Member Info for Crossthetea

I have my eye on SOLI at the moment myself... expecting big things when Nato countries ramp up to 3% once Trump threatens to withdraw the US.

As for HUM... poor, poor HUM... it is likely 4837N was referring to the Q3 report regarding Yan, being the latest financial data for the group. As for the 4-week rolling average at Kour, who knows which average was being reported, likely the first that justified the meeting and making announcement of commercial level production, which was sometime bridging Q3/4. I surmise this as the forecast was not downgraded, which I would have expected if they expected to continue at average

So Kour is due to make approx 20M in Q4 and Yan did much better than expected during Q3 rainy season so it shouldn't be outrageous to assume it will at least break even.

Without the equity conversion Hum is due to repay 30M of unsecured loan end of year ... though HUM do have a few M in reserves.

That's the current situation, yes? Or am I missing something?

Knife edge stuff...

The WhatsApp bot tells me that it was last updated Dec-23. With no creditors, debt or staff there is no reason for administration. I assume they will delist to save admin costs and sell the IP privately. If the Scarlett Pimpernel of CEOs remembers that he is in charge of course. So look forward to that.

They have the rights to buy 800M at 2.6p, so technically they can wait until the historical 12month highest bid expires, then exercise their rights and offer 2.6p for the remainder of the shares under rule 9.

The problem is that by then it is likely the value of the company will have increased, which means a 2.6pps bid could no longer be fair value and the bid would be rejected.

That and I think the next historical highest bid from Coris is 8p, which expires deep into 2025.

To do this Coris would have to be lenient with debt repayments which would allow Hum to concentrate on opex.

They will lose a bundle in the immediate and have to fight off other bidders if they bid for the company in admin, so I would say it is in their interest to keep Hum out of admin for as long as they need for their eventual acquisition through the back door.

What they are saying is vote yes to the waiver and we MIGHT give you 2.6p for your shares after the equity conversion.

If the vote is no then they will HAVE TO offer 11p for all remaining shares if they want to proceed with the conversion. I'd call their bluff and vote no as they obviously think there is long term value here and shareholders deserve suitable compensation for that value if they are to give up their shares now.

Key word: Voluntary

I would prefer 'Mandatory' which would be the case if we vote no to the waiver.

Voting yes to the waiver is literally turkeys voting for Christmas. All for the sake of a 6month old UNSECURED loan. They are prepping the stuffing as we speak, but it ain't a 2.6p offer...

Well, the fact is that if they guarantee a 2.6p bid then they would work under rule9 and would not need to waiver it.

As it stands if the waiver is passed then Coris could simply say thanks for the shares, we now have complete control and we have decided we don't want to buy any more but do want to leave AIM without compensating you at all because, well, you voted all of your rights away and we legally can.

That's what I would do in Coris' position.

If it was guaranteed and if the BoD truly thinks the offer is fair then they wouldn't need a waiver.

Just thought I would leave this here. Could cause a headache for Russia/Wagner/Africa Corps expansion and their supporters. I would hate to see any Junta try to shake down a Saudi backed concern with all the Kingdom F15s flying about like they own the place.... it would be very good for gold spots though.

https://www.theafricareport.com/369325/salic-maaden-when-the-saudis-set-their-sights-on-africa/

Also, maybe a lead for the financial backing Coris/HUM would seek post privatisation? I have seen stranger things happen and I am sure someone on that side is thinking the same.

It's just a blurb that is put at the footer of every RNS, Toffers, pay no mind.

It's amazing anyone thinks that HUM has any viability going forward as a long term cash generating concern. You know, apart from Coris of course.

Out of interest, what are your opinions on Canaccord buying a very small tranche at 1.5p yesterday (or did I skim that wrong, I am between sites at the moment)?

No, they, will be trading while in default, which will go to arbitration according to the territory cited on the loan agreement because the 30M loan is not secured.

Also, Coris cannot suddenly change the agreed loan terms, if they do then Hum can take them to court!

