Member Info for dan222

Share price jumped after wintershall acquisition, and has fallen steadily since. It takes a while for the market to work out whether it's a good deal or not, to be fair no one can really know for a couple of years anyway.

Upcoming 2025 results should give a lot more info about how the wintershall deal has changed harbour, we'll probably have to wait for the 2027 or 2028 results to be able to value this deal properly. It does increase risk though, maybe that's why the share price is falling slightly.

Share price today should be interesting! It won't really have a clue what to do with all the analysts on holiday for Christmas. Almost exactly 2 years to the day since wintershall.

Lower tax rate, higher reserves. Very roughly it should add at least 3 or 400 million a year to cash flow within a couple of years, which is a reasonable return of over 10%.

But I don't really like the valuation of the shares consideration of 2.15, if you consider the shares worth more than that then we've paid more than 3.2 billion.

I believe the tax losses can only be used against corporation tax on the acquired production - so 20,000 boe/day will be taxed at 38% rather than 78% and the rest is still taxed at 78%.

Are we anywhere near the EPL cut off price for gas?

It's very old news, surely. Known about since the wda deal.

It's a great signal that Hbr haven't just given up on the UK, which is encouraging given that it's still a large proportion of their production.

More likely the person dealing with it's on holiday this week.

BofA downgrade is still above the current share price (and they're always wrong anyway). I think it's just a bad day for oil company shares in general.

Nothing. Time to chill for a bit and just let things happen in their own time. Eventually the oil price, and hopefully also harbour, will rise. It may be soon, it may be in a couple of years.

Amazing that, after driving Harbour out of the UK part of the North Sea, the UK will end up buying Argentinian gas from Harbour. Shows how amazingly stupid our politicians are.

If you repay 500m of debt instead of paying out 500m of dividend you don't get the drop in equity from paying the divi, so without the drop every ex divi your equity will be rising.

Think of it this way: every time the dividend is paid equity goes down, we all know that. Then over the next 6 months hbr earns more profit so equity goes up again and another dividend is paid.

If instead of paying the dividend hbr repaid 500 million of debt each year, in theory equity would just keep going up as no dividend is being paid out and debt is being reduced.

Not sure that's right, the equity value is essentially net assets. If debt goes down and all else remains the same, equity goes up.

Using round numbers, harbour is currently valued at 3 billion share capital plus 7 billion debt (I think without looking anything up?) so 10 billion.

Surely if they paid off the debt, the value of the shares would rise by the amount of debt paid, so we'd be looking at around £9 per share.

So why don't they prioritise debt repayment above all else?

He seems quite honest, I thought his trade around the dividend was quite good, the ones since just seem to be random.

You bought yesterday at 207 and sold today at 209? Does that even cover stamp duty?

It's nothing that we didn't already know, harbour have already pivoted away from the UK, I don't really see any issue with commuting the current strategy of focusing investment elsewhere. I certainly don't think it would be a good idea to dump the UK assets cheaply or for nothing - in 4 years time there may be a different government, and things will look very different.

It looks like there is no optimism in the share price that the EPL will be changed in the budget, so hopefully no falls when it doesn't happen.

Then the buyback with dividend money would be even more successful.