Member Info for dan222

They have a 1 billion bridging loan to repay, and also a further 1 billion 3-year loan. Hopefully both will be repaid rather than being rolled over.

Asartana - previously they had a set dividend and that was what we got. Now they have a lower base dividend, and will pay more on top based on circumstances. When debt is high they will prioritise repayments, when the share price is low they will presumably prioritise buybacks. All seems quite sensible, but I don't think it's necessarily a dividend cut, it's a minimum dividend plus whatever else they decide each year.

ThetaDecay, that's all assuming around 65 dollars/barrel. By 2028 oil could be well over double that. This share looks like an amazing long term hold.

I don't think Reeves is standing firm on EPL, it's looking very positive and seems she just needs to find a way to get rid of it while pretending it's not another u-turn. Mind you, if she doesn't do it before the summer she probably won't be chancellor anymore. Hopefully results will be good and then we'll be looking good on all fronts - high oil price, epl on the way out, and a great business in any case.

It's the first full year with Wintershall, so I expect an accounting profit (for the last few years it's been completely wiped out by UK tax). We already know cash flow is 1.1 billion. We also get to hear more about LLOG and the new distributions policy, so it should be interesting. I expect and hope they will prioritise paying down debt this year, and with high oil prices hopefully they will be able to pay off a big chunk quickly. We'll probably get some completely pointless buy backs as well, to waste a hundred billion or so.

The chances of her listening to home truths are zero. Remember this? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/21/rachel-reeves-mansplaining-chancellor-budget

If the industry leaders have anything about them they'll tell Reeves they're all shutting for essential maintenance for the rest of March, but it'll be ok as luckily the government has cut reliance on fossil fuels.

Well nothing in the Spring Statement. Doesn't mean it won't happen at some point, but it doesn't seem like the government's keen to get rid of the windfall tax. No impact on share price, it seems we've been saved by the Iran war.

Harbour's share capital is around 4.2 billion at the moment. I have shares worth approx £100,000 so I own 100000/4200000000. If Harbour is producing 500,000 barrels a day, my personal production is 100000/4200000000x500000, which comes out at 12 barrels per day. Is that maths right? How many barrels do you produce?

2 months into the year it's looking good, but for your cash flow figures to apply oil and gas prices have to stay this high till the end of the year, that's why the share hasn't re-rated (though it has gone up a lot)

The oil is still being produced, I imagine Hormuz will be sorted out pretty quickly then the price will come down again. I think for Harbour, of more long-term interest is any change to EPL tomorrow (unlikely I know) and results later this week.

I don't think they have a choice on hedging, it's probably a condition of all their debt. But ultimately if you're in the oil business because you believe there's profit to be made, hedging is just giving away part of that profit. I definitely wouldn't hedge if there wasn't the debt, and I'd be looking to get the debt down asap in preference to any other form of return to shareholders.

100 dollar oil would actually be a good opportunity to drop the current EPL and introduce the new system.

I think the decision is already made either way if it's going to be in the spring statement, and Iran isn't likely to change anything anyway

I think it's holding up quite well, considering the rise yesterday and that oil is down quite a bit today. Still well over 230, which is pretty much at a 1-year high.

See what results bring next week - they could change everything as it's the first full year with WDA, and we'll also hear more about LLOG.

And there seems to be the possibility in the air again that the EPL could go.

If neither of those two is positive it's just a matter of time before this company's share price flies, it'll happen eventually.

I added a load last summer in the high 230s, which was right at the peak of recent pricing. But I think it's a fair bet that 230-odd will look very cheap at some point - whether that's later this year, or in 5 years' time I don't know.

ValueS - if debt is being paid down then they are getting a distribution (and in a better way than a buyback). I know my position is probably at the extreme end on dividends (I'd stop them in favour of debt repayment) but I think it probably makes sense to more people in relation to buybacks. While debt is high it makes loads more sense to pay off debt rather than doing buybacks, and debt repayment in preference to buybacks would also be more likely to increase the share price. Once debt is at a comfortable level then it may make sense to look at buybacks again (depending on the share price and dividend yield ).

ValueS, yes - I keep saying that repayment of debt is mathematically a return to shareholders just as much as dividends and buybacks are.

I just don't understand the point of buybacks when you've got debt, they don't make any sense unless the dividend yield is particularly high, but that's better dealt with by cutting the dividend.

Pay off all debt, then if you have spare cash you can't find a better use for by all means do buybacks, but not while the company has debt.

All buybacks achieve in a company with debt is to increase risk by reducing the proportion of equity to debt, while also reducing cash available to pay off debts.

PersianTrader, I would say your investment horizon is too short and you're asking the wrong questions. How is it possible to invest at all if you're trying to second-guess the share price in response to specific short-term events? Iran could go either way, in the longer term it doesn't matter, the question is whether Harbour is a sound company with decent long-term prospects.

I think proportionately our debt is just as big as BP's, the difference is they built up their debt on now abandoned net zero projects, whereas Harbour built up debt expending, and the investments should start to bear fruit in the next couple of years.