Member Info for Dartron

19516071 @ 11.5 (£2.2M)

It is just under 3% so may not trigger a RNS.

Encouraging.

Https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/healthcare/aim-ekf/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-shares/news/ekf-diagnostics-holdings-plc-lonekf-shares-could-be-44-below

Have to admire the due diligence of 5 minutes there.

This is an aluminium foundry so no direct competition and ultimately owned by Magna a big automotive parts player.

I am not sure I can see a buy out at these levels, if Dbay themselves paid £1.50 per share for their stake, and their previous offer of £1.50 for a take over was declined. Any take over would need the consent of both Dbay and the founders agreeing. I cant see either agreeing to lower, and I cant see DBay paying that sort of valuation now. I bought in today and am happy to hold in my pension until this gets concluded, but im not sure it will be soon. Any one have any thoughts on this?

I agree with you Christo. Anybody who thinks this stock has done well, is deluded. Those trapped in here for 2024 will have to take a positive view, the rest of us can try to make our fortunes elsewhere. 12 months ago they raised money at 54.4p to bring Cascadura online, so in 12 months have created no value in the share price, only a few trading opportunities. There is very low institutional ownership (~10%), so please everyone stop the talk of take overs. Most professional investors can see this for what it is. Paul Baay has zero credibility, and the company seems unsuccessful in most of its endeavours.

In terms of opportunity for 2024 among AIM stocks, this has to rank in the lowest 25%.

Dec 2023 PB quote:

"The Fundraise allows us to accelerate certain aspects of our exploration and development strategy while we focus resources on bringing Cascadura onto production."

Why would you want to take such a gamble. The company owes over £20M at 8.3%. How long will it take to repay the debt? 5 years? Meanwhile there is unlikely to be any acquisitive growth, or much organic growth. What exactly would you be investing in? Only hope here is a take over, but given this type of business has little assets, it may be easier to just poach the people. Singer is predicting 4M Ebitda for 23, and 6M for 24, but you have to factor in the debt which is makes the enterprise valuation here 35M, so EV/Ebit is rather high = 8.75. I wouldnt touch this, but valuation wise it probably needs to half again to be appealing?

You also have a lot of Institutions who will probably dump this for above reasons, so expect valuation to be further depressed. Rosenblatt must curse the day he met Nichola.

Reading through, it sounds bad.

- decision has been taken to write off £1.8m of debtors and work in progress...restatement of the 2022 accounts.

- Costs relating to employment cases under the previous leadership team have been incurred (principally in the second half) totalling £1.9m.

- In addition, a further c. £0.2m was incurred during H2 in the run-down of another ABA.

So that is £4M down the drain before we start to look at the poor results, and lack current business.

Memery Crystal, has been impacted by the lack of activity in both Commercial Real Estate and Equity Capital Markets with transactions that were forecast in Q4 2023 either being delayed

Who would have thought that property and capital markets would be slowing down!

They had Net debt of £21.0m in June, so I would expect the recent facility to be close to maxed out - I am surprised they even managed to obtain it. I honestly think this is done for. One less legal on AIM wont be missed.

Yes, buying like that is just what is needed. Without that buying I think it would have hit 103, bottom of channel.

I guess it depends how quickly they start, and how much they buy. I have a few buy backs, where they do it so gently that the price still falls. Though with everything else, I think that is now unlikely here.

Well done CMH PLC.

Ok, as someone who complained at the issue of shares, I wish to note:

1) The recent acquisition involved no new shares issued now or in the future.

2) The RNS today regarding the EBT sounds like less shares will need to be issued from now on, rather BEG will be purchasing shares.

Very happy about both of these.

"Ordinary Shares acquired by the EBT will be used to satisfy the awards of share options granted to employees..

Purchases under the EBT Purchase Plan will be limited to a monthly maximum value of £750,000 with an aggregate limit of £3 million over the term of the plan. The EBT Purchase Plan will, unless terminated by the Trustee at an earlier date, expire on 31 July 2024."

So potentially up to £3M being bought back, rather than printed. Ok, they wont get cancelled as they will get re-distributed, but this is a start. The £3M represents about 1.6% of the mcap if taken at £180. It might also mop up a few weak sellers. Very pleased to see this.

I think it is supposed to be behind a pay wall, but it can probably be circumvented. Why else would I need a subscription.

I am happy to paraphrase after reading, but very busy today. Same with the results video.

Looks like IC have issued a new article on BEG today. The title is Begbies Traynor finally benefits from the insolvency lag

Higher-margin work is now in prospect. It is still rated a buy.

I will not post the article as it is behind a pay wall for a reason (my subs went up recently!!).

