Member Info for Dartron

Previously they had talked about moving away from China (this was over the last 9 months or so). I hope being fairly active that they may add a bit more now. Seems a bit over looked this one regards China. Added today.

I also have Prudential which I think is gaining well on China stimulus and may be worth a look for something altogether different.

Nigel Railton, Non-executive Chairman, on 2 October 2024 purchased 294,387 (circa £100k)

Doubling his stake. Gives me confidence holding my own stake here.

I do feel it was a positive day for the SP, but I did notice that they drove the morning auction down to about 122, so the blue finish might be covering selling (hopefully just another stop hunt). We have one of those daily high volume bars I have been mentioning. Looks like there was some buying throughout the day. Might be a bit early to declare us out of the woods just yet, but someone was active today.

I have noticed Armstrong take positions in investments. That is as much as I know 'them'. I did a very similar thing with Chamberlin, I just kept holding, but that eventually went bust. Armstrong had at least 10% ouch. I wouldn't recommend that approach. Once you are on 50% loss, it becomes very difficult to salvage anything. I think this is performing badly, but it is certainly regulated way better than a Trevor Brown stock. You have the chance of the continuation vote, which will definitely want to wind up. Currently there is still 50% upside. But from what I hear* that could take years to return money to share holders. I think 50% upside is ok for that timescale, and this is in my pension so I can wait. I do trust Schroders from a regulation POV, so its probably not a bad investment as it stands. As was said on this board, I would feel much better if the fund manager bought some shares out of his own pocket. But again, at least they are buying back stock, at 50% discount has to count for something.

I am not offering advice, but you need to think whether you want to wait all that time to see what, 17p back per share. Its ok for me, my average is 11p and like I said it in a pension. I will probably buy some more, based on a TA decision at some point.

*I highly recommend the investment trust podcast each week. Gives you a feel for how these things work, and what's hot etc. They talked about one winding up since about 2018 the other week!! I guess I'm getting old when I look forward to going to bed and listening to this podcast on a Sunday.

https://www.youtube.com/@moneymakers4754

Formerlyeasyp, that is funny. You bought the drop blindly.

Cheers Corry, So a couple more weeks. Wonder what they need that for...

I am going off Trading View which shows Tue Oct 15th. Last year was the same Tuesday in Oct. (so not confirmed by the company but very likely).

All strategies are different, and so are peoples circumstances. A buy at 450 here in my pension is a great result for me. Im up to my target weight, so shouldn't buy any more, but yes the inner chimp! For a trade, I do think it will go lower. I think there will be an almighty drop to go below the 403 price. I think this is the only way they will trigger anymore stops. Could only be for 5 minutes, seen it many times, then a rush to cover. LWHL, we are expecting results in 9 trading days, so either shorts will try and cover somewhat very soon, or they know something and were all doomed except Stumpy.

Look at the daily chart, 3 biggest recent volume days are green. 18th, 24th, 27th.

TLDR: "Er, about your money old boy. We've lost most of it. Nether mind old chap."

The Company reported a NAV of 20.99p per share as of 30 June 2024, a decrease of 17.1% relative to the NAV per share as of 31 December 2023 (25.32p). You would have thought that they could have reported the current NAV up to say August. Its probably worse!

Unhooked, You mean Armstrong investments. Me and him lost our shirts on Chamberlin PLC (went bust), but he did ok on Carclo. He seems to like trash (Ahem, Special situations) just like me.

I would say there is a short working this - as there is on most of my aim shares. And why not, with the Labour government frightening people out of their investments etc. I watch the action here, funny how they take it down on 5 or so shares, then a 25k buy goes through above the ask, probably inter-broker or back to the pool. I would say there are not many punters (buyers), as the price can stick on say 433 to buy for a good ten minutes. I have a good amount of these shares now, and pleasingly I am replacing the extra stock I sold in to the short closing up at 570.

One thing I have really factored in over the last 2 years is prices are pretty detached from reality, as you see when offers come in at 50% premium etc. I cant see how this will stay on AIM, and holding this in a pension I can just wait it out.

