Member Info for Dartron

Centaur Media (+32%) announced a potential approach from private equity. This was subsequently

terminated in early May and the share price returned to pre-bid levels. Flowtech (+33%) re-rated

on improving UK sentiment. Synectics (+12%) issued a reassuring AGM statement and a new UK

utilities contract. Volex (+12%) issued a strong year-end update with revenue and earnings ahead

of expectations. Crucially, we think that second-half operating margin will potentially be just over

10%, with the contribution from the latest acquisition and strong underlying performance in Medical

and Complex Industrial. Equals (+11%) reported a strong set of final results. The potential bid from

private equity continues

I would expect some momentum from the short that needs to close. Where as many stocks have shorts on them in anticipation of a GE, I think this one was short until a GE. Time to go long.

Easy to miss with all the TO forms.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRIN/full-year-results-to-31-december-2023-8xyyjcpq8eszil5.html

This also didnt help

Barclays on Wednesday downgraded specialist solar energy and energy storage fund NextEnergy Solar Fund

NESF to equal weight from overweight and lowered its price target to 0.87 pound sterling from 1.00 pound.

NESF dropped far more than most. Dividend was only 2p.

BSIF -2.67%, UKW -1.8% etc. There has been heavy selling since the 15th IMO, as I was surprised the dividend increase could not improve share price. Was watching it carefully trying to trade some. I would guess a short, but not sure why do it now.

The REITs I mention are a little more politically sensitive as they are related to health care. PHP is over 3% short, that is huge. Some speculation Labour would interfere with the arrangements PHP have.

All of these are cheap for a reason IMO. I hold, but trying not to get seduced here by 'current' yields.

TOD, can you expand. I also saw large drops in a few reits which are more bond proxies. I dont see why these should drop due to an election which we all knew was coming. I could understand oil and gas shares..

Luckily I had some YouGov (+5%), which is worth a look. Think a short is closing on that. Guess they will be busy now!

It has been selling off like there was going to be no offer. But Cinven was always a maybe.

Read the original statement again:

The Board of Alpha Financial Markets Consulting plc ("Alpha FMC" or the "Group") notes the recent press speculation and confirms that it has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Bridgepoint Advisers Limited ("Bridgepoint") regarding a possible cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Alpha FMC (the "Bridgepoint Proposal"). The Board also confirms that Cinven Limited ("Cinven") is considering a possible offer for the entire issued and to be issued ordinary share capital of Alpha FMC, although no indicative offer proposal has been received currently.

The Bridgepoint Proposal is subject to a number of pre-conditions, including the completion of due diligence.

Back in 2012:

The businessman, who has made an estimated £400m from his serial backing of fund management groups, is today launching Argentex from the Chelsea headquarters of his main vehicle, Pacific Investments. Argentex is the 28th company founded by Sir John.

Back in 2019

Founded in 2012, Argentex is majority-owned by property tycoon Sir John Beckwith’s Pacific Investments Group although its stake will be substantially reduced by a fund raise and share sale ahead of the placing.

Now 2024, buying some back. Pacific investments have a lot of PE on the books. Never know, they could take it back private. If they did, it would give his personal funds a nice boost wouldn't it!

https://www.pacificinvestments.com/what-we-do/private-equity/

Pacific maintains an active involvement in the businesses it invests in, shaping strategy, overseeing operations and business development.

I wasn't aware of the connection, but I find this strengthens the investment case here some what for me.

I think Pacific took the 5,347,732 shares and went from 15,442,694 to 20,790,426.

JB increased by a further 1,853,567 which are split across his other holdings. Seems all of these he got on the 13th, so I would assume that they are from the placing. The other holdings add back to the extra amount, and added to the pacific holding total the headline figure 22,643,993.

Interesting that we have not seen any other RNS, so no II has reduced as far as we can tell.

NESF are still trying to sell some assets, which would help with the debt.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NESF/capital-recycling-programme-m8mqcg5xxjlgxws.html

Though there seems to be no takers at the prices they want to sell at. This could change as interest rates come down a bit.

