Member Info for Dartron

Alright Sunshine, I was following you up to this point.. "hen falling away to 409 at the close suggests that there will be no bid ". So since when has half a days price action, of about 5% meant anything? I was very tempted to slice some this afternoon, as I thought it would retrace. What the day traders who would pile in this at 8 am? How does the price action suggest there will or wont be a bid. You are talking out of your sunshine hole.

Tickhilltim, I appreciate your contribution here. Even though the RNS says that they have no intention of making a bid, my hope is that they do. What would be so bad about that? I have bought shares in a company, had some capital appreciation, and some dividends, and then get to sell my stake and find another. What is the problem?

The other side of what you say, is that this vehicle Abicad (which I dont know anything about), may just understand the value of the company - having the inside man. I think most here would agree that the share price seems undervalued. I certainly plan to buy some, though it is not top priority compared to other shares due to the low yield.

Also, have you considered that he might have stepped up to buy the stake because a fund was forced to sell? Maybe he didnt actively seek to buy this lot? The alternative would be further suppression on the open market.

Its interesting what you post, as I am also a TIG holder (formerly CNIC). Very similar situation there (to my untrained eye), is it? Max Royde is a non executive director, but runs the Kestrel Partners LLP, they are nearly up at 29%.

A few links (as its hard to follow due to the ticker change)

https://teaminternet.com/board-of-directors/

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNIC/directors-dealings-m5mbi08vkw0bfia.html

Finally, I did not understand the distinction that you made between a NED and a NE chairman, why does matter?

Asking genuine questions, hope it comes across like that.

PS, been in SRC, it has its own issues (buying earnings to meet BOD share incentives), but looks attractive currently.

Nicely done. I should probably get some more here.

Yes, I did read about it. Do you know any more details? seems it was privately owned. Feel sorry for workers, I have been in that position myself. From my understanding, this was the same company that had Duraflex, which Safestyle had to move away from (and also Eurocell). Can you add any colour to the storey out of interest? I will try and keep tabs on what happens to these businesses (bought or broken up), again please let us know if you can add any info.

I also invest in Epwin and Eurocell.

https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/hundreds-jobs-go-major-windows-27830380

https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/tewkesburys-duraflex-windows-systems-set-27129902

We have to separate here the position of the business and the value of the equity on the AIM market. Despite the business issues, this is still undervalued (again due to assets and ownership),with the possible short interest too, it has legs IMO. To some extent down at this level the trading vehicle is kind of detached from the company Safestyle, though I hope to be here long term. Look a the money people wanted to throw at CINE or AMTE as it went in to admin. Im surprised there isnt more interest here from the traders.

I was looking through the RNS again recently and the contract they got really starts in 2024. I think that would be FY2025.

I think they may get some small income from the contract post the current FY results we are waiting for, as they are making tooling. Normally you get paid for this as well (Rev for FY24). So, hopefully if they have not come asking already they might be able to make it through with out further raises. Perhaps they should think about selling Petrel, to shore up the other core business. I think that would help with re-rating.

I do not expect any sharp movements up, unless they get more contracts, or sell Petrel. I think it is the lack of visibility of funding that keeps the price down. PI's may not be interested, buy im sure a few funds might start if the threat of dilution went away. REAT is 17M mcap, and funds been buying recently.

I tried to work out TB's average price here, I guess it is over 4p. Since he holds so much, he would probably be better served with a complete sale / take over, something to consider. It could be one explanation for the lack of comms, but probably wishful thinking on my part.

I would be very happy to hold this for a few more years, if the balance sheet went in the right direction. I wont be putting in for more raises, whilst the valuation continues to fall and share holders are not kept informed.

The 6 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Alpha Financial Markets Consulting PLC have a median target of 570.00, with a high estimate of 672.00 and a low estimate of 500.00. The median estimate represents a 75.38% increase from the last price of 325.00.

Then you look at Aviva today, rumours of takeovers for £6, when it was trading at £3.80. The IC actually wrote an article on TO targets, citing this as one.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/08/21/private-equity-buyers-coming-for-niche-consultants/

Last but not least is Alpha Financial Markets Consulting (AFM), which advises asset managers, wealth managers and insurers. Its shares sank in June over concerns that the group had taken on too many consultants too quickly and that its sales cycle was getting longer.

However, the structural growth drivers still look robust as financial services firms are forced to navigate mergers, fee pressure and ESG. Meanwhile, Alpha FMC itself is debt-free and organic sales are still shooting up – particularly in its key market of North America.

Bought, once on the book at 78p for a new pf I have created today. And once on the ask at 79p in my SIPP.

Outlook for both >2 years. I see no reason why KGH cannot get back over £1, and head up to £2 in that time.

The new pf, is more geared to income, over 4 holdings, 2 REITS + L&G and KGH for income and growth. I was planning this earlier in the week, and it would have been Aviva instead of L&G, but TO news has spiked the price today.

The new pf sits alongside my extreme high risk crazy 'bottom picker', which is where I first found KGH, and where I took the 15 minute trade. Bottom picker currently down >40% (it turned out NOT to be the bottom on a few!), but I'm very excited about its prospects again over 2 years.

I thought we might see a spike down around 2pm (normally do with shorts), but I could wait as have work this afternoon.

AFM is a bargain if anybody cares..

An II just wouldn't sell like that normally.

I also thought despite the positivity here, it just looked like the chart needed one final drop, to complete the VCP on the weekly.

