Member Info for Daisan

You have been around Timeless for too long. It is rubbing off on you. I only ever have arguments with people who deliberately seek to mislead such as Timeless and you. If I make a mistake I hold my hand up to it and seek to correct it. However you seek to justify your behaviour with regards to the last update, it was still shameful. Goodbye.

Bankside, Thanks for that! It is really useful to hear the background. My thoughts are somewhat simpler. I believe that the existence of a JORC compliant gold resource (with most in the measured and indicated categories) is not disputed and the price of gold looks like it is breaking out. If the incumbents are not capable of taking this forwards, somebody will be and will pay a comparatively (to the market cap.) large amount to do so. This is why I want them to stop spending money on further development and just look for a buyer. The money is in the asset. We are coming to the right time to realise it.

For clarification, my statement relates to the fact that the currently outstanding hedge (April - September) amounts to just over a third of the annualised production. Apologies for any misunderstanding that this may have caused. If this is not the case then I have misunderstood the current situation. But at least I haven't said 'its all very good' to someone who can't see the update just at the point I am selling, have I? That would have been a shameful act beneath contempt wouldn't it?

OSU sitting on a market capitalisation of £3m with as much as that in cash and the distinct potential of having £10m with a gold asset thrown in for nothing whilst GGP sits on the same market capitalisation having.... precisely nothing other than a new director who has a dubious track record of such engagements (ECR anyone?). You really couldn't make it up.

You may be right. As I said it is difficult to judge as we haven't seen the figures for some time.

Looks like a real battle going on around $1260!

Agree! Good to get a different opinion. I would point out that GKP are operating in an environment where their product has collapsed in price whereas SHG are operating in an environment where their product is rising in price. Only a third of production is hedged so they should see a great deal of the benefit associated with a rising gold price whilst being to some extent protected should the gold price fall away.

Hard to be exact carvegyber. It depends on whether they embark on any more significant expenditure. If they don't then it should last a year I believe. Given that it has been a while since we last saw the cash balance and the rate of burn, it is difficult to be precise however.

I will answer you Dibs despite the abuse you tend to dish out and your shameful behaviour on SHG. Not sure the strategy has changed at all but when you can't come to a reasonable agreement with the company you were targeting you have to move on. It is clear that CGH were not happy with the results of the DFS and hence wanted it reworked. I don't blame them to be honest as it is obviously a world class deposit. The suggestion is, and I am not in a position to know the realities, that the study was not reflective of the underlying asset value. At this point CGH need to look beyond the company they were hoping would buy/JV the project and open it up for other parties. Inevitably this is resulting in the target buyer unloading their shares (this is a logical conclusion but not one which I have any proof of currently) causing the share price to weaken. Personally, I think in a rising gold price environment they shouldn't have issues funding development or selling the project. Of course, that requires the market to be convinced about a rising gold price. As for cash, now that they have a DFS that probably is closer to reflecting the value (I think it is still conservative compared to other projects), they should hold fire on further expenditure and preserve their cash which should be enough to survive for at least a year unless they embark on any further activity (they should not). It is a waiting game at this stage.

Interesting. I look for exactly the opposite I confess. In a rising gold price environment (if you are confident in the long term direction) companies with large debt are exactly what I look for as they are the ones most highly geared to the rise in the price. In this situation I would much prefer significant debt to significant equity. The debt here is not threatening survival of the company so I am staying put. Nothing wrong with Pan American of course, although if gold does go down in the short term, silver will go down harder and silver miners will be hit. At the moment silver looks pretty strong however.

ArielArrow, Believe me, I have been in other companies where that is not the case! Selling is always the most difficult part of the equation.

Beginning to come in now. Not saying this won't go down further but at some point the value becomes a screaming buy and the trades will come pouring in. As significant as China Nonferrous (if it is them) stake is, eventually it will be gone and this will have real momentum on the upside. Just need to find the bottom first!

Not if the price of gold begins to take off. The last time that happened money was being thrown at the gold sector like it was going out of fashion. CGH unlikely to be ignored in that scenario given that this is an asset of sufficient size and grade to attract some serious buyers.

Possibly. It will be interesting to see at what point the balance between sellers and buyers results in the halt. At the moment I suspect that buyers are looking at this and thinking that the active seller is going to drive the price down further. However, at some point the value will become so obvious that people will start jumping in. Unfortunately my buy this morning seems poorly timed in the short term. As I expect the sale of the asset to be upwards of £50m or some form of funding to cause the price to climb rapidly, I am not too fussed (fussed yes, but not too fussed). At some point I will buy more and put it away for the inevitable climb on the back of the long term gold price.

Agreed. Chinese companies tend to be very 'savvy' with their investments. They like to get things as cheap as possible (who can blame them). I repeat that if the gold price does start rocketing (and we are nothing like things were a few years ago) then there will be no shortage of funds or buyers for this project.

On virtually no volume. Start of a trend or false dawn?

The $1260 area is key resistance and it has bashed away at it for the last few days/weeks. It seems to have retreated again somewhat but I suspect it to have another go. If it gets through it then 1280 and 1300 are key. I would expect a pull back at some point to the 1180 area (and if that happens there are suggestions from technical analysts that it could either soar or go below $1000!) but who knows. More interestingly is that gold is up currently while the USD is having a bit of a relief rally. If the relief rally turns into something stronger then gold may well struggle. Other interesting points are silver's strength (this can be indicative of a top but there is no denying its momentum and volatility at the moment) and the fact that gold has behaved markedly differently in the last couple of days as a result of China starting to fix the price. Gold and US gold stocks closed weak last night after a good run so I will be keeping an eye on how that opens this afternoon. Really difficult to call how things are going to go at the moment which must make life difficult for traders.

Irrespective of Dibs actions on SHG, it is difficult to say that he is not correct in this instance. The lack of sign off is disappointing from a short term perspective and it may be that the selling seen recently is China Nonferrous reducing or eliminating their stake as a result. Somewhat oddly to be honest, considering that Chinese gold miners have said that they are looking to buy gold properties overseas including North America and it is difficult to imagine that they will find many with FS that are conformant to Chinese standards. This is akin to cutting off your nose to spite your face. I say 'short term' because I believe that in the long term this will not have a significant impact. Irrespective of whether gold corrects in the short term, I believe that in the long term it will be significantly higher. Given what happened in the last gold upswing (i.e. capital for most projects in the financial crisis was non-existent but for gold projects you could virtually name your terms), there will be no lack of interest in a project the size of CGH's.

Dibs, Your actions on SGH show you aren't to be trusted. Go away

That is exceptional. More than meets what you could hope for and effectively doubles the value of the asset. I have bought a few this morning. Given the low profile of the company it may be some time before the value is realised but it will come.