Mismanagement of capital12 Mar 2025 17:59
Perhaps some of the rampant bulls should have a think about the buy backs. The company had 99M debt in Sep24, and up to that point had spent $13.8M on buy backs in the financial year (shares around 1.30p). You could say the $13.8M has been wasted buying something that is now worth under half that price. Then we had price crash no1 and the company (has not released official figures) but at the time, I tallied up at least £2.5M spent on buy backs at 80p to 105p, again this money has now been wasted somewhat. To top it all, we still have 99M of debt (last reported).
So not only have the BOD made a poor acquisition - Shinez, but they have also wasted at least half as much again buying back stock that has halved. I am genuinely intrigued to see if the CEO is able to keep his job come the AGM at the end of the month. I am also wondering what Kestrels next move could be, because Kestrel only own 23%. I would be more concerned that they are not buying stock. I do think 60p is about right currently, which may be one reason they are not buying. Perplexing, but one thing is for sure, CEO Michael Riedl and CFO Billy Green have a lot of explaining to do.
With the debt, the EV here is currently £219M. The ebitda forecast is £50M (taking the value in the middle of their guidance) so this is looking about fair for now, 4.5 times for a company that cant get much right. On that basis, they ought to stop the buy backs (which is only massaging the EPS and assisting Kestrel to own more and more of it), and focus on debt reduction and perhaps a strategic review, since it appears they have hit a brick wall, or should I say had hit a brick wall in early 2024.
Annual report for the financial year ended 31 December 2024 on Monday, 24 March 2025. Are we going to see more dirty laundry on that day?