Yougov was already cheap around 460p.. here is a recent opinion piece from IC mag (Bear Bull, Dated 26th sept), I will have to shorten it but add the salient points:

Might nerves at the possible removal of Aim stocks’ exemption from inheritance tax (IHT) have something to do with the excess selling? Let’s consider the facts. Fact one is that YouGov shares have, for a long time, performed very well. Even after this summer’s decline, the share price alone has compounded at 15.5 per cent a year over the past decade. Before the start of 2024, the decade-spanning return was closer to 1,000 per cent, meaning lots of long-term investors had some significant tax-free gains to think about. ...In the event, it may be that a sudden and disappointing downturn in trading – coupled with a track record that had given rise to the shares’ rich valuation – curdled just at the moment when investors were starting to fret around a new administration’s approach to IHT started....Otherwise, there’s little to suggest that the stock’s current valuation is warranted. Unlike Burberry, YouGov is guiding for operating profits this year. Priced at 12 times forecast earnings for the next 12 months – a multiple that unprecedentedly puts the stock in line with the FTSE All-Share index – YouGov now looks very cheap. Yes, capitulation cheap.

Guy Rudolph, Chief Financial Officer, on 30 September 2024 purchased 60,021 shares at 33p. (circa £20k)

Well done Guy. Its nice to see directors backing the company.

We can see from the declared data as of Friday Qube Research & Technologies Limited have a little problem of still being short. I wouldn't be surprised if this pulls back sharply for one more shake out as the shorts try and cover. I sold mine Friday happy with 20% in a day. I could be wrong, and if I am so be it. Already ploughed cash somewhere else. Pleased for Ceres, genuinely but the market is very tough out there at the moment and it doesn't feel like the right conditions for a sustained rise IMO.

I had a look at the Tase. Yes it has done very well over the last 12 months. Here is a good article that examines the strength of the Tase and the Shekel. It is quite balanced examining the risks such as the bond yield crossing 5%, but also the current stability in the Shekel (due to the Israeli bank selling its foreign exchange currency to keep stability).

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-despite-escalation-shekel-and-tase-defy-risk-factors-1001490375

Resistance, Your post seems to answer your own question. The Tase has rallied but BatM has not. I agree that it is an outlier to the situation. I dont think it has enough exposure the the Tase, but its hard to check this. The Tase is a secondary listing.

I think an investment here is just dead money, exposed to high level of risk. When you think each year, you need to make 7 or 8% just to stand still.

I did try and watch it. I think the guys meant to deliver a good presentation, but the sound was crap, and the video kept buffering. Going through the CFO numbers were very difficult to follow due to the technical issues.

If they read this board - please get yourself some lapel microphones, do not use the internal mic in the lap top. Perhaps do the presentation from somewhere with better internet.

Disappointing that the price could not break out of 38p, but that is the budget and the labour governments fault. I think the results were as good as to be expected.

I probably jinxed it! Still encouraging though.

Marshal Wallace upped their short to 0.53 on 24th Sept. That is the source of the weakness. He increased from 0.48 to 0.53 so I don't think he has much to sell IMO.

My theory is a short is closing. I have accumulated with average of 17.2 throughout the week. RSI looks really good, should break 18p today.

Those directors were planning on receiving the options. They probably had them for several years. Recently the price was closer to double. Have you considered that they might have taken loans and mortgages that they wanted to settle with the options, which are now worth a lot less, perhaps forcing them to sell all of them? We also have Commie Keer likely to shaft everybody soon, with inevitable CGT hikes, cant blame them for realising gains on that basis. I think it explains some weakness in the London market, people are ducking for cover until the Budget.

GLG have been shorting this for a while. Their point of view is this is still a little expensive. They increased short just before results, then we had the Sky news report which gapped the price up (probably with their help). They obviously took a view that an offer would not be quick to emerge so sold in to the spike aggressively. This gives them a better return (selling higher than first planned). They are now in full bear mode shorting this. They have 1% of the stock on loan.

GLG are a respectable outfit, they probably just have more insight on this (odds / timings etc) than the average PI. And currently the Sky news story isn't much to go on. I'm sure a lot of PE companies regular investigate the valuations of PLC's. I am still happy with my buy at £2.50, that is the price you pay for making sure you are in with a chance should there be an offer. GLG obviously think there is no rush to cover the short, so they are probably right. In general the shorts do not seem fearful of take overs, though I think the Hargreaves Lansdown TO hurt a few of them. I think prices at this level are only going to be temporary, and an offer would likely be close to £3.00 - if it were to materialise, which it might not.

Or just invest in something else? Another lost year for BatM holders. - 30%

Meanwhile .. S&P +25%, F250 +12%, F100 +10%.