Member Info for Dartron

Was just investigating...

Data on the IC platform shows adjusted EPS-23, which for the year just gone was 8.8p. The FY dividend was approximately 68% of adjusted EPS at 6p. The forecast Adj EPS for 24 is 6p. In that case there is hope that they can pay another 6p out in my opinion. I think they will want to, and they certainly have cash reserves, and may wish to behave more like an investment trust, where they maintain the dividend on a 'bad year'. If they kept up with the 66% of AdjEPS, we would be looking at 4p full year. Still ok IMO and a yield of 7% at todays price.

Market screener which uses EPS (non adjusted) does not paint such a rosy picture, with EPS of 0.6p next year., so in real terms the dividend is not well covered. What ever happens, historically this provides a great yield, so even if it were lowered, the pay back will be in years to come, when at todays price you could be on a 20% yield. Seems the broker target here is 87p NTM. Mainly rated as a hold / buy.

Really Qube research has reduced by 0.02%, which takes them under 0.5%, so the whole 0.5% position drops off the calculation. That said, I think buying now is a no brainer, as the shorts are closing and the price will recover. Might take a while though. Look at the buying today...

I wouldn't bother with the info on this site for shorts, they are pulling the headline numbers but not showing you the detail.

I certainly wouldn't buy any more of them just yet. I couldn't make an argument for this being in my top 10 best ideas for small cap companies. That said, with this particular company I will not sell at a loss either - there is no need. I guess I'm saying it is a hold for now. I would add if the price breaks down further - which it might.

The buy and build strategy does not seem to focus on insolvencies, which is puzzling. If anything I suspect this is positioned to do well in a booming property market now.

Barclays raises Breedon to 'overweight' (equal weight) - price target 450 (380) pence

RBC on Tuesday initiated coverage of construction materials company Breedon Group with an outperform rating and a price target of 5.75 pounds sterling.

No trades since Wednesday. I have checked this on a Level 2 data platform. It is fairly quiet on L2 order book.

This is one to wait for further developments. There cant be any stock down here, so slightest good news this will gap up. IMO.

Https://youtu.be/3_N2JucuT48?t=1098

Way more detail than you normally get from these fund manager interviews.

Agree with him, one to tuck away.

Note he is talking about comparing this to ALPH (Not AFM as was suggested in a previous thread here - different business).

Guys, I dont know that much about TB, but from my searches and looking at his other investments, I think this is a small part of his wealth. I will say that he has deployed a significant amount of cash here - and that is where my confidence comes from. I think this investment has been more difficult than he first anticipated, but the important thing is that he is still supportive. I expect he has great sway in the financial engineering (his speciality), but I doubt he is running the works etc. He is still is the largest share holder. I expect the sale and leaseback, and the building up and selling of Petrel were his plan to recover the finances. In the middle of that we are having a weak economy, higher interest rates and a bear market where you cant raise equity.

This company must have at least 30 employees, and huge out goings so that is where the money goes. Think of it as a charitable act, keeping a few folks in jobs going. Lets hope Karma rewards us for our kindness.

Ian wants his money.

I read through all the details. Here are my thoughts:

1) HY results are way too vague and do not break down the balance sheet components.

2) HY vs HY flat for the year.

3) Interest expense is painful.

4) Sale of Petrel likely forced on them, in order to renew invoice discount facility. (Read the going concern).

5) Wont the exceptional profit incur tax? which will be really unhelpful. We only left with 1.1M cash from sale already.

6) Investor relations non existent.

7) No director buying from either Kevin.

8) I wanted them to sell Petrel, instead of keep coming back to the market for money. But 'that's it now'. There is nothing left to sell.

Cavendish released a new broker note yesterday - which was totally pointless IMO. It contains only snippets from the RNS, and the FY24 earnings are now under review. I didn't expect these HY results to move the share price. I had hoped they would be more impressive than they were. It would be nice if / when Cavendish release next broker note, they could break down the liabilities better, post sale and we could see what we are left to deal with. These guys seem to be very adept at hiding debt, for example the Dilapidation liability on the sale is a liability that wouldn't be listed as a liability because it wasn't due. The HMRC liability could be more transparent. This level of reporting is really unhelpful to get an idea of progress. I can only assume (since either Kevin wont buy) that we are no where near out of the woods yet. Maybe one more raise this year? Wouldn't surprise me. We need a big order here, and I'm concerned that they are talking about investing further in both facilities, like it is needed to get a decent order.

With no PR, or in depth accounts and 30% discount placings I am feeling frustrated with the treatment investors are getting. I still think this will eventually end well, but I think that is far off for now, and those wanting a happy ending will need to continue the journey, at further expense.

Barclays analysts cut price target on comparison website to 295p from 305p; maintain 'overweight' rating. Analysts at Barclays expect Q1 rev to be strongest qtr of year at +9% and then slow down, exiting year at low single-digit growth.

I will continue to hold, it s a quality company with a 4% yield. May get an offer one day.

That looks way too organised and methodical. I think you have found a video of an I3 investor there, happy that something so simple takes 9 minutes and presumably $1000s , which normally takes a matter of Nano seconds and can be bought for around $1. "I have made something totally point less., but I like it".