Basic contract law my friend. Also, basic business for going concerns is to make sure you pay your staff and taxes and make sure the security of any loans is very tightly defined as this is what carries your risk. Unsecured loans are laughable, the only reason CIG provided it was to more easily convert to equity, and this is what they want to do, it's not rocket science. Vote no and make them pay for it.

CIG cannot call for admin based on the 30M unsecured loan. Worst it can do is file a grievance which will be judged in court.

The early Nov update tells us that Coris will delay the repayment schedule pending commercial production and operational improvements, hopefully HUM have that in writing as it gives them quite a bit of breathing room. Someone mentioned end-25 as when payments would resume.

Basically debt is still there, but it is not the main problem. The main problem for Hum is opex and making sure their contractors and suppliers are paid so they continue as a going concern.

Hum support the CIG waiver as it means Coris will continue to provide loans while ops are improved, otherwise they will have to find another lender if it hits the fan in the next year or so. But it screws over the shareholders.

It is in the interest of shareholders to vote no, which will force CIG to present a guarantee to buy out the shareholders to fair value if they want to continue with the exchange, rather than them peddle loose promises and work to further screw shareholders, which is their job tbh.

The CEO will be forced to do his job and find another bank, which is not in the interest of Coris so I see them loosening the screws at that point.

CIG cannot call for admin based on the 30M unsecured loan. Worst it can do is file a grievance which will be judged in court.

The early Nov update tells us that Coris will delay the repayment schedule pending commercial production and operational improvements, hopefully HUM have that in writing as it gives them quite a bit of breathing room. Someone mentioned end-25 as when payments would resume.

Basically debt is still there, but it is not the main problem. The main problem for Hum is opex and making sure their contractors and suppliers are paid so they continue as a going concern.

Hum support the CIG waiver as it means Coris will continue to provide loans while ops are improved, otherwise they will have to find another lender if it hits the fan in the next year or so.

It can still go ahead, it's just that Coris/CIG will be obliged to make a 'fair' offer for the remaining shares.

If they decide not to go ahead then it remains an unsecured liability so they can sell the debt on, defer payments or more likely refinance with a higher interest over longer term.

They cannot 'call the debt' like some here are spouting as the loan is unsecured. Worst they can do is start legal proceedings, though this will make HUM less attractive in the eyes of other potential creditors, and I assume the legal territory will be the UK, so it will take some time to be heard

Trailing four week average 1900oz while still expecting 45koz for year end? So I would ask why production dropped in October, and how much of the 45koz is expected in Q4.

Also, reads like they are moving excavation equipment from Yan to Kour.

Lastly, what is Mali going to tax? The operation is currently loss making! I would expect a deal going forward on profits rather than back taxes in this case.

It can still go ahead, though they will be forced to make a 'fair' offer for a buyout. The offer will have to be accepted by an independent takeover panel, and they will value the company based on assets, income and liabilities before accepting the proposed offer as fair.

Problem for Coris is they know fair value ps is much higher than 2.7p if Kour is at commercial, and even though HUM seems to be sitting on this news, it would have to be disclosed to the panel, or face legal action.

I'd call Coris bluff on this one and reject the waiver, to see what fair value really means by independents. The fact Coris wants a waiver tells me they do not want this to happen because they would end up paying MUCH more per share

Wow, considering pure value in that case, assuming 75M for VEIN, Kour working at commercial and ignoring Yan, HUM is worth roughly 10 times its current market cap. This is also assuming debt are repayments are made at zero risk so adding a fuzz on that and OPEX of ~150M (granted, this is including that for Yan also), this still puts value a few multiples above the 2.7pps Coris are peddling. And if HUM enjoyed good faith then the market would be even more generous.

Surely that couldn't be right, the offer is being proposed in the best interest of the shareholders after all (sarcasm)!

What sticks out to me is the pension fund investment. They would never dilute this away without expecting serious dividends in the future, and they would have sold if they do not expect to continue as a going concern.

Otherwise Ms Raynor will have quite the problem with the Betts family and their other business interests I am sure.

So either admin is on teabreak, or Coris are playing hardball and want a lower subscription cost, or the BoD have finally grown some balls and told them to stop taking the p*ss and pay 11p as per market rules. Chancers.