Member Info for Dartron

Yes. Its the shorts I think. GLG has 1% short, and has been for around 12 months. Then we had 2 quants turn up from USA recently. One has gone back under 0.5 so is only showing as 2 now. However, having given the whole situation a lot of thought, I think that some hedge funds like GLG and Blackrock are just smashing these stocks down (exclude quants from this). I think they are relying on fund outflows, meaning they are almost guaranteed a profit by selling short as there is a constant drip of forced selling from funds. The only part that doesn't add up to me, is what happens when a bid comes. I posted a similar post on Yougov and mentioned the take over of APH, where Blackrock were short and the TO was at a 50% premium. 40p day before, 60p offer. I can only assume that once price has dropped from the initial part of short selling, they must be able to cover a fair chunk back (locking in some profit) and then just keep it ticking over on low volume. Meanwhile, gradually re-acquire stock from fund outflows. I think with Yougov if there is sufficient fund outflows, they can just cascade the process and take it another leg down. It works better for unloved stocks, which AT and YOU certainly are. I am also trading / investing in AMS, but I think that is a far better company (and Spire is the same) and would put them in a different category. I think AT is very unlikely to see an offer so shorting this is the safest. (my reason is that this was floated by PE, and doesnt quite meet the take back private criteria as it is still acquiring). Plus the quants see it as a net loser to Trump. Yougov probably wont get a bid, and could really disappoint next week, so I understand the short there too. AMS, put out a fantastic update, that's the best growth compounder, and I think most likely to get a bid. Perhaps with Octopus owning 19% it makes shorting safe, as it cant be a low ball offer. I am wondering if there FY results include a bid next month.

However, the hedge funds are hell for leather shorting this stuff right now, as that is where the money is. There just isnt any demand, and a constant supply.

As I posted over on You, anyone with a pension is almost bagging up 'sure money' right now, I own all 3 mentioned, and its just a case of waiting it out for a rerate or take over. I am also trading them, as they all spike on good news (deliberate by the shorts). I sold these AT at 627 on the day of the update. Stupid shorts, I can buy them back almost a £1 cheaper. Government should clamp down on what is happening, really it is a wealth transfer from average mans pension (via fund flows) to hedge funds. A self fulfilling death spiral to the UK small cap market.

Even buy backs are not really helping on some stocks. If the S&P crashes, it might help? But I think PE will sweep it all up for next to nothing eventually. I Just keep buying quality, keep near the price, only hold good companies, dont worry about price, focus on value.

at this end of the market, ekf is a really poor investment. at the mcap of ekf (and below), i can find similar companies that are growing, have undoubtable good prospects and also have a clear business plan. ekf is just a nothing i am afraid, been around for ever and just cant seem to make any progress. i think they have got to the point where they dont care for small share holders, or the valuation of the company. bains holds just 0.36% - dont see him buying or him being aligned to share holders, which is essential at the sub 100m valuation. they will wait until the time is right and harwood will get his exit to pe. this could be next month or in 5 years time. meanwhile, this will do precisely nothing as the best case, and of co**** as silverblade pointed out has all the down side of them f'ing up like they did before.

in summary, this is not a growth stock. but it also isnt a stock worth having for income either. think i will look to sell out of this, missed a great opportunity due to having no cash yesterday. ekf your time is up.

I went back and checked the announcements, it seems a bit crazy that they would spend FY24 PAT on share purchases - but they did. They originally announced a 5M buy back in January, extended on 16 May 2024 then in September. I had wondered if it staggered 2 years, but no it pretty much all resides in the FY24. In January 24 the count was 112,066,728, and now it is currently 101,599,466. It has been a good ride for shareholders, getting approx 48% gain over the year.

Dont know if they are incentivised in some way, such as a total return, options for increase in EPS over a period? I also noticed along with the original buy back they hinted at special dividends, so were they really trying to raise the share price for some reason? I think the post from Lorenzo highlights a valuable lesson regarding considering use of cash, it has clearly helped him sell out at a decent profit. I tend to take a view on small caps and stick with them once I buy. I do think Ecel could get a bid - and this may have been another motive of the BOD to pump the share price. For that matter I stick with stuff like this,but again kudos for your methodology.

I guess capital allocation aside, the odds were more in favour of a disappointing update due to the economy and Rachel Reeves super economics.

Yeah, I listen to anything about shorting. Im always interested to hear the other side. Hence my genuine questions to flatliners below.

Really? Reading the RNS is very down beat, £3M extra cost thanks to Rachel, no signs of improvement in RMI, buy back nearly finished. Eurocell is a good company, and it is worth accumulating but until the economy improves share price will struggle. It could still be an acquisition target. I will hold. EPWIN also off by 10% over last few weeks and much better update IMO.

Https://youtu.be/toPprmhzkl8?t=2605

Peter is a great to listen to. His recent investor meet for his own trust is worth a listen too as he faces the same issues most of us will face trading in and out of IT's trying to time the Macro.