SNX now up 8% this morning after being tipped in the Mail on Sunday. I Refuse to open the link but take City wires word for it. SNX is the largest holding of DSM, should bode well for tomorrows NAV declaration. All other holdings no major moves.

Also this is good news:

Shares in British comparison website Money Supermarket

MONY rose 3.5% to a nine-day high on Thursday after Amazon.com

AMZN said it was planning to shut its UK comparison site Amazon Insurance Store.

I should have said, the Kelso group is publicly traded:

https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.html?shareprice=KLSO&share=Kelso-Grp-Hldg

From the daily mail.

“There was some love shown towards The Works after Kelso Group, which invests in small and mid-cap British companies such as THG (down 2.1 per cent, or 1.42p, to 67.28p) and Angling Direct (flat at 39p), bought shares in the arts and crafts firm on Valentine's Day.

Might be worth checking them out. Maybe another video lol.

TheWorks.co.uk PLC - Birmingham, England-based retailer of books, arts and crafts, stationery, toys and games - Kelso Group Holdings PLC buys 345,000 shares in The Works at an average price of 24.03 pence, worth GBP82,904, on Wednesday. Kelso, an activist investor, now has 3.7 million shares in The Works, a 6.0% stake, up from 5.1% previously. The share purchase was made on the same day that The Works and Kelso announced that Kelso Chief Executive Officer John Goold and Chief Financial Officer Mark Kirkland had joined the board of The Works as non-independent non-executive directors.

This is good news on 2 levels. One, they should be able to help with the recovery - these are the guys who voted down the dividend payment. Two, if they are stake building, DSM may be able to off load this directly to them. The Kelso group first announced a stake in September (share price was 30p) then upped it in October (share price was 40p). So they must think there is considerable upside here. The last Kelso purchase was quite small, so I doubt there is much stock available at these prices. I guess DSM are quite a bit under water on this, but as I keep saying. Any one who buys today this does not matter. Any uplift will be NAV accretive.

I took some WRKS stock this week, though missed the 20p entry and got 25p. I reckon I can make 50% easily on this in a few months. Its just a trade, still not a fan of the shops.

I have a modest holding, 3% of pf. Been in here about a year. Was determined not to trade this, and really thought it would break £3. But ended up back under water, and now flat. I think its a quality business and not something Im going to worry about. Not sure its going to smash earnings though. A recent article in City wire from a few days ago shows that shore capital are still bullish.

Shore Capital is positive on Moneysupermarket (MONY) ahead of full-year results thanks to the comparison site’s competitive edge and ‘multiple verticals’. Analyst Roddy Davidson retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and ‘fair value’ target price of 345p on the Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated stock, which ticked 0.3% higher to 245p on Monday morning, but is down 10% this year. ‘At the heart of our positive view on Moneysupermarket is its proven ability and long-track record of saving consumers money,’ Davidson said. ‘This reflects several positive factors, including the depth of its inventory, the strength of its relationships with product providers, and the fact that it enjoys leading positions across multiple verticals.’ Davidson also noted the ‘competitive advantage’ the group receives from the strength of its Moneysupermarket and MoneySavingExpert brands. ‘We do not believe that these positive dynamics, or our expectations of attractive earnings per share growth, a useful dividend per share progression, and strong cash generation are reflected in its current stock valuation,’ he said.

We saw a low of 106 on the 18th Jan. Still looking weak but suspect it has found support.

The works - WRKS is up 20% in 2 days. Hopefully making a small contribution to NAV announcement tomorrow.

I made a video of the portfolio holdings here. No advice, just a review of which stocks are in the portfolio.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TO0gwhwfPmk&ab_channel=DartronTrading

Hopefully the tip has helped clear out any sellers. I spent an evening pouring over the results, I guess the top line numbers are impressive, but I didn't like seeing that the 2 smaller groups were loss making. Having looked at the REAT website I felt that these guys don't really have much of a moat - maybe too many offerings, however they do have some specially trained staff etc. I was also a little concerned that these guys will attempt another acquisition and there may be possible dilution. The last placing was at a 30% discount, and Iv had one of those already this year. The Vox interview tempered this acquisition concern (they say small acquisitions this year). I thought the finance director came across well in the interview. He also covered my concerns about the moat aspect of the business and the growth prospects. React are aiming at consolidating a very large fragmented market, and currently have about 2 or 3% of the market. The tougher economic conditions may even play to their advantage if smaller operators can not offer the economies of scale. I cant link to the VM interview, as it will just get starred out, but go find it..

The other bull point for me, is that all of the deferred considerations and previous acquisition costs will be paid this FY, so if they keep their word (no large acquisitions), then they should be more profitable in future years.

I bought some more today, as I already had a bad entry up at 1.65p. Its got it down to 1.5p which will have to do. Its not a large position of mine, and I may even sell if I can get out at a small profit, iv yet to be convinced of the share price growth here. Though fortunately can wait it out if need be.

As an aside, I wonder if Franchised Brands could take this and run with it..? They could take this in to Europe.

SAVE has been suspended since June 2023. On the bright side, at least this cant go down any further.

On the double Brightside, If there was a short - as I suspect there might have been, then it has gone very wrong for them!

Looking back to the placing, I think JSE is very leaky. It sold off exactly to the placing price before it was announced, so I wonder if the recent weakness of last few days was those in the know selling. Terrible stock for leaking, no pun intended.