Member Info for Dartron

Still here, id say its getting exciting. I missed the IC article, it didn't make it to the paper version.

I think a big factor here will be an outcome over at APH.I think LDG have 21% now of APH. APH is still in the grips of 2 short sellers, GLG and Blackrock.. I expect they are waiting for the announcement regarding the appeal over the court case. The only thing at stake now is whether APH have successfully appealed the 7.1M fine (I think unlikely) and whether Peter Butterfield gets struck off, over the incident. The latter doesn't really matter to me, APH have already restructured management. I think APH will be the jewel in the crown once all this is put to bed. Maybe DBay can find a buyer for it, or reverse this in to it?

LDG is doing as well as many other closed end funds etc. I think its worth holding.

Lastly, several times I have seen those cancelled trades above 14p, something going on?

Hi LV, yes I spotted you here. Regarding that other stock we were in, I do know what I am talking about, though most people there haven't a clue. You could probably make more money here, or on a similar stock than you could over there. These types of businesses are far more predictable. Effectively, the difference between a real business here and a storey stock over there. That ridiculous talk of a 20p dividend over there, they haven't the foggiest. Conversely if you buy and hold something like this you could actually be looking at 20%+ yield in a couple of years. For example many of years Safestyle paid a dividend, the dividend was higher than the price of a single share today. Imagine that, in a two or three years being paid back your entire investment each year. Thats the dream.

Sorry to keep mentioning SFE, I wont again, just very comparable to here and I am less researched here.

Bought a few here, I personally think it is a short culminating, but only my personal feeling.

June trading update was positive, still on track to meet expectations, but quite vague, note they are hoping to meet EBITA expectations, removing the D from their headline figure.

Lombard bought 5% in March, that is a good sign. Was tipped in IC in 2022 (may be a bit out of date now).

Single analyst buy rating, with target NTM 33p, 200% upside.

Last full set of results Dec 2022:

- Net debt10 £41.5m (FY21: £45.4m) reflecting improved profitability and working capital management

- Strong free cash flow generation of £28.4m despite increased capex investment

Ownership looks pretty decent as well:

Exponent Private Equity LLP 33.43 %

Ravensworth (International) Ltd. (Gibraltar) 26.71 %

Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd. 3 5.576 %

Hestia Investments Ltd. 5.532 %

Merchant Capital Manager Ltd. 3.972 %

HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Ltd. 1.601 %

IG Markets Ltd. 0.8837 %

Clareville Capital Partners LLP 0.7092 %

BlueBay Asset Management LLP 0.6161 %

Hargreaves Lansdown Asset Management Ltd. 0.6026 %

For me, I am happy to be buying building materials and services companies. I plan to hold these as long as necessary. There is a quarterly ZEUS note for this sector, its well worth a read. It has monthly consensus EPS for each company, HSS is showing a decline of 14% for the prior year, but that is a lot better than many others. HSS heat map is one of the better (red) ones. Only a few are green, Epwin is one green which I hold (6% yield on that, just plods on an on).

I have also conducted a fair bit of research regarding Safe style, one of the biggest droppers this year on that list. While Revenue and earnings are down, they are within their covenant, and importantly for me own freehold of factory and head office, worth more than the value on the balance sheet IMO. Big drop there today also, company mcap about £10M now. Huge II ownership, some recent director buys.. Will post over there very soon, was waiting to get entire position, which I have today. Again another 2 or 3 year hold, if not taken out expect 5 bagger from todays 8p.

The building scene seems ok round my way, trades I know are busy.

Yes, thankyou sparkler23, it was the end of a long day, and I was a bit too eager to post my reply. Cheers.

OK, thanks for the clarification.

Brighty,

MTEC's share price was over 40p in February of this year - yes it was, and it should not have been. One of the last Hurrahs of over valued AIM companies being run up by traders. I cant speak for 2 years ago, but it is likely a raise/Dilution has occurred to lower the price that much?

15p a share seriously under values this company based on the numbers announced today. - No it doesn't, the market cap is now £22M for a company that lost £1.5M this year. Ok, it has no debt, and £8M cash, so we are talking about an EV of about £30M for a loss making company, with no financial moat, that mainly relies on people to generate the earnings - once they can get a contract. See very good post by gusrezo.

I have been invested here, I sold at 33p as it was clearly over valued by that point. Bought the dip recently, but fortunately needed funds and sold close to b/e at 17p. I would say this might be worth buying or holding for when the economy picks up, but I think around £20M mcap is about right currently. If you bought it for £20M and liquidated it tomorrow, you would be out of pocket. I also followed TPX impact closely, and Totally health care, both have had similar woes. This sector is an avoid for the time being to savvy investors. As the the CEO purchasing, I have said it before, he is buying back stock for a fraction of what he sold it for when this floated. It obviously is worth more to him than anyone else (as he has control).

I would also keep an eye on the share count of these 'people' business. It has increased by 10% this year. I think these companies have a trick of part paying employees with shares. This keeps wage bill low, increases earnings, impresses the market, but few people realise the effect of the dilution. Great if you can accelerate earnings above the level of dilution. It also suppresses the share price, as stock is constantly being sold. - currently scratching my head about with Begbie Traynors.

For example

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MTEC/ltip-update-and-pdmr-dealing-y3mxqj601lhoiv5.html

Following the waiver and cancellation of the CEO and COO LTIP Awards, and the grant of the above new awards under the LTIP, the Company has options outstanding over 4,688,268 Ordinary Shares, equivalent to 3.14 per cent. of the Company's current issued share capital.

