Member Info for Dartron

Brickability dropped 7% last night on 12k shares being sold in the UT auction. If you have to sell and there is no buyer, that is what happens. I dont consider it manipulation, rather an in balance of supply and demand. If the stock was trending up, due to the inverse balance you would not be calling manipulation.

Volume was 400k yesterday, the BB bought 120k. Roughly 25% which im sure is standard for a BB. Perhaps we need to consider that a significant holder is selling. Judging from the list these 2 are the only 2 not connected to the company:

Slater Investments 28,183,477 9.79%

FIL Investment International 14,723,352 5.11%

FIL are over seas, so TR1 when they drop below 5%, that probably rules them out as we would have seen it. Could it therefore be Slater. Complete speculation on my part, however it demonstrates how the price might sag if someone were selling in the region of 5%.

Here is a interview where Slater says he likes TIG and recently bought (Nov 2023).

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/mark-slater-beaten-uk-growth-shares-we-are-buying-ii529931

However, NOTE the Slater Growth Fund is open ended, so he HAS TO SELL when he gets a redemption. This might be his weakest stock, or even below some type of stop loss?

Investors Chron, calls the fund a 'dog fund'

...it's striking that four names with large followings have faltered. Slater Growth (GB00B7T0G907) sits on a 120 per cent return over 10 years that eclipses many of its peers, but is down by 13 per cent over a three-year period. (May 24).

All guess work, and probably not helpful, but this is along my lines of thinking and I'm just not worried about the selling.

Ha ha. There is the buy back RNS. Perhaps they did that to further manipulate you all ?

Results out today - not showing here -

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/BRCK/interim-results-for-six-months-ended-30-sept-2024/16781177

Seems to be an inline:

Trading for the first six weeks of the second half is in line with the Board's expectations

New build housing market remains soft heading into the new calendar year

"However, there are some circumstances where Rule 9 may not apply, including when a company buys back its own shares." I am getting this from Googles AI answers, but cant find it in black and white to link to.

I asked this in google : " rule 9 takeover due to "buy back" "

There are many rule 9 waivers, including "buying over 30% by mistake" !!!

I did also find this, where they talk about the concert party agreeing not to make an offer for the purpose of a buy back.

https://data.fca.org.uk/artefacts/NSM/RNS/5122456.html

BGO has shown up on my weekly scanner for high volume. Thought is was interesting as it has bottomed in the very long term channel. Very high chance it bounces here IMO. Chart for anyone who doesn't have trading view:

https://x.com/DartronTrading/status/1860681207404433435

IWant, Many small trades are 'S' System internaliser. They are not actual trades. This site shows them as 'O' which is misleading. S trades are used to set market maker prices, or transfer stock internally. They possibly get abused, but cant really manipulate. Level2 trading is going to have small 'A' trades. That is the point of level 2, it allows price discovery.

If it were manipulation, you would see the stock being bought back in huge chunks which it isnt. Look at the decline in the YOU share price, or CARD, see they move up then drop again further. Drip Sell -> Large buys -> Smaller large sell -> Drip sell...

IMO

GGG, your strategy has made big gains over time, judging from some of your posts. Well done. But having that much in an any stock, is very high risk IMO. I went to check how much I have here, its a bit more than I thought actually - 3.7% of my pension, showing a 5% loss. I will have to watch that. I also have a spread bet on the go, which could be problematic if this doesn't play out how I think it will. Either way the sums are vastly smaller than yours.

I agree with IWantThatOne. I really doubt there is manipulation. Are you really following the wider market? Listening to a few commentators recently, no one is positive for 2025 in UK equities now. Bonds are sounding a good play. Gold is looking good. Why wouldn't there be outflows here. Some investment trusts (not exposed to equities) offering a 10% yield with a 20% discount are way safer than this, but the prices are still dropping. In a nutshell, there are net outflows. Most funds are not interested in the UK, and most punters dont have the money to prop up AIM. I think there will be net selling due to Robbing Rachel. Whilst some commentators try and talk up the fact that taxes didn't go up as much as they could, I think they will rise further once Joe public has been beaten down. (No IHT relief in a couple of years).

I can imagine how you feel trading wise (money aside). I have had my share of gap downs this year. I do think you are being a little unreasonable in your expectations from the management. The price dropped 10 days ago. Give them a chance, rather than saying they have done nothing. They were proactive in coming clean early and have upped the buy back. It think we need to give this until at least the next update (late January) to judge their actions.