I guess it doesn't matter in the short term whether it is a buy back or a dividend increase, it all adds to share holder returns, and at least the dividend is covered. Hopefully if they sell some assets then they could do an aggressive buy back. If they are in talks, this could be why it was a dividend increase, rather than a buy back.

I think a lot of their debt is described as 'floating rate' which is off putting a little. (they are about 45% geared with debt).

...

The £70m RCF extension is now available until June 2025 and benefits from improved terms with a margin of 150bps over SONIA ("Sterling Overnight Index Average") compared with 160bps over SONIA under the earlier terms. As at 7 May 2024, the Company's total interest cost for any amount drawn under this RCF was 6.7% due to SONIA being at 5.2%.

...

The new facility is available until June 2026 and provides two additional 12-month extension options at NESF's sole discretion to bring the maturity date up to June 2028. The RCF continues to benefit from attractive terms with a margin of 120bps over SONIA ("Sterling Overnight Index Average").

...

The Company continues to prioritise its Capital Recycling Programme and expects to use the proceeds from the Programme to pay down existing borrowings under the Company's RCFs.

...

I bought more today, as the yield is good, if rates come down and then they can sell something this will all look a lot better. I think that is the case, at least my investment case.

Over at braveheart

Following this review, a decision has been made to write down the value of the Company's equity investments in Paraytec Limited ("Paraytec") (book value at 31 March 2023: £3.04m) and Kirkstall Limited ("Kirkstall") (book value at 31 March 2023: £1.67m) to zero in the FY2024 Accounts, subject to finalisation of the audit.

Its a good update, if read properly. Much happier with quarterly reporting.

This from IC mag in January: (this was not including TMG group)

The bottom line is that although LDG’s pro-forma NAV per share of 19.36p is 8 per cent below the 21p level recorded when I included the shares in my 2023 Bargain Shares Portfolio, its share price has fallen 18 per cent per cent to 12.13p even though LDG retains net cash of around £43.1mn (8.1p). It means that the four shareholdings, which have a combined value of £59.2mn (11.1p), are in the price for £21mn (4p), or almost two-thirds below their carrying valuations.

Reading the other board, it sounds like Wan (long term holder) went to the AGM. He posted a few juicy bits, April sounded like it went very well.

I had forgot / didnt know that we had a bit of TMG.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/TMG/notification-of-major-holdings/16199909

It has received an offer, looks like LDG doubled their money. (going by share price on 13th Nov). Brave bison is another good stock to own, and has large owners already - lord Ashcroft.

unsolicited conditional proposal regarding a possible offer by Brave Bison for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of MISSION. Such offer comprised an all-share offer at an exchange ratio of 11.5 Brave Bison shares for each ordinary share in MISSION (the "Possible Offer"). Based on the terms of the Possible Offer and the closing market prices of MISSION and Brave Bison shares on 29 April 2024, being the last trading day prior to receipt of the Possible Offer, the Possible Offer valued each MISSION share at approximately 29 pence

Its funny that they had to title the RNS as positive update. But I guess its a novelty here.

Sales for fermentation services in Q1 2024 are up 156% year-on-year - not very helpful without the baseline number, since they were starting from 0 last year. However I think the overall strategy is working, and I wouldn't be surprised if they beat earnings this year. Chart looking ok.

I see GLG are really determined here. They just keep on increasing their short position. I sold a few to put in to THRL, as it goes exD this week. Id be happy with a drop here to buy back. That said GLG dont always get it right.

Mean consensus OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts 9

Last Close Price 0.958 GBP

Average target price 1.022 GBP

GLG Partners LP 1.53% 10 May 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.49% 9 May 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.52% 25 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.46% 24 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.39% 23 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.40% 18 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.30% 15 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.23% 8 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.16% 5 Apr 2024

GLG Partners LP 1.09% 8 Mar 2024

They have trousered all the money as already explained. Director wage bill £394k pa.

