Member Info for Dartron

Wolverine Asset Management increased short up to 0.6%

bit of a head scratcher this one, I cant see the bear case here. I will gladly add if we get a good dip.

I note Simon Thompson rated SREI as a hold - yet only said good things about the REIT in his write up. Another head scratcher, though I am now financially better off ignoring his recommendations.

If Kestrel do not want to take this over soon, then maybe just dollar cost averaging. Shouldnt assume all these players have unlimited resources. I cant buy any more, maybe they are in the same boat.

Market is so down this week, that even if BOD did buy shares, I doubt it would put the price up. Liquidity problem, just no buyers on any stocks. So much for a santa rally, seems more of a grinch bear rally.

I had lost hope of getting more under 40p. Wish I had looked today!

Stas, the info for the buy backs in the spread sheet is from the RNS. I have not inferred anything, its all printed in each one. They tell you the VWAP on each RNS (Vwap for the amount they purchased, so you multiply that by amount to get cost), not necessarily VWAP of the trading day. Cheers.

"Volume weighted average price paid per ordinary share 92.3243 pence"

Thanks all.

The numbers from the 9 months are in USD. I should of converted them to GBP, in the context of buy backs.

Regarding the debt, they are keen to repay the debt. They have stated this in the investor meet, and said it might be a reason for a lower valuation. I cant see them using debt for buy backs.

Going through the numbers in the trading update for 9 months, gives an insight in to the spare cash available each month.

Operating profit 9 months 31.2M -- (3.46M pm)

PBT 9 months ---------------18.3M -- (2M pm)

PAT 9 months ---------------- 11.9M -- (1.32M pm)

The report also says - buy backs over the 9 months were 13.8M (1.53M pm) Dividend 6.4M (0.71M pm)

To me, it feels like £1.5M to £2M is affordable per month for the buy back, perhaps with some cash flow smoothing. By this, I mean that I think they went hard in November and may need to ease off in December. Although December is actually a short month. I still also think that the BB are a function of volume traded, although we have discussed this before and I agree that it is not stated. I took the trouble to produce this info on the buy backs for November an December (so far).

You can see that:

- They spend £2.5M on BB in November (more than an average month on many metrics).

- There are low days for what ever reason.

- The BB have increased since 9 month results were published.

- They could still hit £1.5M for December, which feels about right.

One reason I produced this data was for GGG, as I disagree that there is 'no reason' to be easing off. Food for thought GGG.

Dartrons TIG buy back spreads sheet (merry Christams TIG'ers).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wRD9Z7Kpfl48B_UhhJWyEyhirlZC-5jweUtGpQ62HIg/edit?gid=0#gid=0

Guys wanting to research this, if you don't know the company changed ticker a year or so ago. It used to be CNIC. You can go on this site and browse the RNS from CNIC. I just took a quick look (busy today) but here is what I think is Kestrels first buy back in 2015.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CNIC/tr-1-notification-of-major-interest-in-shares-916slomj5ws3yq7.html

You could go through the TR1's to get an idea of what price they paid. Also note, there were a few placings early on, that is why II's probably reduced. So Kestrel are coming up to holding this 10 years... might be time to 'make that move'.

Agree. Fully loaded.

Started a new thread regarding today. Yes It is a bit disappointing that the buy backs have eased off a bit, and we appear to have had a seller today, which has taken a chunk out of my profits! But I just wanted to say that you have to bear in mind the companies cash flow. If they really pulled out all the stops recently when the price was lower, they might be low on free cash. We cant just assume that they can magic up £200k every day indefinitely (£1M per week). What if they have a large bill to pay? It is also one of those situations, where it is in the best interest of the company to pay low for shares, rather than chase up the price. Most buy backs work like this, in fact credit to TIG for buying so aggressively down at 77p.

I was very tempted to add today, is it just a pull back, which is natural. However, fully invested across all my accounts.

It is difficult to value this GGG, or any stock the way things are currently. The reason is because it is the market that values stocks, and valuations are dropping despite what the companies do. I am in a different situation to you, that I am in profit, so will just let it run, with a stop loss. As long as I like the progress being made. I own a lot of stocks bought on drops, in theory the worst has already happened. Need to watch US economy as a proxy for TIGs ad revenue I think.

Thanks SB. I need to read it properly.