Its not possible to manipulate a stock down without incurring very high risk if the stock is genuinely worth more. Savvy participants will buy an undervalued stock and correct the price. The manipulator will lose his stock. I just cant see how you can throw £100k each day at this which gets gobbled up by the buy back to drive the price down. If it were manipulation they would be at least £1M down after 10 days. Who would bank roll that? And for what reason. Assuming Kestrel have to offer above 146p whats the point?

It has to be a seller(s), which means other people dont share our optimism for TIG. people with GGG size holdings who are exiting would have the same effect on the price.

Hi GGG,I get what your saying. I think my approach is different to yours. I am not sure if either you or Stas were already holders. I was not, so my first entry was under 90p. I feel like I cant lose (as long as the company doesn't have a major f'up). I honestly think UK small caps are only 1) trading opportunities. 2) investments for take out.

Lets wind back a minute, TIG was not valued well before the earnings miss. Yes the price might have grown a bit more, but there is no money flow in to uk small caps. You would not get a great valuation either way. We were both in I3, look how that ended. What a joke. (I missed it, as I had sold!) but 40p down to 11p. You could level the same argument at many companies. EQLS has ended with a disappointing offer which is only 20% above SP.

But, rather than complain that things are unfair I would rather embrace the opportunity. If you really believe that is what is going to happen here, then why not increase your stake? Sounds like easy money to me. I am not so sure a take out will happen soon. We cant assume kestrel have the resources or even the appetite. They could I suppose, Dbay bought Finsbury foods for similar reasons and just kept it for dividend income.

I have only had one take out so far, despite mainly buying stocks for take outs. (AFM). I was well chuffed. It got taken for below my first purchase, but I always stay close to the price, so I did ok. Think I made 20%. Its a huge opportunity, if one day you get 20% premium that you can put on another small cap and await another take out. I dont feel like im getting screwed. Getting screwed is when this gaps down to 50p on more bad news.

I think more likely here, the seller will be done, earnings will right, share price will climb. Ill probably sell for 20% when it hits 1.05. Onwards and upwards. I cant ask for more than 20% in 12 months, that a market beating return. If you think that as companies get taken over, we are just with the rubbish on AIM, its not a buy and hold market IMO.

Im with Straight Aim, the lower the better. I commented on the wrong thread, but take a look at Kestrel. I wasnt familiar with IQGeo, but it looks like their buy out did not have a share price correction. They say they have 15 to 20 quoted companies. Without knowing the others, we cant say that Kestrel are sat there waiting to pounce. Maybe they will work with the company and help build value, which is in their interests. There CANT be a low ball offer from anyone other than Kestrel. Chill out, but some stock, enjoy the bargain you are getting. As long as company delivers their part nothing to worry about. As I said, if a fund has to sell for their own reason, they will pick this as it is a weak stock. The price will drop, and we will all get a bargain. Look at DATA share price when Abrdn sold. dropped 12% now back up above.

https://kestrelpartners.com/kestrel-completes-first-take-private-deal/

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IQG/iqgeo-to-be-taken-private-by-kkr-in-163316m-deal-shares-surge-3dgmmg9y87hoghc.html

KKR - will pay 480p per share in cash. This is a 19% premium to the closing share price on Monday.

Just added some more at 82p. 3rd purchase for me.

Have you looked in to Kestrel? Any take over is going to be up to them. Seriously, do some research!

https://kestrelpartners.com/kestrel-completes-first-take-private-deal/

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/IQG/iqgeo-to-be-taken-private-by-kkr-in-163316m-deal-shares-surge-3dgmmg9y87hoghc.html

KKR - will pay 480p per share in cash. This is a 19% premium to the closing share price on Monday.

Just added some more at 82p. 3rd purchase for me.

Hi GGG, sorry wrote the spire figure down wrong. its 50k shares at £2.15 so £107k per day. I feel its decent as they cancel them immediately. Net pool is quite low at £5M total. Please come and discuss Spire on the board when you get a chance, its very quiet over there. Im happy here, I bet there is volume restrictions. Be interested if anyone gets a reply.

Learn something every day!

Go to the London stock exchange website on news for HFEL, you don't see the NAV. But click 'show more news' and there they are.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HFEL/henderson-far-east-income-limited/company-page

Yeah good point re kestrel.

Regards the volume on the share buy back - statements are from memory and reading other buy backs etc. It would not make sense that broker could buy back most of the shares each day, that would be manipulation.

Its not so much the price but more the percentage of the days volume they can buy. If you look, volume is decreasing so they wont be able to buy as much on a daily basis. As an investor, I want to them to buy the stock as cheaply as possible, and preserve as much of their capital as possible. It would be foolish to provide some seller with a great exit up at 88p if he is going to sell some at 82p anyway. I think the 'fix the share price' sentiment is very short sighted. I much prefer 'increase the equity stake as efficiently as possible'.

