Member Info for Dartron

Why does he always go short right at the bottom. Perhaps I bought his stock that he sold.. well chuffed with some under 60p. Another bagger in the pension.

Well have you heard of inverse Cramer? Basically you do the opposite of Jim Cramer and make money.

I think we have our own lead generator here, inverse Apendragon.

If you want to make some £$$£$ then he just went short 120k on IOM. A stock already under historic valuations, with a similar story to Yougov (recent high value acquisition..). I am long IOM. I was long YOU, but someone had to sell him back those shares....

ps, you can tell he is classy by his posting. Good day sir!

Well Schroders PLC are voting with their feet. I am amazed the price didnt drop, unless there was short covering.

Hi Everestingly, I listened to maverick Staveley on Vox. I actually listened twice. I couldn't believe it, that he was bullish on everything, but came across negative on AGFX. Why did he say that he was only 50% confident in AGFX making the turn around that they had stated. (this was actually in answer to your question!). I am a realist too, and do agree that there is some execution risk, but I was surprised when he said that. Surely if he feels like that, he should exit and put his money in one of his other stocks that he was bullish on. The 80/90% within a year doesn't make sense either, that is just saying we will know whether they managed it or not in a years time. He also mentioned the incentives are due out soon - which I have no problem with, though some other stocks I hold with SP targets (and total return) will not be hit due to market weakness. Hopefully it gives a timescale for something decisive.

apendragon using £244,800 worth of leverage. (68000 * 3.60), likely margin of £48960 (68000 * 3.6 *0.2).

quarter of a million on the line, unless of co**** its all just bullsh*t.

I do not see why 10% tarrifs effect Prudential. Just a wider market drop.

You won't believe this. Travelling up north. Stopped for a meal and had a cruzcampo. I only recalled this chat looking at the empty glass. GUYS that IS a preninition. I'm going all in on Monday.

SREI looking good plus no stamp duty

Should have written - Wednesday is the last day you can BUY them

To qualify for the dividend you must own the shares on Friday - the dividend day. Because it takes 2 days for the trade to be logged to the new owner, Wednesday is the last day you can sell them and get the dividend. Therefore Thursdays the shares would be bought without dividend rights. Thursdays are always Ex-Dividend.

Just finished a can of Thatchers haze. IF we see £12, ill upgrade my beer to those more classy items you suggest.

Just to explain, those sites make estimations. Nothing has been announced yet. When it has, those sites may update. I use Trading view, and it will put an icon for the dividend once it is announced, which it is not.

Check out Harbour Vest private equity, they have just mentioned they will doubled the pot for returns to share holders, huge discount still.

Gate13, that used to bother me too, but really it makes no difference whether the shares are held in Treasury or cancelled. When (if) they want to issue new shares to sell in to the market, they would either issue new ones (if shares had been cancelled) or use the treasury ones. Treasury shares are not used for NAV, so it makes no difference what they do with the shares, they are as easy to magic up as they are to cancel.

Hedge funds can keep shorts open for a long time. To be short of stock, just incurs a cost similar to interest on a loan. Its possible that the lender may request the stock back, but thats straying off into technicalities that are not important. From the jist of your question, your asking about how this might end. I think the HF's are probably in the later throws of this short, since the trading update was good here. What you have to appreciate is that there is very little buying pressure from anyone else, so they can slowly take in stock. We might start to see a rise as this happens. There are web sites to check the short positions so I look for them to start to reduce. For EG, I am long BYIT, which was up to 3% short. Last 2 weeks that has drifted higher as a player is closing short - confirmed by the website. I expect that will happen here, but I just think this stock is a bit different and a bit more unloved, so we may not notice much happen any time soon. You may well see some fireworks over at YOU tomorrow, it was up 7% today, and it could go again tomorrow. I think their update is early next week. Shorts have to protect themselves, anything could happen in the TU, such as a offer or price changing news.

If you like the stock, its a really good time to buy. It cant stay mis priced for ever (assuming AT continue to deliver).

I'm out.

Plenty of decent small caps at similar depressed levels. Leave Mr Bains to shuffle his deck chairs, when time affords him to do so.

UBS raises Prudential price target to 1,270 (1,200) pence - 'buy'

Nearly spat my beer out.

[part 3 Sept 24]

If the revival of the private RMI market takes longer than expected, therefore, investors could be in for a few more years of meagre returns. And the low levels of liquidity mean the shares could come under further pressure if results do disappoint.

However, there is a limit as to how far they can fall.

Even after this year’s bounce, Eurocell’s shares trade at just eight times forecast earnings at what seems to be a low point in its earnings cycle. End markets look depressed this year, but the consensus among analysts is that earnings will rise by a third. Earnings are expected to increase by a further quarter next year and by 14 per cent in 2026.

The cheapness of the shares is reflected in the company’s price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio, which is a measure of how much investors are being asked to pay for expected earnings growth. A ratio below 1 suggests shares may be undervalued. Eurocell’s PEG ratio is 0.3.

