Member Info for Dartron

I sold some at a loss. Think there are better opportunities around to make money this side of Christmas. I did watch the meeting and was impressed, but I cant see there being much demand for the stock in the short term.

Well if the hedge funds keep reducing this by 8% per week, it wont take long for buyers to arrive. It might not be super cheap just yet, but its looking reasonable value. If they maintain the dividend, you would be looking at a yield of over 6.5%, and by my estimates a fwd PE of 11 or less which is a little better than historic average of 12. I think business has picked up for them over the last few weeks (from my store visits) and I think the autocenters offer a good opportunity. If they can just figure out what to do with the lesser performing retail side. Halfords being quite a unique brand and proposition, I would say it is likely we are getting close to TO territory.

Yes I think that is how it will play out. I expect that is why Kempen sold, though personally I have bought and am happy to hold when suspended as I am expecting a TO here. I have also read that the takeover can happen when the company is suspended so this might never come back. That just leaves Blackrock who have about 0.86 short to close before the end of the month, I would have thought Kempen selling has facilitated this.

I am glad that Butterworth has left. Id like to think he would have been the first sacking once Dbay were in charge.

Peter will remain at Alliance until 30 June 2024 to facilitate a thorough handover. There's your clue to when things might improve. (Utter P take that a thorough handover could be done in less than 1 month, perhaps demonstrates how dispensable he is). Expect audit / final results to be ready after he is gone, then they can kitchen sink everything.

Dbay are in a good position to make an offer, but like a hunter chasing a wounded animal, there is no rush to go in for the kill IMO.

Try typing the full name of the trust in to youtube. Sometimes you will find a presentation and that might be helpful.

Safestyle was a prime takeover target IMO. They owned a factory and a head office outright. They had a good operation but just ran out of cash as sales contracted sharply. They did get taken over in the end, but it was via an administration. jackhammers, from the stocks you post on, you are clearly a bottom fisher. Sometimes, stocks are low for a reason. HSS has no moat, no barrier to entry. Why shouldn't this company that you reference just invest the cash in starting their own hire company? What do they need HSS for? Why not go and buy Speedy? or Brandon tool hire? There are several small independent / family firms round my way who hire out all sorts of plant and tools, it is the type of business almost anybody can start. I still think the sector is saturated, last time I had a builder here, they hired from Travis Perkins, who delivered and collected. Prior to that I had a builder who hired plant from Jewson. More competitors to add to the list. HSS need to come out and explain to shareholders how they are going to differentiate themselves from all these others, and why they should be backed by shareholders (or indeed a acquirer). I would assume that that operational efficiencies of materials supply from somewhere like Travis, would increase margins on tool hire as opposed to a one trick pony like HSS. Perhaps it makes sense for a builders merchant like Lords to consider acquiring this, but again why not just start your own. Can anybody offer some points to why HSS is unique, or stands above its competitors?

You have the reduction percentages round the wrong way. It is 7% of Group revenue and 10% of Group Adjusted EBITA.

I said before, it is the lack of strategy that concerns me. Is this going to be another company run in to the ground as the bod leave just at the last minute. At least the contract runs until early December, so should help contribute to most of FY24. I have not sold today, though I may exit if we get a slight uptick. Clearly this is not a bullish stock.

My own feeling is that YOU may be a little expensive compared to its forecast earnings. The Citywire article does sight the fund managers concerns over earnings.

""Despite the survey and data company reporting in-line results, Arnold said that ‘the underlying mix has proved to be worrying, with a marked slowdown in its core data products business and a larger than expected weighting to the second half to meet its full-year guidance’.""

I doubt GLG and Blackrock are working together, but maybe they both value the company at a similar level and therefore share a consensus. The Blackrock fund trimming a small amount will be due to growth relative to other stocks that they manage, and they are probably coming at it like you or would - "I have to trim something, to buy X..". But the large Blackrock 5% TR1 - who knows? I follow a lot of stocks and I have seen Blackrock come and go at 5% many times and it barely moves the price, so I can only assume its not buying and selling as we know it.

I would have thought the GE will be well factored in to current forecasts. That is the point, people take positions on what is forecast / expected, however things don't always turn out that way, do they. I think its worth holding a piece of these stocks as an investment, just in case forecasts are beaten, offers are made - or in the case of You, they move to the US stock market, which has already been mentioned by the company. I am currently going for quantity of stocks to get exposure. One offer can see a 50% premium. YouGov makes up about 2.6% of my pf. Im not fussed if I am under water on it for a while. I already managed to trade this and make a profit when it hit 980 this week, and then got them back at 930, so shaved 50 points of my holding.

If it helps - Investor chronicle rates this a buy. The broker forecasts are between £9.30 and £15, average consensus is £12.81. I dont think you can go wrong holding Yougov.

I will have had back 48p and I only paid 58.12, so my remainder has cost me 16p, and on todays price I am showing a 50% profit based on 24p share price. I saw a lot of naysayers talk about this one, never understood why. I still think there is upside with a few of the stocks. I also wasnt expecting the buy backs which have helped.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AWE/alphawave-semi-collaborates-with-arm/16507543

Was looking at last years AGM, to see if we might get a trading update. New board, so its possible. But what caught my eye was that RE- ELECT HENRY BECKWITH had 25% votes against. He is the representative from Pacific (family member too), I tried to see how many shares the original founders had, HA had about 11%. I cant see why anyone else with 25% of the stock would vote against this motion, so it is possible that there was a difference of opinion between Pacific and Harry Adams and others. The AGM was in June, and by November they had left.

