Member Info for dan222

If we're really lucky we'll buy out BASF at this share price while the oil and gas prices will stay low enough for the windfall tax to be removed, and in just over 6 months time the share will be worth about £10.

Hopefully they can buy out BASF at current prices, but otherwise it makes sense to buy as many shares as possible on the market while price is this low.

Anyone any Thoughts on an 'Off the Books buyback ' ?

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I can give you my thoughts, they're pure speculation though from someone who knows nothing.

I think it would be great if Hbr could get a buyback at any price under £3.60. At the current share price they're paying dividends at 10% and borrowing at 6%, so it would make sense if they could buy back anywhere near the current price. Even at £3.60 it would probably be good business - it would cost around £2billion to get back 40% of the company, if they can do that with long-term borrowing I think they should, because I think the long-term value of Hbr is more than that.

Wasn't there a 6 month lock-in until some organisation could start selling their shares? The acquisition was finalised on 3 September, so 6 months was last week (when the share price dropped). Could this have something to do with it?

The BASF Buy backs mystifies me. They mentioned the possibility but I don't understand why BASF would ever do that at less than the notional £3.60. Help Please ??

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I guess the 40% held by BASF makes HBR vulnerable to a takeover, which may be why they want authorisation to buy them back - if someone comes bidding HBR can bid too, I don't think they'd be sold at anything near the current share price.

On the positive side, the Argentina business sounds very promising

In Capital Markets RNS, FCF outlook is now revised to ~2-4B!

What is going on? Did they make a mistake on the previous numbers?

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I think they're predicting 3 years cash flow, so approx 1bn a year, but making predictions 3 years out is a bit pointless anyway. I'm hoping in 3 years time the oil price will be a lot higher than it is now, so cash flow could be huge by then.

What worries me for now is the debt, and I also don't like the carbon capture business, it seems like something that's just based on politics with no practical benefits, and when the politics changes there won't be any way to make money from it.

So thanks to successive oil industry destoying governments, we have to pay 78% tax on non-existent 'windfall' profits for six months even if oil prices were to stay where they are now?

Are there no emergency measures in the small print, or is all this part of their renewables wet dream?

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It's not really a tax, it's just theft. Of course there are no emergency measures, they only introduced the profit floor on the assumption that it will never be met.

Closest I can get is continued buying of Occidental in this video. Buffet from around 5min 40 and Occidental 3.49% add to Berkshire (6 min 54seconds).

Sorry again, really didn't intend to mislead.

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No worries, it's easily done, know-nothings like me will see their chance to look knowledgeable and pick you up on it!

SittingD, not as related as your comment, but Buffet is about 50-60% down on his Occid Petr investment and he's still buying, even when he's reducing in many areas.

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He can't be down 50% unless he only ever bought at the very brief peak. If you look at the share chart he's very likely up quite a lot.

I don't really get the big deal about an improved credit rating - far better to have no debt and not need credit than to have $4billion of debt and a good credit rating.

I can't see it making much sense for Harbour to sell their UK assets unless they're running at a significant loss. It's not like anyone will pay much for the assets at the moment. Even if all profits are taxed, just keep things ticking over and wait - if we get a Reform govt in 2029 the the tax rules will change.

I don't think the end of the Ukraine war will make much difference, as Russia has been supplying oil to India and China all along. Maybe a short-term dip, but amount supplied will remain the same - Russia is part of Opec + isn't it, and has been producing according to its quota.

To clarify my previous post, 6 billion revenue might be about right for 2024, but in 2025 I'd expect it to be significantly higher with a full year's contribution from Wintershall. So we still need to know where all the cash is going in 2025 if cash flow is only going to be 1 billion - it might well be repayment of debt (or if the share price stays low, I guess they could do some mega buybacks).

@MR1234 I believe 6 mscf is equivalent to 1 barrel, so they'll be getting $78/barrel for the gas. If we take 78 x 475,000 x 365 revenue should be £13.5 billion.

Another way of looking at it is if we take 2023 revenue of 3.7 billion, and assume that is 40% of 2025 revenue, then revenue should be over 9 billion.

Either way, 6 billion for 2025 looks very low.

Hopefully it'll go back up next week, who knows. Down on the week, but up on the month, as you say. I'm happy to hold for the dividends on the basis that it seems a well-run company that will come good at some point, so it doesn't make much odds if the price today is £2.50 or £3.50. If I had spare cash I'd probably buy some more.

Does anyone know if free cash flow is before or after tax and dividends? I assume after tax but before dividends?

Weren't we doing $1billion a year free cash flow a couple of years ago, but with a lot less shares in issue and no debt? I know we've reduced our exposure to the UK, but if the result of the Wintershall acquisition is $1billion free cash flow it seems a bit underwhelming.

Correction - the protection racket is Sunak, Hunt, Starmer and Reeves. This started under the last government, the current government have made a very small adjustment but are basically just continuing Tory policy. Let's not forget.

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