IMO, this is a short. I think it was Wednesday that it dropped 20% - 93p down to 80p. I was watching it, and caught the bottom at 80p with a purchase. I held it for 15 minutes and sold it back at 85p around 4:20. That rise after such a drop is typical of a short, taking back the stock it has dumped. Now they have reloaded, they are at it again for another drop.

I still have my holding, but the 15 minute trade was quite funny. Goes to show that selling it was the right idea. I have another quality company in my pf, AFM where the same is happening. Its down 20% in 2 days. I have done the same there, but not sold yet, as no bounce, but crazy valuation for what it is. May well sell some rubbish today and increase here.

I'm wondering how much stock is still short here. Euroclear has shown 4% on loan since May / June.

The stock on loan for September is 4.38% ~ 6M shares. That is actually rather a lot in terms of shorting, and likely multiple firms as no one has declared over 0.5%. Looking at the volume chart, some stock may have been returned on the 19th (Trading update day!), but I'm not convinced it has all been purchased. No way any was bought on other days in September other than the 19th - volume too low, and I know first hand they were selling to me, not buying. I wonder if there was an expectation of a placing to cover the short, which has now been ruled out. Was that the reason why the RNS made it clear there would be no placing, its basically public info how much stock is on loan. With the price too low, it made an equity raise almost impossible. You would think all existing parties would have been unhappy that amount of dilution. I think up in the teens they might have considered it, but not at 4 or 5p. The teens would have been a fair mcap for the company, had there not been short selling IMO (based on hard and soft assets). It could well go back there relatively easily, after all that is the price the multiple directors bought in at. It would be great if the CEO and CFO could make a meaningful purchase and set out their stall, now that a raise is off the cards.

Middle of next year, with inflation already lower than peak and as rates normalise, and the general election ramps up, I think we will see more spending on home DIY etc. We will actually be back to the 'cant afford to move, so improve' mantra. Safe style could do really well from this. There may even be incentives to upgrade windows re-introduced by the govt.

With EDF holding such a large stake, I think they will take this private rather than see dilution?

Yep, LWHL, thats how its done. PMI will be fine...eventually.

Well its been 2 weeks, guess its time to issue some more shares.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BEG/additional-allotment-and-new-issue-dbounqcc21qig1b.html

1% short, judging from the price action here. Had a few more, really like this company. Left a bit of room, as we have a trading update fairly soon, but the company is in good health from last financials, and well regarded. A few in the £2's would not trouble me at all.

Ok, ill take down my I3 share certificates. They are looking a bit tatty now, and frankly did not impress any visitors on the rare occasion they came, one asking for a TV license and the other asking his football back. I said, 'Wot, you dont know who Majid is..'. The TV license guy did take quite a shine to my life size Eric Nuttal cut out. I told him the bull case for oil, but never got the chance to finish about the strategic reserves, as he said he had to check out the young mother (of the football owner) - I assume he meant license, or he probably went and bought I3 shares in envy of mine.

One difference with a CFD, is that is costs to own it (finance cost). So they do not make you a long term holder in my mind.

Polus increased CFD prior to AGM.

Cup of tea with Eric now...

Probably less exciting because he rules out a take over in the RNS.

Yes, ownership by directors or non execs is a very good thing - as long as it remains a minority stake, less than 30%. If the people making decisions and spending money have bought shares like you and me, our aims are aligned. It is only bad, when these people own more than 50%, because they could then win any vote in the company. Look at IBPO delisting recently, with the owner at 70% there he can and did do what he wanted. Breedon is a quality outfit, if Abicad wants to increase his stake that is a very good thing.

Tony, in your post you have missed an important point with CFD's. CFD's can allow a short position, as you said, you can bet on the share price movement, but in either way. What I often see, when stake building or selling, the CFD is sometimes in the opposite direction of the actual share trade. This hedges the adverse movement by such large volume in the market. I do not follow PANR, so not sure (or interested) on what ever happened there, but this is sometimes an explanation for these type of fluctuations. EG, the participant could have dumped some shares and hedged this with a short CFD. The profit form the short CFD would have made up some of the drop from the sale. I see this all the time in other stocks, especially from Blackrock. For a smaller operator, (still bigger than a PI) then yes, they may sell shares and move to CFD, especially if being margin called elsewhere. Selling shares and going to CFD would in theory free up more cash. But from a single TR1 you cant work out which one of these scenarios it is. For me, I would prefer a large investor to hold direct shares, it shows more commitment. Also the CFD could actually relate to direct sales in the market, by the counter party so closing a large CFD could cause volatility.

In the case of Polus, my feeling is that they are more interested in voting rights (again offered by CFD's) rather than exposure to share price movements. I base this assumption on the behaviour of them and JPM, especially around the AGM and the special resolutions that were voted down and not approved - i.e. if there is dilution then those with voting rights will get first offer.

BEXIMCO operates one of the largest integrated textile production businesses in Asia. Its main manufacturing base is the BEXIMCO Industrial Park in Gazipur, Bangladesh. Beximco Pharma, the group's pharmaceutical producer, was the first Bangladeshi company to be listed on the London Stock Exchange.

Why did they list in London and not the Dhaka? Seem to be owned by a parent company, why list at all. I am sometimes a little sceptical of these set ups. Why exactly does it need a London listing?

Please sir, can I have some more.

I did consider posting a reply, but I know nothing about BXP. Different reasons for holding perhaps, Im waiting for a buy out here, with Dbay up to 20% over the year, and that being their M.O. No idea about BXP, is it an Indian company?