Edison Research update28 Feb 2018 14:28
A bit of comfort whilst us LTHs sweat even more with the miserable shareprice, Edison published these comments on RENE:
Quote: ReNeuron�s recent 100 for 1 share consolidation was a benign and cosmetic �tidy up� of its historical capital structure. The share price of ReNeuron is trading at 52-week lows and the recent consolidation may have been an unrelated or an unintended cause for concern for some investors. ReNeuron�s valuation is now below its c �40m cash position. In this update, we offer some possible thoughts on this overreaction and, in the absence of operational newsflow, our forecasts and valuation are largely unchanged.
Share consolidation just cosmetic:
ReNeuron completed a 1 for 100 share consolidation, which was supported and requested by some institutional holders in order to improve marketability, just before a period of intense stock market volatility. It is not possible to know investors� reasons for selling but some may have mistakenly taken the share price rise as an opportunity to �take profits�. ReNeuron�s stock price is now not just trading at 52-week lows, but also below its cash balance. Our valuation of ReNeuron has hardly changed as a result of the share consolidation.
A flight away from risky assets?
A share consolidation is in and of itself not an obvious signal to sell the stock, since the company�s market capitalisation does not change. In the period of market volatility from late January, investors may have sold risky and even risk-free assets in a flight away from risk. To the inexperienced investor, a share consolidation gives the illusion of a higher share price that might have resulted in an investment decision. Investors may also have been worried that the first patient dosed in the late-stage US clinical trial in chronic stroke has not yet been announced. We expect the announcement that the first US chronic stroke patient has been dosed in H118. Loss-making companies can be valued below cash if some of that cash has to be spent to generate a technology value. In ReNeuron�s case any technology value it has generated to date is being discounted. ReNeuron�s lead product is about to start the first of two studies required for FDA approval, and positive long-term Phase II data was recently announced at the American Heart Association meeting.
Valuation: Slightly higher after the consolidation
We have updated our model for the share consolidation (which did not change our operating assumptions) and for our estimates of the FY17 year-end cash position, and have rolled our DCF forward by one quarter. Despite the share consolidation and market volatility, our valuation of �290m (previously �286m) remains largely unchanged. End quote
Hope those comments help a bit. Good luck.