Perhaps worth a look at Tasty eateries, for how they dealt with running out of money. Not saying it is similar, but it did catch my eye a few weeks ago, they also had debt to HMRC etc.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TAST/trading-update-restructuring-plan-and-loan-69zmqpdzw2suoit.html

The Company has entered into the Loan Agreement with Will Roseff (the ''Lender''), a UK-based high net worth investor, Chartered Accountant, and Director and shareholder of bet365. Ultimately allows him to convert the loan to shares, which would be about 26% of company from memory.

The ability for the Court to 'cram down' dissenting creditors is a key feature of the Restructuring Plan, however, as set out above, it requires any dissenting class(es) to be no worse off than in the Relevant Alternative and the Court to be satisfied that the Restructuring Plan is fair.

Why not FAB books lend Chamberlin money, and convert in to 50% ownership or the like?

Either way, I think its clear that TB is not on your side here, and ultimately has the tools and connections to beat you and take your money. Uninvestable, and to be fair it has been for a while.

you are right pat. im on a paper loss for sure. it sounded great in the investors chronicle just before the buy backs! i dont know if you read the other board, but mentioned over there, i think the current issue is that esken (former stobart) went in to administration, they own a chunk of these shares. so ldg has cancelled the buy back, hoping that the administrators are forced to sell the shares back to ldg really cheap. this would be good for the nav discount here, and im sure simon thompson could tell us again how the discount is going to narrow, whether it then would or not i dont know. i guess there is nothing stopping esken just using a broker and doing a book build to sell the shares? either way, these shares could be very cheap soon, i think that explains the selling. then of co****, largest holding alliance pharma, complete s**t show. my only comment there is that blackrock had 1% short, it looked like they really hurried to cover it, driving the price up about 30% in a few days. did they have competition for the shares from dbay? or why are dbay not buying? doesnt say much about the aph holding.

i took 10000 on friday just to lower my average a little, in the hope that one of the events mentioned above does give me an exit. because if you compare this with a small cap investment trust, that pays a dividend and is better regulated, and is rising share price (most are), then this is a terrible investment. what ever st says.

in february he said this:

estimated net cash backs up 67 per cent of share price

holdings worth £59mn in the price for £21mn

37 per cent share price discount to spot nav

It is certainly hard to be bullish when we are in the dark on so many things. Having listened to the vox interviews again, Judith McKenzie in January and Staveley in November, they both rate this guy Jim. Staveley picks his words very carefully but I think Harry Adams got this in a mess, and the results are poor due to his strategy. Also 2022 was a tough comparator, as there was much higher volatility in fx markets. This could be the basis of the strategy mistake.

Item 3 in their list is geographic expansion, which sounds achievable on the money they have. I thought this paragraph was encouraging:

During the year a new entity and office was set up in Dubai. It is expected that both Australia and Dubai will receive licences to operate during 2024. Revenues generated in the Netherlands for the year totalled £3.9m (9 months to December 2022: £1.6m). The Netherlands will be the central hub for our European operations and the licences granted in the Netherlands will allow the Group to open branches in the EU countries in the coming years.

What ever the previous strategy was, the admin expenses have grossly eaten in to the profit, and this needs to be un done ASAP (which is essentially item 1). Both fund managers had spoken to Jim, so AGFX is not secretive to everybody. Staveley says that these guys are not public markets guys - stating the obvious!.

I already had some of these prior to the drop, and it isnt an ideal situation, but this now has all the makings of a recovery stock. Problem removed (HA), new team in place, perhaps made a poor first impression, but so I will continue to hold.

Is a 1 bagger from here possible? I think so, that would put it back in historic PE multiple more aligned to sector peers. If nothing else I think this can recover somewhat, as it is technically and fundamentally over sold. A further update would make it much easier to buy a few more, ideally spend some cash on a broker note FFS.

The 36.8p buy today is very telling of the real supply and demand situation here.