Member Info for Daisan

Probably something to do with the fact that AAZ is a gold miner with silver and copper credits.

Under BBSN. Price up 20% today!

Of the company's shares traded! Incredible for a company like CON

OK Timeless. You caught me not logged in so I saw your posts and they seem inoffensive! Slightly taken aback about that but there you go. CON are just embarking on this gold exploration. Their history has been largely based on lead/zinc exploration near very large existing operations so you would have thought that they had a chance, etc. As usual, they couldn't get the funding and the shares drifted and drifted. But I liked the company and the story which is why I stayed with them and even bought more on the way down. Obviously MTR have contributed to the latest fund raising and it will be good to see what they can find. The initial gold results were hardly stellar but then again they quite often aren't. I think investors in MTR may think that the Botswana first drill results are normal. Having invested in miners for many years I can assure them that they are far from it! The good thing about CON's results were that they hit mineralisation in reasonable amounts at all which gives some hopes that Dalradian's deposit, which has very commercial grades, may be repeated here. 'Some hope' being the operative phrase. This is very far from being a discovery but they deserve the opportunity to drill it which the latest fund raising and MTR have enabled. I believe that gold is the right metal to be involved with at the moment or at least will be for the next few years as I expect a sharp correction near term. When gold is in a bull market any company involved in gold will get bid up enormously as gold bull markets don't happen that often. I recall in the 2010-11 timeframe that even having the word 'gold' in the name was enough to attract buyers galore! By the way Timeless, we do/did also share Orsu as a common shareholding. Ludicrously undervalued but requires that trigger still.

This move in gold still doesn't feel that convincing. The fact that it has largely been driven by the USDJPY rate which has been driven by hedge funds unravelling their dubious antics of borrowing in JPY and buying dollars and that this has resulted in speculative investment in gold by, yep, you guessed it, hedge funds suggests that there isn't sufficient backing to the move. The enormous long position by the speculators is a great cause for concern as these guys buy on margin. As a result, if the market turns against them they will have to liquidate their positions very quickly which could cause an implosion in the gold price. Conversely, if the gold price rise widens the interest and attracts sufficient retail investment demand then you could see that rarest of things - the commercials closing short positions. If this happens then the gold price will literally explode higher. With the COT report indicating that gold is either going to race higher or collapse, we live in interesting times! At the moment I am hedging my bets but have started to move some money towards a gold price collapse down to the $1000/oz level based on the reasoning above. Hedge funds are invariably (although not always) on the wrong end of these kind of trades and I am not yet convinced that the COT report at such extreme levels can be ignored. I still believe in the long term story for gold but short to medium term I am hedging.

Can't be just because somebody likes the new name!

Gold has held up well but looks like the retail sales report in the US has come out strong at first glance. USD jumped and gold pulled back sharply. Don't know yet whether these are just going to be temporary movements or whether the drop in gold just attracts buying.

Degsy, Listened to the interview. The 15-20m oz was for CGNR I believe.

Sorry to hear of your health problems Dibs. I know we have clashed on here (and you probably still have me filtered!) but I wouldn't wish hospitals on anyone!

Given the huge cash position, you would have thought that this would ultimately surge on any news of buying an asset. But what is making this really interesting now is that PolyMetal are moving ever closer to £8/share. Ignoring the cash, that means buying Ovoca is effectively like buying PolyMetal for a 40% discount. This is fast becoming one of those bizarre situations (like Orsu for example) where you know that something has to give but you wonder whether your money is going to be stuck forever waiting for the trigger that will finally release the value. I have a small number of these as I felt that the value would soon be released. But that was years ago now! Will we still be sitting here in a few years wondering 'will it, won't it'?

No problem NicotineNelly and thank you. I am sure SHG will come good as well but the discounted placing was a bit of a shock. But if it means ultimately that more people will be attracted to the company as a result of derisking it somewhat then so be it. I think in the coming months/years that both AAZ and SHG will be paying down significant amounts of debt and this should be further reflected in the market capitalisations of both.

Interesting thought. So you are expecting the money, or at least part of it, from tax havens to flow into gold? I confess that had never occurred to me but you may be right. When gold rises with the USD (in particular the USDJPY) then it really will be game on.

Korg, Q1 information. I believe that Q2 is coming in slightly weaker. It is also a bit concerning that there seems to be a lot of speculative investment here (e.g. hedge funds). Hedge funds tend to get it wrong (if you look at most of the industry they tend to under perform benchmarks) and, more significantly, leverage their investments so any movement against them results in them unwinding their positions rapidly, causing an even greater movement. As you know, I am looking for gold to soften in the short/medium term before rising strongly in the long term because of this speculative froth in the gold market and the fact that the gold rise has been inverse to the USD/JPY rate which has now reached support and looks like it might bounce, pressuring gold. Still decided to take a stake in here (glad I did) and SHG (not so glad) as insurance should this be a misreading of the market!

Banter, I believe that you are quoting cash costs rather than AISC. When I was investing in miners around the time of the last crisis nobody mentioned AISC, it was all about cash costs. But most miners produce AISC numbers now. I think that your numbers are a little low for cash costs even at full production. Nicotine, AAZ are a bit aloof with their numbers and it takes some effort even to work out the cash costs on a quarterly basis let alone the AISC numbers. But despite the poor Q1 numbers they still managed to pay down some debt so the numbers for Q2 should be very significantly better given the probability of increased production (it would be shocking if this wasn't the case) and a sustained higher gold price. Apologies for the vagueness of the information. I just don't have the figures to hand currently and you are right to be critical of the way in which the company highlights figures that are pretty much standard within the industry now.

I notice that Zak 'shares only rise' Mir has covered AAZ on his podcast today.

Not surprising that volume is low considering the number of posts on this board. When a company's share price rises 60% in just over a day you would expect there to be a lot more chatter! I am sure that if it jumps or rises 25% for several days, there will be a lot more chatter.

Conroy's asset is definitely interesting. However, for gold companies I can't recall majors getting involved until a significant resource has been proven up (base metals they can get involved earlier). By 'significant' I mean at least 3m oz but more like 5m+ oz. They also like simple geologies - consistent grade bulk ore bodies, particularly open pit. I am sure that there must be examples where a major has bought in earlier but I can't think of one off the top of my head. Anybody know?

HiroshimaTwinkie, Do lots of research on gold bull markets tonight. It might change your life. :-)

Indeed. Now just to whet your appetite, try the same calculations but with gold at $2000/oz. And $3000/oz. Sounds ridiculous but gold bull markets tend to go ballistic.

One way of looking at it. You would normally hope that a placing adds more value than the dilution but on AIM it usually just goes to keep the leadership team in the style to which they have become accustomed. In the case of CGNR you have to say it has been a bit of a passion for the powers that be so I think in this case they might feel they are using the cash productively.