Member Info for Dartron

Aviva - AV. is another. Quite normal.

As in most investing, the job of the fund manager is to recycle capital. It would make sense to be reducing these positions in mature / ex growth companies and putting the money in to new companies with more growth in earnings ahead of them. This is stated quite clearly in the various reports:

there are still numerous bright spots, with India, Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea providing strong exposure to growth themes

in the region. Companies in these countries are also demonstrating evidence of dividend growth. Areas such as Indonesian banks, firms exposed to South

Korean corporate reform, and Taiwanese technology firms have been providing high and growing dividends.

I think a better comparison would be to focus on the NAV over those years vs the benchmark, as that is really all that matters (from your point of view). I doubt we would see evidence of dividend stripping the way that you are looking for it. Overall I am happy with HEFL, but I guess one nagging doubt I have is the constant issue of new shares, I wonder if that is actually paying for the dividend, and is actually adopting a Bernie Madof strategy.

Even so, all that matters now is the future, not the past. If I can see my entry price again, then I will have had a yield of 10% for 2 years. I need to see 240p which I think is possible. Im less keen to hold asian equities due to Trump and global security, so I would sell if I saw 240p. Not the fault of the fund.

The board's primary focus is maximising shareholder value. At this time, there can be no certainty that any agreement will be reached, nor as to the terms of any such agreement, including if sufficient value is not realised. Further updates will be provided as appropriate," Next 15 said.

Thanks, i have followed him, are we connected on x? I am https://x.com/DartronTrading

I will look at ELIX - thanks. I really think AT. is a screaming buy right now, and it may have just put a bottom in.

I post my pf every now and then on X, if you want to see what I have - always happy to give the honest low down on what I own, good and bad.

Thanks again.

Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/NFG/statement-re-press-speculation/17108541

Scooby, how did you pick up the story so quickly, or rather, how could I pick up a story like that next time ?

Https://news.sky.com/story/crisis-hit-marketing-group-next-15-approached-about-200m-break-up-13389288

A person close to Next 15 insisted that any potential break-up would reflect the "simplification strategy" to which it had publicly alluded.

Next 15 declined to comment on the approach for some of its assets, which are also thought to include the creative agency Elvis and Outcast, another PR firm.

Have a scooby snack for your great work.

Crazy, there was a spike of algo buying right up to 239, then it went to auction. My post below was saying 235 over several weeks.

I didnt mention, but I suspect we had several shorts arrive yesterday, I suspect this explains the price dropping all day. I suspect that some can determine the selling of the 2M shares (better level 2 terminal than I have) and just know its an easy trade to get on top off. If the fund has ceased selling, then its time to close the short - especially for the smaller operators.

Lucky I had a limit sell for 1 lot at 230. I was annoyed at the time it sold because I need the whole lot to get to 250, however I just bought it back for 225. Lowered my average and increased my margin. Every little helps. Hopefully they have cleared all the sub 220 shares, we might see 230 hold sooner than anticipated.

27-Jun-25 11:54:28 237.00 1,901 Buy* 228.00 237.00 4,505 A

The issue you are really describing was that it was hard to find in Lloyds dealing. Well done for buying some shares, but I think most people know the Ticker (or symbol) is 'AT.'

It even says so in big red letters on this page.. Ashtead Technology Share Chat (AT.)

You did mean to buy this and not Ashtead Group Share Price (AHT) LOL.

Still over 100% upside. I noticed the two large prints yesterday of around 2M shares. I would say that a large fund has cut their position. Im hopeful the price will recover somewhat as that amount of selling in a single day will have seriously collapsed the price. There is a 10.6p dividend to holders next Thursday, so I think there is some short term upside over the next few weeks as price stabilises. If the price can regain 2.35 after the dividend, an entry today will make over 15% short term gain.

