Member Info for dan222

I'm around 70% Harbour, would happily be 100%, the other things I hold are probably more risky to the downside with less potential upside.

This board has stopped being about harbour and is currently just a place for Trump haters to indulge their hysterics

"the Islamic Republic remains committed to its declared positions. Its position on the Strait of Hormuz has not changed and the passage will remain closed to the aggressors attacking Iran"

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This indicates that once Trump decides the bombing of Iran stops, Hormuz will reopen. Looks like that will probably be next week.

Was always going to be the way it ends (and it's entirely in line with what they originally said - 4weeks) - do you really believe they want WW3?

ThetaDecay - absolutely, it's a nonsensical argument that the North Sea is depleted and environmentally destructive on the UK side of the line, but on the Norwegian side there's plenty and it's environmentally friendly. That a lot of our media and politicians are trying to make this argument just shows how we've been completely taken over either by corrupt individuals who are deliberately ensuring the UK's decline and probable bankruptcy, or we are just a country which produces a lot of incredibly thick people and promotes them to positions of power and influence.

Sekforde, I think you're optimistic in your numbers but I agree that Harbour could be throwing off enormous amounts of cash if prices remain high, and if they don't I think it's going to be throwing off enormous amounts of cash within a few years anyway. There are plenty of other positives too (lifting of EPL at some point, possible US listing, Mexico, Argentina, LLOG). So I'm staying fully invested, I'd rather sit through a few periods where the share price is lower than risk missing out altogether.

Bonker: I sold my ISA holding on IG before close yesterday but left my SIPP holdings with HL in place with a 315p stop in place which in-a-totally-random-twist-of-fate it would appear have fired at close to £3 (I'm guessing cos I can't see fk-all), much to someone's benefit no doubt ...

I'll 100% be moving my SIPPs to IG after this - HL have fkd me off too many times and they're expensive to be with re trade costs etc.

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Haven't you spent the last few weeks telling us this will be at £3.70/£4 etc in no time? Why sell at 3.15 then?

It could be whoever bought last week taking profit

Doesn't the value of Harbour include debt? I don't know whether it's called market cap or what the term is (in fact I'm not even sure whether I'm mixing GBP and USD), but surely the current value of Harbour is 4.5billion shares plus 7 billion debt, so 11.5 billion? The overall valuation is still low, but the debt is a big factor in why the equity value is so low.

A7174anlaby - the sale has concluded, we've had the RNS

Stupmy, it's an off-market sale so it doesn't impact the open market price at all (other than psychologically), unless the shares have been bought by a trader who saw an opportunity and is now selling into the open market at anything above the price they bought at.

Bonker, if I had any spare cash I'd join you. Crazy price considering Hbr was £2.40 last summer. £2.60 will be long gone by the end of the day.

Astara, I guess so. I would prefer they pay down debt, and they would probably waste some of the cash on buybacks, but there could be a large dividend. Based on their published figures 80 dollars oil (over the whole year) and a similar increase in gas prices would result in cash flow around 2 billion

Harbour still seems massively undervalued, even if the Iran situation is cleared up pretty quick. If the oil price stays around 80 for the next 6 months, Harbour could be looking at approaching 2 billion cash flow for the year. On the other hand, if the oil price heads back down towards 60 hopefully we would see the EPL lifted, which would support the share price.

Well, oil is now below 90. Looks like it might all be over even quicker than anyone thought - it does make sense that the US have probably run out of decent targets, so there's not much point stretching things out indefinitely. Iran won't want to fight if they don't have to.

I would think cash flow of 3 or 4 billion is very possible in a few years time - at a decent oil price the old portfolio should generate well over 1 billion/year when the EPL goes, LLOG could easily be generating 1 billion a year by itself once production doubles, then there's Argentina and Mexico to kick in as well over the next few years.

In harbours case we'd do great from a spike lasting just a few months. Imagine if they manage to pay off 2 billion of debt this year, that would definitely help the share price.

Sittingduck, I hope you're right because I'm heavily invested here. Nobody knows what will happen, but I think pretty much back to normal within a month is definitely the most likely scenario. We'll see! Harbour have a bright future in any case.

Sittingduck, I don't think so - Iran's storage has been blown up, but not their production. I imagine damage in other countries caused by Iran is fairly light.

The US will declare victory in a couple of weeks, the Straits will open up again, and everything will pretty much return to normal, though hopefully the oil price will stay around $70 - $80 rather than $60.

Could we see the fabled £3.60 this week? We were at £3.20 about 18 months ago and are looking in a far better position now than we were then.