whether we stay long or leave, I can’t average down but I am staying long. Onwards and upwards. Only 200% to previous highs :)