I am a holder of NFG, so trying to make the best of the situation. I averaged down yesterday - a few times - as I did not expect the price to drop as far as it did. On reflection afterwards, the forecast pretax earnings were cut from 75.2 to 61.8, which is a drop of 13.4M, or rather 17.8%. The price which was courting £3 has now dropped by around 30%. The pay out of 10.6p is now almost 5% of your entry. Clearly on the other side, the outlook for NFG has weakened, although with the S&P making new highs, perhaps the corporates will loosen their purse strings. I am still of the opinion that the misconduct claims are somewhat of a smokescreen to cover the weak earnings, and a clever way to defer the earn out payment. In my experience when its people who get sacked, it is usually not that damaging for the company - look at BIG technologies, or even BYIT where misconduct did not really affect the business.

Maybe a change of CEO is also a good thing, and on that note, im hoping that they have 'kitchen sinked' everything, and possibly even under promised on the outlook. Not saying NFG is the best stock to buy currently, but after such a severe reaction yesterday I think the valuation looks better now than it did last week. I guess director buying is too much to ask for....

Thankyou for correcting me, good to know.

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NFG/statement-re-mach49-llc-m1dr4gv3f5q8gy4.html

Background

On 1 September 2020, Next 15 acquired Mach49 as part of plans to create an innovation business. On 23 February 2022, Next 15 announced that Mach49 had signed a material five-year contract, resulting in a significant increase in the earnout payable to the vendors of Mach49. Subsequently, on 6 September 2024, Next 15 was notified that Mach49’s contract with its customer had not been renewed after its initial three-year term and would end on 31 December 2024.

The current earnout liability related to Mach49 in Next 15’s accounts for the year ended 31 January 2025 is $91.2m.

Next 15's venture consulting business Mach49 has been a blemish on its track record, Peel Hunt's Jessica Pok and Melanie Yang say. However, no contagion to the rest of the group is expected, the analysts write in a note. The B2B tech marketing agency expects FY 2026 revenue to be broadly in line with consensus, but anticipates profit to fall due to foreign currency moves, lower conversion opportunities within Mach49, and further investment in AI and senior hires, the analysts say. Peel Hunt lowers FY 2026 adjusted pretax profit estimates to 61.8 million pounds, from 75.2 million pounds. More positively, "cash is improved over the forecast period and new management is at hand," they add. Shares are down 21% after the company warned that profit for this fiscal year would be below expectations.

When I read the RNS yesterday, I thought that they had been really clever, and found a way to get out of paying the earn out. I think this is a over reaction today - but we dont know the full extent of the allegations.

However, if there have already been sackings, there must be some meat on the bones. I think this is a well played hand by the BOD. There is also a 10.6p dividend coming up next week.

Did not look decent to me. A loss of 10M, on a 20M mcap company, soft demand, reliant on the public sector..

Still owe huge debts, wafer thin margins.

Stargates TA doesnt work in this case, there is only an 'outside bar' because the spread was so wide on open. If you ignore the first 5 minute of trading, the daily bar would be a doji. I seriously doubt this will break £4 but if it does, I will back the truck up.

Also stargates post about debt fails to take in to account the extra revenue and profits from said acquisitions.

Hello all. Im still happy I sold, though yes I could have got another penny on my exit, a fair few 100 quid, though % wise im very happy.

TimTactics, this is where things get subjective, in theory any investment should appreciate over time. Why not buy Scottish Mortgage, or Harbour Vest, etc etc. INOV is at the racy end of tech and PE IMO, meaning outcomes will be more volatile either way. If things go quiet here for 9 months, while they look for an exit on a couple of holdings, and the Macro deteriorates, it will be hard to sell this. We have already seen Ripley - a P.I. was not able to but on his platform. Im not saying either way if this is good or not, but its one of many, and some of the others do not have trading restrictions, tighter NAV discounts and frankly better track records and more importantly more incentivised management. I would put this in the highly speculative bucket. At 10p and 50% discount it was far less speculative. Some of the investments are not even named.

Between 2015 and 2021, Miles worked as finance vice president at BATM.

I guess your right, nothing has changed since he left.

I cant see a squeeze here, and as I already cautioned, if the results disappoint they will pile in again, look at GBG or NCC.

Its why I hold some, if nothing else its starting to look like a short squeeze could be on. Although shorts have increased again aswell.

Interesting to see who is going to be right.