I too would be interested to see how the finances could be modelled, when we have had no explanation for the 2 month delay, and also no info on the flow rate. I also don't use Discord.

Perhaps you mean, its a more general modelling once things have settled down, and they hit the first targeted flow rate etc. This is what PB is likely going to want to get across in the investor meet, though if nothing else material transpires until then, I don't know how credible it will be, or how much people will be prepared to trust him further.

Still out, still dont want in. Sorry if it bothers some that someone uninvested is discussing TXP on the TXP board, but I am genuinely interested in the storey here (having been invested since 2019). I follow many shares, that interest me.

Dowgate Wealth Limited up to 9.4%

Its an excuse for poor performance, Something deliberately orchestrated previously to buy another year of lifestyle. Im sure they will have another great idea for next year, but they just need a few quid first...

I did make money here, not much from memory, but I was so glad to get out of this. When it spiked up in the spring time. I was one of the first to sell, missing a lot of the spike. I just wanted out. Wasting your time here, more luck on a scratch card.

Just read the CFO RNS, I see he has worked with Baines previously at BBI. Before my time, cant find any charts etc. Does make me wonder under what circumstances he got the job. He already has 85,000 EKF shares, so no need to dish out any Freebies.

The FTSE all share AIM index is down 11% YTD, and down 16% on a 12 month basis.

I suspect the aim figure stated is the top 100 or something like that.

My source is google, just type in "aim index"

They are also 6 months through the FY, since last results (No TU published). So if a ban were implemented, I think SUP would benefit from most of this years revenue from disposables anyway. How quickly could they ban it?

I think they will be able to navigate this easily.

Supreme have enjoyed fantastic revenue from disposable vapes, which has allowed the business to expand, currently finishing off a manufacturing and distribution centre. Group is well positioned to sell in to Europe, and enjoys other revenue streams such as nutrition and batteries, albeit vaping is the main driver.

The Group has over 3,300 active business accounts with retail customers who manage over 10,000 branded retail outlets. Customers include B&M, Home Bargains, Poundland, The Range, Sports Direct, Londis, SPAR, Costcutter, Asda, Halfords, Iceland and HM Prison & Probation Service.

Oh well, I guess it can go lower. Another poor update, Baines is staying. Fortunately, my holding is v small here, so scope to buy more when this turns. Im sure they are running it in to the ground on purpose. Could still see an offer with HY results?

Not really followed this - have some shares via EKF. I cant determine if they are going to need to raise cash any time soon. It has been a long time since we heard from them, if I am wrong, please correct me and point me to details of why cash balance is ok. Would like some of these.

"Exited the quarter with a cash balance of $10,138,000, a bank debt principal balance of $31,000,000 and a net debt position of $28,913,000."

To me the 10M is what is left after drawing the full $7M RCF. Looks like they made a $1.5M quarter payment (as principle is 31, where as full amount would be 32.5). From the 10M, they will have made another $1.5M quarter payment. So we have 8.5M to account for. The wording here is that the amount was drawn for development, not necessarily spent. Payments could likely have been made from the $8.5M after June. The rest needs to cover operations that over ran by 2 months due to some un-explained phenomenon. Then cover CF until payment lands for initial gas flow. Next quarter payment will be also be due around now.

I agree there are other options and also that it is possible they may not need finance, but it is a close call and once again the company have not assisted with any positive news to the contrary. They may feel it is just easier to raise on the back of getting production up faster. Also a good opportunity for BOD to buy in (now it is all de-risked), I would expect them to go big at some point.

Ahh, threw me for a bit, but yes I posted on social media didnt I. Yes I wonder if they are holding off replacing management if they are negotiating a sale. I hope so, a quick hit would do me. What price would be agreeable for the II's here? 175M? (37p)?

Also bought SRC.

Trek, The RCF is already used up (from the quarterlies):

"Amended our Trinidad based loan agreement in May 2023, allowing for an additional $7 million revolving loan component that was fully drawn in June 2023".

It seems to me that the financial planning was based on CASC being online at the end of June. I wonder how the cash flow was structured around this date, regarding payment to contractors and suppliers. They have since had to make a quarterly loan repayment of $1.5M, which I think they would have hoped to be covered by fresh earnings. They may pull it off, but I expect the cash balance is partly what is dampening the share price. Add in that we have no guidance for flow rate, and we are back to trusting Mr 'No more rasies' Baay. Perhaps a raise would the best thing, to ramp this up quicker and unlock the future cash flow. Also, having thought about this since last posting, why no large buys in here from the board? Paul Baay owns less than 1%. So would he be concerned about dilution?

Does anybody know what the payment terms (duration) is for this new gas? hope its not something like 90 days.

At least they all agree. How pleasant a chat board with no arguing.

SB, I have bought a few. "It cant go any lower"!! !!

Sturm, possible over simplifying a complex finance deal? What if the lender has criteria like income to debt, or debt to assets. How do you know these levels are not already at maximum? I think the principle is getting too high for the lender to keep extending finance without consequences. Conversely I think more II's will be eyeing this now, and wanting to buy in. I think it will be far easier to go to the market, which has none of the red tape I mention. Infact, even placing flippers will be happy to buy now. Not what you want to hear, but entirely possible.

By the way, I do not wish to buy back here yet, until there is clarity on these issues. If there was a raise, yes id take some to trade, but my reason to sell was to protect capital and existing gains. Plenty of other bargain stocks in this market. Im already heavily invested elsewhere.