Member Info for Daisan

According to the placing RNS: "Following the issue of the Placing Shares, and for the purposes of the Disclosure and Transparency Rules, the Company's total issued share capital on Admission will consist of 11,013,537 Ordinary Shares." SO, I make the market cap. just over £3.6m rather than £1m.

If MTR bought all of those shares in the market, where are the trades? There was virtually nothing yesterday. And the share price hasn't exactly been flying with those trades which suggests that there was opposing selling pressure. Sometimes the markets are a little opaque!

At last. Considering the fact that AAZ should react the best to the gold price rise, this has been relatively lacking but now it appears to have picked up speed. If the gold price remains strong then it is likely to keep on going as people become more accepting that this will not only survive but thrive. Gold needs to break 1305 for this to go completely ballistic! On the radar of more people now however, so this should have some legs.

Good grief. Enough of the innuendo please!

Volumes have historically been about 50% higher on TSX than on AIM but that was before things went nuts on AIM of course. I don't make share price predictions but we are currently trading at less than 30% projected current assets if the deal goes through.

I'd be a little bit cautious with short term predictions. In the short term gold is going to suffer some headwinds. If you look at the price of gold this year it has largely been dictated by the US dollar, particularly against the Yen. Gold is currently at strong resistance and the dollar at strong support. At the moment it looks like the dollar may well bounce strongly from here which will put a lot of pressure on the price of gold. Technical analysts are divided on this as to whether gold will retrace from here or push on through. A retrace could be as low as the December lows in which case the price of AAZ will be pressured as well. In the long term the price of gold looks well placed to soar and, as I said in a previous post, AAZ is likely the greatest beneficiary of this on AIM as most of the Enterprise Value is in debt. So, from my perspective I think it unlikely though possible that AAZ will hit the levels suggested within the next three months but I believe that it will go much higher than 55p on a 2-3 year time scale but the price of gold will go much higher than $1200. I don't agree that $1200 is good enough to see AAZ to 55p but it certainly has a positive effect on profitability.

N902, The drop is certainly due to the delisting on AIM as some people do not want the uncertainty of trading on another platform. But the shares can still be traded on the TSX and can remain within an ISA. It is true that some may have to change brokers if theirs do not access the TSX market. Mine does and it is almost business as usual.

Dyor70, They will still be listed on the TSX just not on AIM

People taking profits. AIM is not populated by investors but rather speculators. They largely invest on momentum and sell out when they have achieved a level of profit. There is no assessment of fundamentals. Buy, sell, move onto the next one. MTR makes it easy for them as there is a whole community just drifting from one 'investment' to the next with cheerleaders ramping all the way on here and, mainly, on Twitter. I suspect a lot of people will be left with shares in MTR 'investments' long after MTR have moved on.

The interest rate is reflective of the fact that the bond holders held all the cards. Shanta wanted to get the debt rescheduled and the bond holders didn't need to. Ergo they had the management over a barrel and took full advantage. As I said earlier, the day was disappointing. Of course the gold price, if it rises, will be beneficial for Shanta. They are not fully hedged and any future hedging will be done at a higher level if the gold price rises. One of the problems with hedging is that, if the gold price rises greatly, you do not immediately benefit from it. But if the price remains strong you will of course start to benefit from it on future hedges. To suggest the gold price will not affect Shanta is, of course, incorrect. The benefit from Shanta's point of view is that it makes the income very predictable and, given their commitments, predictability is currently worth a lot. As their capital programme winds down I expect their hedging operations to decrease.

PJs cheerleader has arrived!

OK, after the initial shock of the placing I can see that this is a reasonable (if not particularly welcome!) option and with the improved performance of the company it seems like the are in a good position to progress with the asset development. I think they could probably have got the placing off at a higher price but, given where this was just a few months ago, it could have been a lot worse and certainly would have been if they had left it to the last moment.

The terms of the placing and restructuring of the convertibles can only be described as disappointing. I suppose it is good that they have got it out of the way early so that they are not forced into a heavily discounted placing nearer the time (you see that all the time on AIM) but a discount of over 10% on the current share price when gold miners are coming back into fashion is tough. The investments being made are all good for the long term business (the AISC are/will be extremely low) but the shareholders are currently the ones taking the hit. Short term pain for long term gain. But we are where we are and have to take the positives from it - the debt situation is a lot less onerous (personally I still thought that it was manageable) so should no longer be a consideration in the share price. It goes from being a case of 'probably will survive' to 'will survive' now and the discount applied to the shares on the basis of this should reduce. Of course, on the flip side we have $10m of shares placed at 6.5p!

Well done Dibs? The person who actively promoted the last RNS as all good whilst selling?

Woolfee, I haven't read previous comments but this was covered in a great deal of detail when the deal was first announced. 5p a share is pretty much what they would have in cash should the deal go through. The news today makes that more likely but does not make this valued at 5p. I believe a discount should still be applied for uncertainty and the fact that they have not said what they are going to do with the cash! I think 3.5p is fair value as the deal becomes more and more likely. If they can get another asset on the cheap, rather than lie on the beach and pay themselves for a few years, then we may see some additional movemement.

Of course it de-risks it. Not completely obviously but it makes it more likely. How much, the market will decide.

Fundamentalanalysis, I wasn't calling you a tool - it is just a saying. But your original comment was at best ill informed. You didn't understand why the rise based on $100k and anyone would agree with that in isolation. But the $100k implies that the whole sale is derisked and, hence, a higher value should be put on its likely completion. Apologies for any offence.

That the sale has been de-risked somewhat and the market reaction has been positive accordingly. Will be interesting to see whether this can be sustained although I suspect the usual short term traders. People don't seem to realise that it is actually not that difficult to trade international shares these days and these will still be valid in an ISA.

I don't think he is deramping unfortunately. Just not the sharpest tool in the box.

Yes. We seem to be at a bit of a critical point here with gold either powering ahead if it can break 1300-1305 ish or correcting if it can't. Technical analysts are all over the shop with some calling for 1400+++ if 1300 breaks and some calling for sub-1000 if it doesn't. If the latter is the case then you don't want to be anywhere near gold miners. If the former then gold miners will be the place to be! The one area that they do agree is the long term direction. Up. Which, if you are a contrarian investor is also a worrying sign!