Flatliners, i do agree about the hedge funds shorting but tell me how it ends well when an offer comes in. I posted before about Alliance Pharma, got an offer for 60p, think it was trading under 40p. Furthermore, everyone knew it would get an offer, DBay had 29% and taking co's private is their stated objective. Blackrock were short, so they lost 50% of paper profits that day. I checked days later and they were still short, so they must of needed to buy back. The only way I can rationalise it being safe, is if they start shorting above the TO price - which they may have just with APH, but in that case a 14 month campaign for no profit. I really do agree that what you are saying is what is happening, but once you start getting to these levels, tell me how PE wont take advantage of the hedge funds? Especially here with such low II ownership. Anyone levered up here will get wiped out? There are some great interviews with shorters online, and they all talk about the risk being unlimited to the upside, which is why these short positions are usually a tiny fraction of a long/short book. Dont forget Hedge funds are professional traders, when it is time to flip long they will, i think the amateur CFD/Spread better will be last to know. Interested in your thoughts. Also do you have a valuation where you think this becomes too risky to take it short (assuming no black swan events here, which by their nature cannot be predicted).

Side anecdote, was working for an AIM listed co recently (indirectly), heard internal profit warnings, recruitment freezes etc. Thought to myself I should short that. Never did. It dropped over 50% on a profit miss. Kicked my self, biggest sure thing tip off I have ever had - 100% gain passed up! Even this scenario for yougov is almost in the price here.

AMS and AT recently both put out good updates and shorts let it spike as you said. But back down now. As an investor, to me this is just 'sure money'. Its not a question of if but when those companies get bids. Most people putting this stuff in a pension just need to wait it out. Its so predictable I was even able to trade them as you suggested. It surely only works if there are fund redemptions? Again - thoughts?

Here is one good interview from Ennismore Hedge fund short seller

https://youtu.be/BPeJb-E_AoE?t=598

Yes but conversely the cash is not being spent. I guess the NAV increases more from buy backs, but the cash balance decreases. Perhaps as new owners, you would like to vote for a dividend and scrap buy backs, or new acquisition.

I really think buy backs are only because it is public listed and they dont like a low valuation. once it is private this wont matter.

Unhooked, I believe 45p value today, with what has been achieved. I say that as a share price target not a brokers target that is never met. 12 months out, I have no idea. I got the impression that they wont need to make further investment by FY26, and in that case this could pay a dividend, like it did before. All depends on how well they execute the growth plans. I think it was blatantly oversold at 27p. However there are just so many bargains out there..I have actually been looking for similar companies that have turned a corner after a hicup. Plenty out there.

Saw how small the buy back was, imagine buyer is saying to company not to buy more? took it as positive.

I am not selling my core holding, a lot of the time, this drop is the market makers looking for shares.

But also, need to ask yourself, what is a fair value of AGFX, if it does get frothy, then sell.

I think 45p, but not based on much other than the last placing.

Listening to Vox markets yesterday, they made a point about the TicTok ban in the USA. Although unlikely to go ahead, this is a source of rev for TIG. Had not considered that before.

Interesting post Target Practice. I have watched this for a few months, and bought today. The mcap is now 84M and the last reported debt was 86M, so combined we have 170M EV. According to the broker note from Cavendish, they are forecasting Adj Ebit of 16.8M for FY25, so that gives an Ev/Adj Ebit of 11.07. This is actually about the historic average, listed in the broker note from '22 to '26: 10.5 11.3 10.4 11.9(E) 10.0(E). Note the mcap was 113M (sp of 100p) at time of broker calculations. Hence your point, that it needed to get cheaper.

I think for the price you are getting a much better opportunity now with Atech acquisition. I only took a starter position, and I have already decided to be patient here, but I do think that at £180 EV with £40M of Net tangibles, this is looking cheap enough to get a bid. If that does not happen, then hopefully they can achieve the growth needed to hit some of the broker forecasts which are well over £1. Be interesting to hear the next update, and add further to my holding.

Still trending higher, but buyer is taking his time, hoping for weak hands.

I had to sell some, I was so heavy on this, it was stupid. Still my largest holding. My broker reports a fair value of about 50p.

I was buying before it crashed, and refused to fold my hand. Finally made up losses and now in profit, and sold down a little.

Bought more today, just a few at 3.51. May go lower, but want to be ready when this bounces or news drops.

They bought CPS GfK in an all-cash transaction for a headline purchase price of 315 million and the total mcap is now only 418M.

Pearill, surly worth adding more to lower average. Really solid company, cant see much down side at these prices.

Does anyone think this could get taken over, or MBO, I see J Hornby did it before.

Just realised who you are ;)

I like AT, but be careful with these shorts. They took AMS right back down again, even though update was (IMO) better than here. I sold mine today, as had 25% profit, and will buy if it does retrace at some point. However, worth considering JUGI investment trust, as this is their 3rd largest holding. So I added there, to see if I can get a rerating there too. I didn't realise I was exposed twice to AT, and JUGI pays around 4% dividend (after my 25% gain here, which I wont be giving back!).

Results for 22........23.........24

REV............42........50.........??

Adj Ebit....11.5......10.8......7.5

PBT............10........8.3........??

Not very good IMO. Makes IOF seem expensive. Sneller needs to clear out the BOD, and get this delisted.

Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/four-blackrock-trusts-make-deal-with-saba/a2458205?re=127840&refea=2084594&link_id=1800023

bit more info / context