Crl, The best way you can repair your account, is to avoid pre revenue companies and speculatives, like TXP. You still have a chance to make decent returns out of far more tangible businesses, which are on multi years low. They present far less risk, which is the thing you must focus on, not returns. Why not buy stuff like Volex, Luceco, Spire health... They all offer upside, just not as fast as TXP. The difference is that these companies are decent, and cant really go much lower. Eventually they will get taken private and you will get your big win. I hold nothing that is pre-revenue in my pension. I will trade those type of stocks over a course of days, (just got some Ceres power), but dont bother with market maker story stocks like TXP. I bought TXP back in 2019 at 19p, went up then down. Sold last year at 78p. Dont even follow it now, its a story stock pushed around by large traders. As I was selling, that member of the BOD John someone was selling his stock too. No one could understand why. I mean its down another 66% from my exit. As I was selling people would post how many millions TXP were getting each month, but as I understand it, it never happened and they now loaded with debt. Not saying Stas and GGG wont make money, but it will be from trading it. If it had decent prospects, II's or BOD would be buying. There is almost no II ownership in TXP. Its junk. I would be careful taking the attitude of waiting it out. Why not find something with a bit of momentum and less risk, make it back that way. There must be dozens of other TIGs out there, for you to spread the risk around. I still think its not too late for a small punt on Angling direct. I think 10% in 3 months easy, and no risk. Honestly, its the types of stocks you are going for which is making it difficult as you dont manage risk. Im the same with risk, hence greatly reduce it by stock selection. Happy to discuss this further away form the board if you want to contact me.

Gavster, I agree that a fund is selling, might be good to catch the bottom. The broker Stifle down graded this to a sell, so we should expect sellers.

This from GCP report today (I think has read across here)

This year, financial performance continued to be driven by electricity prices and inflation. A material cooling in both factors resulted in downward revaluations during the year and had a resulting negative impact on profitability. The Company generated total profit and comprehensive income of £19.5 million (30 September 2023: £30.9 million).

I noticed how poorly covered the dividend is.

I dont think its quite like that. They run an OEIC (by invite). I take your point that they list other persons as holders of TIG shares, and that there is a break down of who owns what, but it clearly states that they Kestrel have control over all of the voting rights. Max Royde is actually CEO of Kestrel, and Kestrel have already taken a company private. Worth a read I think for you IWTO. What it does mean with absolute certainty is that they can block any other approach as majority share holder. Although they have taken IQGeo private themselves (I think it is still part of the OEIC), they could also in theory facilitate a buy out by another PE firm, and then vote it through. I cant see why else they would want so many shares here otherwise.

https://kestrelpartners.com/funds/

https://kestrelpartners.com/kestrel-completes-first-take-private-deal/

https://kestrelpartners.com/max-royde-appointed-to-the-board-of-centralnic-group-plc/

No, I meant this as an investment. Now rates are higher, one can do far better investing elsewhere. In the high rate environment this business does not generate enough distributable cash IMO. Hence more appealing when it was hard to earn 5% elsewhere. That is why it has sold off for over 12 months.

Trading view shows December 12th

Not owned by NESF:

https://x.com/Punkbudgie_/status/1866247180962374021

Damaged by recent storm.

UK wind have changed their fee structure to lower of mcap or NAV.

NESF still pay fee based on NAV.

https://x.com/ITinvestorUK/status/1866422182970093610

Scarfel, I think the net debt is ok, and cash is being used well, dare I say even frugally. But, the issue and perhaps what you are getting at is this: Acquisition consideration payments of £4.1m in the period related to contingent payments in respect of prior year acquisitions. Following these payments, the estimate of future contingent consideration payments is £15.2m, which will be satisfied by December 2027.

So over the next 3 years the company is going to pay out (currently) a further 15.2M. There was also the further dilution by about 10% of the share count, but to be fair if you see the other RNS, they are at least starting to buy these back. The issue here is like many other buy and builds, the funds are diverted back in to buy and build. I think the free cash flow is a bit misleading, as its not really free to use otherwise. If you look at the cashflow table in the report, it actually ends negative as a net outflow. I am still yet to be convinced about significant organic growth here.

We also had the RNS reach last week of another firm in Brighton bought, so the acquisitions seem never ending. Yet BEG just cant replicate the large scale like FRP. Does each small acquisition really add much to the overall margin?

I still hold, my expectations are tempered for all of the above, and even tempered further due to the coup in Syria!

I think in a low interest rate environment this investment looked a lot better than it does now, perhaps that is what ED is really saying, though I have yet to read their report.

If you like buy backs, I bought some ANG yesterday. They have 13M cash, 27M mcap. Just launched a 15% buy back.

I am targeting a 10% gain over 8 weeks - exit at 44p. I think the BB has not even started yet, there have been only 4 trades today. Different product, but similar circumstances to TIG. Another low stress trade hopefully. What do you guys think of JSE, now Blakeys left? Im underwater there but optimistic.