A few of my shorted stocks are up a bit today, has Putin called off the nukes?

IWantThatone, Spot on. Its just supply and demand. While GGG is getting irate, what is actually happening is that the company are buying shares at a huge bargain. If the price drops, then great. As long as they keep buying like they have, then I have no issues. They cant control the market, and maybe someone is selling for their personal reasons. This cant be the only stock where we have this situation. I have Spire health care, buying back £50k per day but GLG are short 1% and no hurry to cover. Then one day 4M shares went through (1% of company) obviously someone wanted to sell. GLG can probably work this out, as can Spire hence starting the buy back. Broker tips are up around 30% from current price, blah blah blah.

Dont know if any of you were in Yougov, terrible short by blackrock. Just went down for 58 days. Turned out Abrdn went from 7% to under 5% (thats all the info we got). If you think about it, despite record outflows on their funds, Abrdn had a choice which stock they sold. Yougov might have been a good call in the circumstances. Anyway, my point is that if someone has 1 or 2% to sell, they are going to sell. Doesn't matter how many emails you send the company. I really think they are doing all they can. If you look at the holder register, the big guys don't seem the type to sell. But we wont know unless we get a TR1.

https://teaminternet.com/major-shareholders/

We know Kestrel are a buyer, that's the main thing for me. Largest holder, seat on the board, and in the end they have over all say regarding a buy out as they have the most votes, my guess would be that they would say no to any buy out, as I think they want it. However, I have researched other stocks like ANX, and APH where I am waiting for Dbay to pull the trigger and they have not for several years. Kestrel are buying a little moderately, but perhaps this is part of the trade. I have only bought here twice so far. Experience from recent shorts, says take it slow buying. If it is a 5% holder selling, then this could go on for weeks. It has no bearing on the business. Funds sell for all sorts of reasons, and are far less emotional about it than PI's. If this breaks 80p, I will buy some more.

PS, in case anyone doesnt know, TIG changed name from CNIC. You can still go to CNIC on this site and look at Max Roydes buys. This is the cheapest he has ever been able to buy. I think he will buy some more, but probably pacing himself as I said (plus they manage a fund, maybe they dont have much cash, I know the feeling!!). Also in case it is not obvious, this is an old ticker and some of the history re director dealing on TIG are form a previous company. i.e. there was no placing etc.

Buying back £1.30 for 80p is a good thing. I totted up the buys a few days ago, and TIG had bought 0.4% of the company in about 8 days. Amazing. This wont go on for ever - assuming the metrics GGG mentions on Stocko hold up.

Relax. Scale in slowly, not much is due until 2025 from the co now

Barclays cuts Spire Healthcare price target to 290 (320) pence - 'overweight'

Jeffries, 278p

Chart looks ok to me. Volume lower, RSI rising. But market conditions do not favour a big move up.

GGG, I dont think Kestrel would agree to a low offer. They were buying shares at 130, that is not how those guys operate.

As I have said before, this is a good stock to be buying right now. Mainly decoupled from the UK economy, and has some buying in the form of buy backs etc. Im happy to wait it out, I doubt this is going to be a problem compared to others I am nursing. The key is to pace your buying out, recoveries are taking much longer now. I have bought twice, would like more but rather pay more for them than chase them down.

GGG, you are saying that every share could be bought for 85p, but you know this is not the case. At best there is a small percentage available under £1. This is also why most offers for whole companies are at a premium of 50% or more.

I agree with StraightAim in his assessment. The BOD have got way more right than wrong in their history. They did also mention consulting lawyers regarding Shinez. Sounds like thy lost a customer, so this doesn't really reflect on them IMO.

Who is selling, well various factions I would say. Look at this, UK shorts are at a record high over last 2 years.

Economy is terrible, sentiment is terrible, etc etc. Even if this is not short, ask yourself why would UK shorts be a record high.

https://x.com/runningprofits/status/1858581190870958535

This is ironic as TIG is earning in dollars, and business focussed globally or certainly US centric.

80+ Retailers write to Chancellor over Budget

- Includes CARD -

https://x.com/DartronTrading/status/1858927480297402573

Link to the letter and list of signatories.

I think she has experience of dealing with complaints.

Underwhelming. Now paying the price of all the acquisitions, with not much benefit. The 8% FCF is going to disappear in April when the NI rise comes in.

Company should not be paying a dividend, but reducing debt and then reducing shares. No more acquisitions, prove existing operations are growing earnings. I get more doubtful this is ever going to produce significant profits.