Member Info for dan222

I would scrap the dividend, then they could do 500m of buybacks each year, and say they will keep doing it while the share price is below £3.

Alternatively they could use the dividend money to pay off debt, once hbr is debt free the share price would surely go up, it wouldn't have to hedge, and it could also pay a potentially very large dividend (dependent on oil price)

If debt is at 5% and dividend at 8% then it does make sense to do buy backs, but I kind of agree with you. I wish they would either go huge on buybacks while the share price is so low, or go huge on paying off debt, the small buybacks seem a bit pointless.

Maybe hbr will itself be subject to a takeover bid. I would have thought that an offer at 3.60 per share would have a decent chance if being accepted, it would probably be a bargain for someone

Gas is looking very good though. 'If' the windfall tax were to be split so that gas and oil are looked at separately, it could be lifted for oil, then things would suddenly look great.

Unlikely, but budget and possible changes to EPL. Other than that it's a case of sit and wait a couple of years.

I wondered why we were down this morning, it's because people have started posting on here again.

I wonder how much total investment in the uk part of the North Sea is for the same period. Couple of billion?

In relation to debt rising, I believe net debt takes into account cash held, so it's not as if Harbour are taking out new loans, net debt is just going up and down based on how much cash they hold at the specific time, but year-on-year it's going down, and they intend to keep reducing it.

UK production is forecast to drop by 50k, so basically the whole drop comes from the UK. Given that all UK profits are taken by the government, I don't think the drop really matters.

Dividend is 455m, cash flow is 1000m

Hedging isn't too brilliant, with gas hedges below current price and oil above. Personally I'd prefer it if harbour de-risked by paying down debt instead of hedging

Looks steady. I like this part, because I expect that by 2028 the oil price will be going parabolic, so it's great that we're risk free until then in relation to debt:

§ €1 billion senior notes repaid in September with all remaining debt maturities to 2028 pre-funded

Natural gas has been quite a bit higher in 2025 than 2024, I wonder if that will help Hbr's results for the year (and the update)?

Sometimes not posting is the best idea.........

November could be an interesting month.

If the trading update is good, oil finds a little improvement to $70, and there is good news on the windfall tax, hbr could easily be above £3 by the end of the month.

On the other hand, if the trading update is poor, oil falls below $60 and the windfall tax is fudged, hbr could be back well below £2 by the end of the month.

So I'm predicting that the share price will barely move and end the month at £2.20. Anyone else want to have a go?

Non doms and oil companies are both leaving the UK. That leaves vat on school fees, which won't be raising very much.

Unfortunately Labour are just as stupid as the Conservatives, the epl isn't going anywhere before the next election, at best it will be eased slightly and given a new name.

How is bringing forward the end by one year a huge improvement? If that's what happens, the impact on the share price will be nil, or may even be negative as it's less than was hoped for

Milei solidly won the mid-terms, which could be very good news for Harbour over the next couple of years.

Over the years I've been reading this board, and those for other shares, you'd have almost invariably have done really well selling when the forum is most optimistic and buying when it's most pessimistic