Member Info for Dar-

Just a further update, for on the 10th December 2018, NMC issued an update - some of which is as below:-

"FY 2018 Guidance:
- +24% YoY revenue growth
- Organic revenue growth approximately 15% for the year
- +36% YoY growth in EBITDA to USD 480m
- Year-end net-debt to EBITDA to stand at c. 3.0x


FY 2019 Guidance:
- +22-24% YoY revenue growth
- +18-20% YoY EBITDA growth
- Excluding impact of acquisitions completed in 2018, FY 2019 revenue growth is anticipated to be 12-13% YoY and EBITDA growth approximately 15% YoY
- Year-end net-debt to EBITDA to further reduce to 2.2-2.4x
- 2019 guidance does not include impact of IFRS 16 implementation or the anticipated consolidation of National Medical Care Co.

IMO (& DYOR) NMC is hold for two years.

The full update on the 10th January was positive

Basically impossible to tell............ Just before I read your note and I can tell you that NMC filed their annual accounts for 31st December 2017 on the 7th March 2018.
On that basis I would expect the annual accounts for 31st December 2018 on ( or about ) the 7th March 2019.

Hello all,
Although not relevant, I have often wondered how Gotham got their facts, with hindsight very accurate. Perhaps we will never know.
Best wishes

Good morning all,
Just a quick reply to various emails. IMO the sp will not show any great movement until TPG reflect a profit (or pay a maiden dividend) in their annual accounts, which hopefully will be this year.
On the 15th January I referred to the statement in the RNS of the same day TPG used the phase - "adjusted operating profit and order book". I had asked for a reply as I do hope that TPG are not considering "future profits". Since then I have spoken to two friend of mine (both CFO's and they would never condone that observations). Of course I will be reading the accounts when published ( I think mid / late March ).
IMO to pay a dividend before a profit is not prudent and "could" create problems for future years.
Like everybody on this BB I believe that the BoD of TPG have the skills to deliver, but a timeline would be my best guess.
ATB

MaxM,
The sentence was actually made by Mr TT (I agreed with him) and we both mentioned Corac (regrettably you did not)
Mr TT's email of the 14.31 today explains why he feels the SP should increase over the course of the next three years, which is any dividends paid (however small) would attract investors, who would ignore TPG, as a non-dividend payer.
I feel that profits need to happen before (very slight different perceptive between TT and myself), which makes no fundamental difference).
No I do not think you are going of the rails.
I was irked that you felt the need to dissect my comments in detail. You do not require me to explain my observations. We all exchange views on this BB and we all believe that TPG have potential and therefore hopefully the BoD will change that "potential to reality"
ATB
DAR

Hello Max,
My interpretation of the phase "If the SP were open to a wider range of investors than at present". Is that TPG group have done very well since the CORAC days, however there is possible some old legacy issues that need to be resolved and when they are resolved the TPG should become profitable --- and then attract a wider range of investors than a present.
Many PI's will look a the filed accounts of a company and if a said company has recorded a loss, then not for me.

That is my interpretation Mr TT may have a different slant.

On a slightly different note -- please can you not take one sentence out of context !! and concentrate of TPG.

ATB
DAR

Hello AllatSea,
What is the relevance of your comment "nephophobia issues" I couldn't find that word nearest is Nomophobia (as below).

Cheers DAR
Nomophobia is the irrational fear of being without your mobile phone or being unable to use your phone for some reason, such as the absence of a signal or running out of minutes or battery power. A phobia is by definition an irrational fear.

Hi TT, Totally agree with every observation you have made.

With the long term contracts TP's revenue is capable of real organic growth within the existing businesses. If the 20 Mill acquisition fund is spent wisely then this could easily boost the revenue by some 50% or more on todays value.

The sp is currently so low that it could easily treble in the next 3 years or so particularly if it was open to a wider range of investors than at present. It's only my opinion and could be a bit optimistic but the way this company has re-invented itself since the Corac days I think it's a real possibility.

