Member Info for Dartron

There is an element of FOMO according to Paul Hill and James Thorne:

https://youtu.be/88OZ2KIOm_U?t=950

I think the rate cut yesterday is bullish for this stock, with US exposure, an element of tech and AI. It is all forecast to rally hard now. My outlook here is years however, this will go private just a question of when not if.

So it needed to fill the gap created on 6th August. Bought a few today, don't see it getting much cheaper IMO.

Added at 252, though you could buy a bit lower now. That is a huge A-symmetrical risk reward. If there is a take over, then should be looking at least £3.00 If not, then £2.40. Even if nothing happens, I think GLG will want to take in their short, so there should be some upside here. I note that the company have not issued an RNS to deny the rumour. Fingers crossed.

I sold mine a couple of months back, to buy a quarterly dividend stock. There is no pay out here until January.

Only a tenth of Eurocell's revenue comes from new-builds, private housing repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity is closely linked to the health of the housing market. And RMI is where Eurocell makes 85 per cent of sales.

From IC mag.

Didnt even drop on Ex Divi day.

GLG increased their short position back up to 1%. That probably explains the drop from 250. I wanted some more of these, so come GLG do your thing. Alternatively they get stung on the results, but from experience GLG don't often get it wrong.

HV did an investor meet on 5th Sept. There was an RNS reach for this, but it is not showing here. The video is only on the investor meet platform (not on youtube). Worth a watch, results in October.

Not a holder, but had noticed the breakout. Therefore disappointing that it broke out last week, presumably as insiders were buying.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etO-49ByAd8

Ceres Power Holdings Plc

CWR : Peel Hunt raises target price to 550p from 500p

Stuart Widdowson of Odyssean Capital was back on Vox just last week talking about GHH again.

I thought it was interesting that he kind of indicated that the management had indicated there were 'question marks' about the H2 revenue. Here is the video.

https://youtu.be/RIOWomGBK8U?t=1964

Credit to Stuart as he has backed his views buy buying more on the drop yesterday, increasing the holding from 10.08 to 11.10%. This was facilitated by some CANACCORD clients selling down.

I do want a few more here, but not sure if we see another drop on results day, or general weakness until then. I guess for Stuart as he says, its hard to buy (the quantities) of stock that he needs. Probably easier for me, to try and catch a few over the next few weeks. So many bargains on offer currently, I think this is one to be getting ready for 2025.

Just under £10,000 purchased. That is not a show of confidence.

My thoughts exactly, added more today.

Extended auction period..

Prudential PLC's first-half results are set to reveal slower growth across the insurer and asset manager's key lines, leading to a less positive view for the rest of the year, Deutsche Bank says in a note. Shares are unlikely to rerate until the market sees repeated evidence of double-digit growth across the book and improvements in macroeconomic and geopolitical themes, analyst Rhea Shah writes. The stock does hold opportunity in the long-term, she notes. The weaker first half can be explained by a strong prior-year comparative and the adverse impact of bond yields. DB cuts its rating to hold from buy and cuts its target price 36% to 865 pence. Shares in London fall 1.9% to 633 pence, while the FTSE 100 is down 2%.

This fund has a regional focus Asia Pacific ex Japan, so worrying about Japan is not relevant. Sure all indexes are down somewhat, but after the volatility the good companies will regain their share prices IMO. The recent fact sheet was very pleasing to read, and as LTI has said, on an income fund its less important what the NAV does, as long as the earnings are there. I would hope that they have some funds to deploy to take advantage of any drops, as this will further improve yields.

Not sure if this is news to those invested here, I dont follow Topps.

https://news.sky.com/story/tile-supplier-ctd-on-brink-of-collapse-as-sector-downturn-bites-13191288

Just for my own notes

FIL Limited........................... 25/7 - 4.60 inc to 5.92 (RNS 29/7)

Schroders............................ 29/7 - 5.08 dec to 4.98 (RNS 30/7)

Odyssean Investment Trust 30/7 - 9.70 inc to 10.08 (RNS 31/7)

Net increases from various trusts.

Ok, found the calculation:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tsr.asp#:~:text=The%20formula%20for%20calculating%20TSR,financial%20benefits%20generated%20for%20stockholders.

I have broken the calculation in to 3 separate ones, one for each year, and make sure that each year returns 23%. We have not had any dividend for 2024 yet, but in 2023, the total dividend was 11.7p. I have assumed 12p in year 1, 13p Y2 and 14p Y3. I assumed the starting price was that of early January, which was 1.85p. So:

2024 Year 1, to produce a 23% return - we need £2.16 share price plus 12p dividend.

2025 Year2, to produce a 23% return - we need £2.52 plus 13p dividend

2026 Year3, to produce a 23% return - we need £2.95 plus 14p dividend

Obviously, there are many ways this figure could be reached, but I think the example highlights a typical scenario, perhaps even an ideal scenario. As I said they could make some of this up by extra dividends or buy backs - they have the cash. A buy back would be a good idea as it would be NAV accretive, but handing out a special dividend probably wont help as the price will drop to reflect the fall in equity. The options are on a sliding scale, but the case I have presented is the minimum required to receive any options. Maximum options will be awarded if the TSR is 39%.

If the CEO can pull this off, her and her team will be handsomely rewarded.

Even with this incentive though, we are well over half a year in to the program, we have share price decline of circa 10% to get back to the starting point, Ebitda appears to have grown by 30%, but without seeing the figures its not clear how this was arrived at - it is also implying that the second half will be better weighted if the prior year is to be beaten. The trading update was up to the 30th June, but excludes income from Lets connect, which was disposed of July 9th - That is somewhat confusing. The revenue has increased by 16%, Ebitda by 30% (comparativley), but the ARR is low single digit as I titled the post (If I could edit the post I would alter the title). Also with so much cash, what return is this earning, which I assume is outside of Ebitda calculation.

Conclusion, wonder they have not started a buy back. What are they planning to do with the cash. I dont think TSR growth or Ebitda of 60% will be achieved organically.