JO Hambro Capital Management is the company’s second-biggest shareholder and the managers of its UK Equity Income Fund said last month that they see upside potential of more than 100 per cent in Eurocell's shares, based on their target price.

Management also believes the shares are too cheap. Having launched a £5mn share buyback in January, the team doubled it to £10mn in May and announced a further £5mn round this week. With the company also paying out £6mn in dividends last year, investors are at least being rewarded for their patience.

[part2 Remember this from Sept 2024]

A new five-year strategy is also being rolled out by chief executive Darren Waters, who has only been with the company for a year but has suitable industry experience, having previously run window and door components maker Tyman for eight years.

His goal is to grow the company’s top line from £365mn last year to £500mn and adjusted operating profit from £18.4mn to £50mn, which would entail doubling the operating margin. This is ambitious, but not ridiculous – the company was achieving a 10 per cent margin in the aftermath of its IPO.

It will require investment, however. The company expects to spend between £8mn and £10mn on IT systems over the next three years, with a new branch trading system going live in the first half of 2025 and a new enterprise resource planning system being introduced in 2026. The latter is frequently a source of pain for companies, but Eurocell has little choice. Its existing system was implemented in 2004 and is being discontinued by software provider SAP.

The company is doing its best to minimise risk, buying “out-of-the-box” systems to reduce complexity. It also expects more efficient operations as a result, with the ability to automate some processes.

The other main area of spending will be expanding and upgrading its branch network. The company had 214 branches at the end of last year but plans to open 10 more in each of the next three years. Many of these will be in the south-east, where it is currently underrepresented.

It is spending another £2mn this year on branch relocations and reformations. This is because it is shifting towards larger-format stores, with a greater a focus on its “extended living” range of conservatories, garden rooms and simple home extensions.

Doors and windows also present an opportunity. Waters told investors that he was surprised to discover that doors and windows only account for about 10 per cent of branch sales when they could be the "centerpiece" of the business.

So Eurocell trialled something new at six locations last year, training branch staff, improving the quotation process, reducing lead times and sharpening prices. The trial stores saw a fivefold increase in sales volumes, so phased upgrades to stores are being planned over the next two years. Eurocell plans to have 54 improved stores in place by the end of this year, with more to follow next year to allow for an accompanying increase in manufacturing capacity.

Even if the rollout only delivers 50 per cent of its potential, this would generate incremental sales of around £35mn, Waters told investors. “Based on the trial results, this feels more than achievable,” he argued.

Capex is expected to double this year to £18mn and peak next year at £20mn, before falling back to a steady rate of around £12mn from 2027 onwards.

Clearly, this is not without risk. Eurocell operates in a very competitive market – as the failure of its former Aim

Great input on here. I went back and dug out the last IC article from September, thought it might be interesting as mentions investment in capex etc.

.

The maker of uPVC windows, doors and other plastic building products has been in business for 50 years, but during that time it has been owned by its founders, a management buyout team, a Belgian chemicals group and a private equity firm. The latter, H2 Equity Partners, bought the company in 2013, floated it in 2015 and had offloaded its entire stake by 2017.

After debuting at 175p, the shares enjoyed a spectacular run-up during the lockdown DIY boom, hitting an all-time high of almost 290p in May 2021.

Enthusiasm waned as higher inflation and interest rates hit disposable income, however, and the shares fell further as the housing market declined. Although only a tenth of Eurocell's revenue comes from new-builds, private housing repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) activity is closely linked to the health of the housing market. And RMI is where Eurocell makes 85 per cent of sales.

After reporting a 4 per cent fall in sales and a 40 per cent drop in operating profit last year, trading is still muted. Sales in the first half of the year fell by 5 per cent, although pre-tax profit rose by a third on the back of lower PVC resin prices and efficiency gains. "Tough" trading conditions mean brokers' full-year profit forecasts remain unchanged.

Eurocell's rally is minor compared with peers; shares have risen by 8 per cent since January, while the FTSE 350 Construction and Materials Index is up by nearly 30 per cent. Indeed, it has massively underperformed the index since its market debut – its shares are a fifth below their IPO price, while over the same period the index has more than doubled.

Part of Eurocell’s problem is its size. In a part of the market that has witnessed big outflows, attracting fresh investment can be tough if your market cap is only £150mn. This is evident in its share trading history, where volumes are weak.

Of the first 169 trading days this year, fewer than 100,000 shares changed hands on 79 of them. Attracting new investors will require the company to improve its track record and generate more profit that can either be funnelled back into the company, returned to shareholders, or both.

On this score, things look reasonably good. During the period of slower sales, management took action to address the cost base, taking out £4mn of annualised overheads and getting a firmer grip on inventory, cutting stock by around £13mn.

Net cash from operations improved by £17.7mn as a result, which was used to pay off debt. If lease liabilities from its nationwide network of trade counters are excluded, it currently has net debt of just £4.3mn.