Your last observation ----- As always - time will tell. is the clincher

Cheers DAR

Heel Max,
Fine get a get a time stamp on our last entries, which were Tuesday and yesterday. The relevance of a day to day SP is certainly not relevant to me (can't answer for Mr TT).
All the best DAR

Hi TruroT,
You have made some very valid points and I have looked at your posting of last Thursday regarding IDEA and their dividend. The main difference between TPG and IDEA is IDEA have made a 'small' profit in the past few year, therefore their BOD have deem it is sound policy to attract PI's by paying a dividend. TPG have not made a profit and the BOD deem it prudent not to pay a dividend (I do agree with that policy) and I feel that paying a dividend with out profit is creating future problems.

BTW on today's RNS please can you explain the following "adjusted operating profit and order book". I do hope the TPG are not considering "future profits".
I would not be happy with that situation.

And yes this statement "How on earth our MC is only a third bigger than our revenue with 20 Mill in the bank sure beats the hell out of me kid!"
Baffles me......................
ATB
DAR

I felt that Marlborough's holding was about 1.4% of their fund, so there should have been cause for a RNS. I didn't say I did not like RST but further investment is not on the agenda. Because of situation in BREXIT I have decided not to invest as much as before and I am holding cash until I feel the markets represent good value.
In my opinion there maybe further weakness in many good companies

Hello all,
In my opinion, a maiden dividend is not going to happen until TPG reflect a profit has been achieved (maybe not even then).
Until I retired I was a credit manager and I often used the following - turnover is vanity, profit is sanity and cash flow is reality and cash is king
Cash in the bank is what really matters. It's what pays the bills, gets reinvested to grow the company and gets paid out as dividends. yes, CASH IS KING
Best regards
DAR

Hello Matt,
You are more confidant than I. Whilst I still hold I am marginally concerned that Giles Hargeaves of Marlborough Special Situations has sold his holding in RST. I do not hold Marlborough but tend to keep an eye on their fund.
Therefore any further investment is not on my agenda.
BTW what part of the UK are you in. D

Hello Metamorphsis,
I have just seen your observation on the 31st December "The mere mention of Interserve should set alarm bells ringing".
As far as I am aware there is no connection to Interserve and NMC and therefore has no bearing on NMC.
Completely different companies.
Wishing you a good 2019

Good morning,
Like you I do not know the reason for the substantial movement in share price - the high for the year was on the 20th August and the price was 4376. So a fall in sp by 35% in 4 months is harsh.
The only observation was the accounts filed were not as sparkling as previous.
The company have excellent fundamentals and very good forecasts.
I am going to retain my investment as I sincerely believe in this sector.

Hello Matt,
Charles Skinner has notified the Board of his intention to retire as Chief Executive on 31 March 2019 after 10 years in the role. He will be succeeded by Charles Bligh, who will work alongside Charles Skinner from early March 2019. He will join the Board on 11 March 2019 and assume the role of Chief Executive on 1 April 2019.
As you say this is a shame as Charles Skinner has been at the helm for 10 years. Not sure about Charles Bligh (TalkTalk). Might be a rocky few months...
However Restore are a sound company and a seemingly smooth hand-over period should ensure a recovery in share price.
DAR

Hi Sifaka,
No not a silly question and the short answer is no, as no announcement has been made.
However, based on previous years the answer is as follows.
NMC year end is 31st December and the final accounts were filed on the 7th March 2018
The year ending 31st December 2018 and the final accounts were filed on the 8th March 2017

On that basis I would expect the full year results to be filed during the first 10 days of March 2019. (that is my best guess)

There was a few errors in my posting on Saturday at 14.25
Fact 1 in the last 5 years the turnover has increased by 300%
Fact 2 in the last 5 years the PROFIT margins has increased by 300%
Fact 3 in the past 5 years the SHARE PRICE has increased by 300%
In my defense I has a heavy cold, apart from those details my observations were valid.
Regards

Thank you Choska,
my mistake was understandable, as Max just "C" bit vague

Hello Max,
I would rather not comment on statement made by politicians, I can't trust them to hold any view for a prolonged period.
I put more store in RNS of a particular company - in this instance TPG
Regards
DAR