I still maintain this placing and recent developments could have been over egged to help stake build here for Pacific and Jim Ormond. Beckwith (senior) literally bought as much as he could at 45p - read this thread to see all the buys he made. To be fair to Jim Ormand, he did buy up at 77p prior to the raise.

Not sure if / how original founders have sold stock. I seriously doubt anybody would shoot themselves in the foot and sell under 45p even if they had a major disagreement. Probably sold the stock to Rockwood in November / December time.

I am really pleased to see the Australian license granted. Lets hope the office gets up and running quickly, I believe it was already ready to go. Hopefully the AGM throws some more light on the progress being made.

The 18p target seems rather optimistic, but for now you are getting 5% return on your money.

Have you considered if Ravensworth and Exponent couldn't agree on a deal, they would be deadlocked. Neither can buy any more. There cant be any other suitors due to the ownership of the other 2, in a way there is too much ownership, which is stifling the upside. I cant see other II's taking investment positions just yet given the debt, and cyclical issues this has, and as you said lack of strategy from the company. Hire sector is quite saturated, I don't think there is room for all of them. We dont hear from management much do we, Chart looks bearish as well.

Looking at the Blackrock smaller companies investment trust results from February, they said they had 1.9% in Yougov, it wasn't even in their top 10 holdings.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRSC/final-results-dh4krbh41kik4vf.html

This makes sense, as the BRSC trust is only 700M. If they did own 5% of Yougov, that would be 50M in one holding - around 7% of the trust, which just isnt the remit of such a trust.

The TR1 appears to show a much larger reduction, which also matches the HUGE volume spike for May 2024. You often see this with Blackrock. I have never really got to bottom of why, but I would suspect something else is afoot.

I actually sold my DWF shares off the back of a bearish article in Citywire, only for the stock to be taken over weeks later at a huge premium. I like the website, but it is just one opinion.

Here is the article, please bear in mind the facts when reading. It is never stated that Mr Arnolds opinion has been sought either.

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-yougov-hollywood-bowl-icg-berkeley-trainline/a2443638

GLG have upped their short, clearly they did not get any of these shares from Blackrock. So where did they go exactly?

I saw the other day that Millennium capital have lost around £400M from being short on Hargreaves Lansdown. It seems to have taken them out of the game - all their shorts suddenly closed. I think shorting these stocks is becoming very high risk.

Also today - NWOR positive trading update, up 5%

Recently - Sold down some FLO after a nice rise. Dumped some of the works stock which was the right call IMO.

Even if they kept the dividend at 3p and 3p, that is still almost 8%. Well above the RFR. Historically though the dividend has been a lot higher. That is the incentive to park cash here. You could be on a 20% yield in a year or 2.

Who knows. Some of these take overs have gone on for a very long time. EQLS for example.

What upside is there here, verses going else where? Though I think this might offer more down side protection if the market sells off over the summer. I reduced slightly last week as I had a few strong stocks to add funds to.

The FTSE indexes are based on mcap. So as the share price has declined the mcap has reduced. Other stocks have increased mcap, so this is where relegations and promotions come in to play. Here is a pretty cool site where you can see the list and sort by capitalisation. https://www.sharecast.com/index/FTSE_250/market-capitalization/asc

Ignore that Primary Health Properties is showing 0, that is a bug IMO.

Regards leaving, traditionally it could have been a problem. Some funds and ETF's may have to rebalance their NESF holding, if the remit is for F250 co's. I say traditionally because right now it seems very few pension funds and II's are investing here any way. I doubt we will see much difference due to it. There are also plenty of quality investment trusts lurking below the F350 (F100 + F250).

On a positive note, I was reading that Peter Spiller of Capital Gearing trust holds Next Energy Solar.

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/peter-spiller-infrastructure-offers-fantastic-returns-and-trusts-are-a-big-bargain/a2443100

The demotion could further serve as a driver for either the BOD to do more to narrow the discount, but not sure what else they could do. Or it could eventually see us swallowed up, which wouldn't be a bad thing IMO. Listening to the investment trust podcast every week, they have been saying for ages now that those funds who are buying trusts, are preferring larger capitalised vehicles (£750M+), for reasons of liquidity. So as the mcap sinks here, the problem perpetuates a little more. I doubt a buy back would move the needle here, but some consolidation in either direction could help.

Iron ore pellets producer Ferrexpo (FXPO), National Express owner Mobico Group (MCG), and investment funds NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF) and Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust (ORIT) are set for demotion from the FTSE 250.

Not a good crowd to be associated with!

Discussions between Alpha FMC and Bridgepoint remain ongoing. Therefore, in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code, the Board of Alpha FMC has requested, and the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel") has consented to, an extension to the deadline referred to above. Accordingly, Bridgepoint must now, by no later than 5.00 p.m. on 12 June 2024

My interpretation of events. DYOR.

Stobart group had 12% of the shares here (64M), then they changed their name to Esken. Then they went in to administration against their largest bond holder Cyrus Capital Partners.

Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. were as of last week 0.61 short. Knowing that the administrators would have to sell off the 64M shares at a low price. Have probably been forward selling for a while. This is also the reason that LDG stopped the buy backs IMO. Enter Richard Griffiths who bough most of it. Well done to anyone else who got some at nearly 40% discount to NAV here. Griffiths is usually an activist, so further events could unfold.

Stobart Group Limited holding 64,149,500

Griffiths ( increase 15.28% - Existing 3.76) = 11.52% * total shares = 525,912,191 * .1152 = 60,585,084

Cyrus Capital Partners, L.P. 0.61 short = 0.0061 * 525,912,191 = 3,208,064

Price is recovering now, as the overhang is gone. APH is looking brighter too. I got a few last week, but wish I had bought more now. Dare we say the low is in now. A break of 12p would end the down trend.