Member Info for Daisan

I didn't realise that you were prone to hyperbole Korg. :-) Gold up about 0.6% as far as I can see and the market is being appropriately selective. Gold producers seem to be benefiting whilst explorers are pretty muted at the moment. Still not quite in the runaway bullish mode we saw in 2009-11. AAZ looks to be the most in favour currently.

Or at least my feed said that 6.25p had been paid! It is now saying that 6.12p is the high of the day so I am not sure what happened there.

And 6.25p paid. Now that the rather botched fund raising is out of the way, it might be time for the share price to reflect the fundamentals here. Next hedging programme should be at a significantly higher gold price which will very materially reflect cash generation. Once people realise that the debt is very much serviceable (much more so now) then the share price should begin to react positively. Of course there are the normal risks associated with miners (execution, political and commodity price) but this is true for any miner.

If you look through DIbs posts on SHG he has openly said that he will look to buy in at 4-4.5p.

Going to be a money printing machine in a rising gold environment.

Hereandnow, They indicated that the open offer was to enable existing shareholders the opportunity to participate at the same price as the fundraising and they did not need the additional funds. This has fallen way too far in a gold bull market.

Ouch! Really? They do have a reputation for always being wrong..... publicly. The general perception is that they generally state exactly the opposite of what they are actually doing because they are so often wrong. Of course, that is probably just the Zerohedge followers' perception.

Having said that, the miners in the US went absolutely ballistic with GDX up 11% which, hopefully, bodes well for AAZ and other goldies. Will be interesting if this is sustained. Recent history of momentum has suggested that it might be but US gold miners look a bit stretched.

Visitor, Dibs has made it clear that he wants to buy back in around 4-4.5p so he has been talking it down as much as possible since. He knows that he is taking a one sided view. You are, of course, right that the hedge will rise in price as the gold price rise. But as gold miners tend to be valued ultimately by a combination of factors, including gold in the ground, the fixation with the current hedging programme (a prudent thing given the debt) is only one side of the argument, although one that should obviously be considered.

Yep. US jobs figures were appalling, USD dropped by 1.5% and gold popped. USD now back just above key support area (93-94) so should be interesting whether this area holds again. Expected more from gold to be honest. It seems to have flat lined at about $1240/oz whereas I thought that there would likely be waves of follow through buying given the fact that an interest rate rise has got to be extremely unlikely in June. Then again, a $30 rise in a couple of minutes has to be digested I suppose!

Jolly, The gold price was fixed for most of that period. It was only when the US gold fix ended in 1971 that it was allowed to float. Gold bull markets occur in times of crisis and rarely. When they do occur it is as a result of investors seeking a safe haven and prices soar. Gold miners, as geared plays to the gold price, soar even more.

Interesting position. I have to confess I am completely on the other side currently. Gold goes through bull/bear markets and those markets tend to be extreme as they are quite rare. Not sure what will change to stop this and I am not sure why you think that the last 50/100 years suggest that the golden era is over. To me there are several things that suggest your view is not the case: 1. Central banks, particularly those of emerging economies, have been buying gold heavily over the last few years so they clearly believe that there is value to be had 2. Despite what gold bugs would suggest, or those that take everything posted on Zerohedge as gospel, the FED's credibility has been at the highest level for decades and the price of gold has gone up and down in that time. If anything, the FED's credibility is likely to decrease from such lofty levels which can only be beneficial to gold 3. The USD based in gold terms has lost an enormous amount of its value since the gold standard was abandoned and it is difficult to see that this will suddenly reverse in the coming years 4. There is one industry that requires gold - jewellery. If your view is correct then goldies would indeed be wiped out. All of them. Where would the gold for jewellery come from? As such, there needs to be at least a (significant) core of producers which will require at least a level of gold price above $500 I believe. Gold's usefulness is that it is pretty much useless! As such it does not get consumed which is why it has acted as a currency for many years. At some stage it may be that gold's usefulness as a currency is negated, with suggestions that Bitcoin or something like it may be that thing. If so, this is a very long term possibility and I remain sceptical. In the meantime gold is the thing that people keep on returning to in times of crisis, fuelling future bull/bear markets. I believe that we are entering a new, potentially spectacular bull market but I also believe that there is a strong possibility that gold could see $1000/oz or even below before we go higher.

The article seems to be getting a bit too upset over a relatively minor matter. I would rather focus on the future performance of the company to be honest. Of course the share price could retrace further but in the long run it would then be a massive buy!

Something may be afoot as a chunky trade today which, despite appearances, was presumably a buy given the rise in price.

Another 17% rise today. Not sure what is going on but the ride is getting interesting.

It was the CFO rather than the COO. They are not supposed to sound exciting! He is particularly 'studied' in his style though.

Why would it not surprise me if the guy that bought 1m for 6p this morning was the same guy who sold 1m for 4.5p yesterday morning? Do you think he might have the old adage 'buy low, sell high' the wrong way around?

The debt negotiation and placing went down like a lead balloon and has driven the share price into the ground. Current softening of the gold price hasn't helped sentiment but has been noted before, Shanta has a hedging programme so should fair predictably should the gold price drop substantially although obviously it would fair better with a rising gold price! The current share price is not far above the all time low which is odd given the prospects for the company are now far better than they were, particularly from the point of view of debt repayment. With low cash costs and AISC Shanta should do very well indeed in the next few years.

This has always been their aim and they are in a very good position to expand within Azerbaijan. Leadership team is extremely supportive as well. Debt is inevitably an issue and I would like to see this on a sustainably downwards trend before they start committing funds to other projects.

Good at an operating level but the debt puts a cap on this at current or lower gold prices. AAZ really is a heavily geared play on the gold price so if/when gold really ramps up this should soar. Watch out for a short term correction in the gold price.