Its rare for a stock to hit a broker target, and as you eluded to, many small caps have upside of 100%, but we are just not seeing valuations meet them. I think Shore capital is the house broker (judging from the 'upbeat only' sentiment). I thought the Canoccord one was more interesting that they have reduced their target. This tallies with an article that was in IC issue 41, where the consensus was that earnings would not grow for BEG or FRP until late 2024. Regarding broker targets, given my pf of 20 or so stocks, all with upside, BEG does not stand out, in fact it is very near bottom of the group, and only hanging on because logic dictates this should do well, but proof is yet to materialise. Finally, I have no agenda. Im happy to post any news I find for or against. It all helps. I am getting it off the feed in trading view which is a real hidden gem, it aggregates more news than this site does.

Final comment, I will read the equity development research and watch the presentation to better understand the prospects here. Though I think I have the jist of it already.

There is no debate as to whether insolvencies (and stress on companies) will increase. The question is, are Begbies earning enough from the situation. The results were underwhelming frankly. They keep buying these non core companies to increase earnings, which is telling in its self. Todays property auction company is a head scratcher as, many analysts are not predicting a crash in property (which is the scenario where auction services would increase). On a separate note, Auction technology plc, a company that profits from insolvency auctions is performing badly.

All these acquisitions are diluting shareholders one way or another, is this going to be a another Marlowe? - Mind you, with Marlowe at least there was a ride significantly higher before the crash.

What I would have liked to have read was that acquisitions were finished, organic earnings were booming, with PBT following, and the company was going to buy back all those shares printed in the last 12 months. Yes to be fair the interim dividend has increased, but the yield alone is not enough to hold this, sp growth seems to be lacking for reasons I have mentioned. Its a hold from me. Wont be adding unless we go sub £1. Chart looking weak IMO. Next stop £1.03.

Some broker views I found..

Begbies Traynor's strong 1H indicates momentum is continuing across the business, and in the insolvency division in particular, Shore Capital analysts Jamie Murray and Vivek Raja say in a note. U.K. corporate insolvency volumes in the 12 months ended Oct. 30 rose to more than 41% versus the comparable prepandemic period with the business recovery, financial advisory and property services consultancy keeping its market-leading position in the insolvency market, the analysts say. "As U.K. corporate distress levels rise, the outlook for Begbies is positive given its earnings bias, around 70% of income, towards countercyclical and defensive activities,"

Begbies - Canaccord Genuity cuts PT to 175p from 183p

this company took 6m in revenue, which cost £9m to generate. meanwhile the debt to gordon watt increases as he bleeds the thing dry - currently owed £1.8m, not to mention a further £1m in convertibles. almost the entire market cap is owed to gordon watt!

to put this another way, for your 8p buy in here, you can lose 6p per share in losses over a given year, plus 2/3 of that 6p you owe to gordon. he can also half your 6p when he converts the loan (or delists it). if you read the rns's the reasons for this range from boris johnson, the ukraine invasion and of co**** covid. he might be right to blame some of this on the economy, but reading many other companies reports, they seem to have managed. could it perhaps be the systematic approach to burdening the company with so much debt to him that is really the problem here. its basically un investable.

Sad to see this go. Though always thought this imminent.

TPX results were not great today, margin down.

Analysts at Canaccord Genuity lowered their target price on electric vehicle charging solutions provider Pod Point from 70.0p to 60.0p on Tuesday following the group's maiden capital markets day in November.

Canaccord Genuity said its main takeaway from Pod Point's CMD was that it has "strongly positioned" itself as a grid flex provider, touching multiple different routes for the service, beyond its EV roots.

"Services and businesses that do not support flex have been explicitly discontinued or earmarked for sale, and the potential for flex provision via new routes was highlighted - notably grid-connected batteries and international chargepoint sales," said Canaccord, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock.

The Canadian bank highlighted that equally critical was the support of major shareholder EDF, both for the strategy and via a £30.0m credit facility, which it expects to be used from mid-2025 onwards ahead of free cash flow in 2027.

With that said, Canaccord revised its forecasts to match new guidance, noting a "slight upgrade" to 2023 expectations being offset by "a much slower earnings ramp" over the next few years, largely down to continued losses in the EV chargepoint installation business.

Alongside the interim dividend of 3p we have decided to recommend a final dividend of 3p, bringing the total dividend for the year to 6p, equal to approximately 68% of adjusted EPS of 8.8p.

If approved by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting on 7 February 2024, the dividend will be paid on 16 February 2024 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 19 January 2024.

Even the 3p on its own is a 5% yield currently. If we guess that a 2p interim will be paid in 6 months then we have a yield of 8.6%. In years to come, if this got back to 13p then the yield from todays buy in price would be 22.4%. One to hold with little down side IMO.

The progress each unit has made is excellent!

CHC have a second large multiyear contract and pletny of other orders.

RDC exclusivity contract for company in the renewables sector

Petrel With expectations of double-digit revenue growth again in 2024 at operating margins that have consistently been around 16% for the last 2 years