Member Info for dan222

Sekforde, why do you think capex will be down? Don't we have some very big investment decisions coming up in Mexico and Argentina?

What makes you say its very likely the windfall tax will be changed? (not scrapped, it's not going back to what it was). I would still say it's very unlikely there's any change coming, I just don't think we have a government with any common sense, the last lot were just as bad of course.

I'd only be selling here if I was a short-term trader and had bought for less. Otherwise I can't see the point in trying to trade and snatch a few percent at these prices. Eventually there'll be a big rise, and you risk missing it - the current price seems to me to be a buy rather than a sell.

We need hbr at around £2.40 to make up what's been lost since the dividend. Back towards £3 would be nice, if oil can go on a good run.

I don't really understand why everyone keeps saying the hedging is brilliant. It is what it is - in times the oil price falls, it's positive, when the oil price rises it's negative. Personally I would prefer it if Harbour were completely unhedged and instead reduced risk by keeping debt very low.

Could turn out amazingly well for Harbour - 6 months to a year of low prices, EPL is removed, then prices rocket from 2027 onwards. When you take inflation into account it's very easy to see prices well above $100/barrel. Meanwhile Mexico and Argentina are still progressing.

What are the prices that trigger the lower tax rate? I believe both gas and oil have to be below a certain level for 6 months then the windfall tax doesn't apply to that period. I don't think we're there yet, it's some stupidly low price.

Natural gas is about 40% up on this time last year, Brent is about 14% down.

Hbr's next set of results could be better than expected (and will be very interesting in any case, as the first full year incorporating WDA)

Agreed, the only real risk (barring a disaster) is debt, and even though it's a relatively low risk for HBR it would still be good to see them reducing it and keeping it low.

I haven't looked into it at all, so I don't actually know, but my impression is that when the tax rate increases Harbour's future tax commitments increase, and for some reason these are accrued in the year of the increase - that's why Harbour recognised a huge tax bill when the windfall tax was introduced, and again when labour increased it, I don't think they are actually paying out more than 100% of profit in tax, if they were then obviously the only sensible thing to do would be to close the business. If anyone knows what's actually going on with tax I'd be interested as well.

To be fair the Tesco analogy can be taken a bit further - similar to Harbour, Tesco do sell their produce and have to replenish it constantly. Harbour reducing UK production is more like Tesco saying they're not going to bother selling those items which don't make any profit, and focus instead on their more profitable lines.

The windfall tax is long since priced in, so no reason why it should have anything to do with current share price weakness, which is probably just based on oil shares not being particularly fashionable at the moment (and the constant losses, which I believe are just a result of accruals for future tax costs).

It's not just tax take between now and the election that matters, the longer term forecasts impact how much the govt can borrow now, so the decline in future oil revenue due to the windfall tax may become relevant now

I don't think they can buy back much without BASF agreeing to sell some of their shares, otherwise they will turn BASF into the majority shareholder.

In relation to cash flow, in the long run it only comes from either accounting profit or increasing debt, so it definitely matters if we keep showing accounting losses.

And on hedging, I really hope the poster who keeps saying we are shielded from downside is wrong, as that would also mean we can't benefit from any increase in oil and gas prices

What business is going to apply for new North Sea licences if all the profit goes to the government?

I would imagine BASF might well have changed their minds about exiting, particularly at the current share price, as the political winds have changed significantly since they said they were going to exit oil and gas, it's now becoming far more politically acceptable to stay (and particularly not to get out at a loss). It would be great for HBR if they do sell, but I wouldn't rely on it.

If the share price goes down and the shares are bought back at a lower price it's great in theory, but at around this price they should do far bigger buybacks - I'd be very happy if they could buy back 50% of the company at this price, but £100m here and there seems a bit pointless and might have more psychological impact if it's used to reduce debt.

Has anyone looked closely at our debt? I know we're fine for the next couple of years, but what would happen if there was a sustained fall in the oil price along with high interest rates? Would Hbr be in any danger?

Surely any buybacks under £2.50 are amazing value, it doesn't really matter what the share price does in the short term. I think they should be chucking a lot more at buybacks at the moment (hopefully they will with the private buyout).

"Problem is… it would take time for new investment to generate significant taxable profits, especially at predicted oil prices, and probably not before the next General Election..."

Doesn't matter - if it increases future revenue projections it will allow Labour to borrow and spend more now. That's all they care about (and all the last govt cared about too), so whenever the OBR projections show more money to be made from scrapping the windfall tax is when it'll go.

Interesting Telegraph article: https://www.telegraph.co.uk./business/2025/08/10/bp-defies-miliband-to-reopen-north-sea-oil-field/

Seems positive for Harbour's strategy, which is broadly the same as BP are doing here: "The energy giant is reviving the Murlach field, which was declared uneconomic and taken out of use in 2004, has now become viable partly due to new technologies." but it seems strange that both BP and Shell are investing in the UK North Sea and don't seem to have been put off by the windfall tax, is it not as bad as we keep being told?