RE: Under 400GBX8 Jan 2025 21:14
Ridiculous takeover price burgess. Looking at the shareholder register, no insider in YOUGOV holds significant shares to say yes or no to an offer. On the other hand, institutions own around 35%. Many of who will gladly take £6 per share for an exit. These funds have needs for cash arising from redemptions, and perhaps better opportunities elsewhere. I think there would be little opposition to a low ball offer here. I would speculate further that the founders would be happy to sell the rest of their shares etc (they are already multi millionaires). I mentioned the TIG deal, that actually let share holders remain invested, but unlisted. So if an insider wanted shares, they could still have them. Being unlisted would save on AIM admin, and frankly having to answer to pesky shareholders. Allow PE to ride out the down turn and break it up, or re list it after a good asset stripping.
The fact they bought CPS GfK in an all-cash transaction for a headline purchase price of 315 million and the total mcap is now only 440M is exactly why this will get snapped up (obviously there is debt as well). I think the mistake PI's make is that they assume a fair price will be paid. That isnt going to happen here as there isnt anyone aligned with share holders interests. If BOD get job offers, shares in new owner etc, they will sell you out without a second thought.
At £6 offer, someone buying today could stand to make 50% return, so I would vote yes.
Before you start, im not interested in 3 years time, that kind of thinking rarely works out.
One other point, reading this back, if they miss guidance again, they could end up like Capita, and need to start selling all the goodies off themselves, meanwhile being perpetually shorted as a penny stock - it could happen. Id rather get a quick exit.