Member Info for croftoriginal2

• Low-end floor: ~110p/share (Phase 1 reserves only, discounted hard)

• Mid-case realistic: ~129p/share (Phase 1 + modest Phase 2 option)

• High-case bullish: 150–160p if Brent strong and analysts assign >10% to Isobel + future phases

For those that can’t see the vote option yet it is just your broker being slightly slower than some others. It’ll appear in a few days, just keep an eye out for it. Depending on my broker I was sent a separate email for account holding so I’ve ended up voting muotimes for different groups of shares, I suppose it’s a quirk of how the broker handles things internally

I’ve voted for

I think there’s a misunderstanding about the significance of FID announcement, the work being done now is all of the preparation required along with the raising of sufficient finances to START the journey to first oil.

In simple terms before FID there is potential to come unstuck on a regulatory problem or insufficient finances is available or a technical issue arises during design etc. FID signals to the market that all these problems are covered off. That’s not to say that there aren’t still risks from geopolitical moves or cost/time overruns. But it does signal a green light, the project becomes active.

This is huge, I’m expecting fireworks.

Mr Silverfoil

Any IFA’s recommending any UK denominated investments are just highlighting to you how dumb they are. Your friends should have written up clear objectives for the tendering from the IFA’s. Something like this:

Minimise GBP exposure

Avoid UK sovereign debt

Build in currency diversification

Favour ETF structures that are offshore or UCITS-compliant but not UK-domiciled

It posted the technical risks in full!!!

I have other category risk areas but to heavily summarise:

Overall Assessment

• Technical + Financial + Regulatory = largely derisked.

• Geopolitical = only real variable.

👉 Probability of FID green light within 12 months: ~75–80%.

👉 Failure scenarios = geopolitical black swan, not geology or financing.

Reservoir Risk Factors for Sea Lion

• Stacked sands & fans: Sea Lion is a multi-sand, turbidite system. Logs and core data suggest good quality in the main productive intervals, but heterogeneity always introduces risk.

• If vertical connectivity is poorer than modelled, some sands may not drain efficiently.

• This could require more development wells or side-tracks to reach bypassed pockets.

• Lateral continuity: Appraisal wells (including 14/10-2, 14/10-5, 14/15-4, etc.) showed decent lateral spread, but channelised fans can pinch out. This could reduce effective drainage area per producer.

• Fluid properties: Sea Lion crude is a medium gravity oil (~25°–26° API). It’s not heavy, but lower gravity means viscosity is higher than, say, light North Sea grades. Flow rates could be somewhat constrained vs more mobile oils.

• Water encroachment: With stacked reservoirs, uneven aquifer support can lead to early water breakthrough in some wells. That doesn’t kill the project, but it can lower field production efficiency and increase OPEX.

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Mitigations

• Well design: Plan already assumes multi-lateral wells, horizontals into best-quality sands, and smart completions to isolate zones.

• Contingency: FPSO capacity (85–100 kbopd) is a ceiling; they don’t need every well to max out to meet design rates.

• Flexibility: Development plan likely has slot capacity for extra wells if some zones underperform. Navitas know how to phase this in.

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Impact on Economics

• If extra wells/side-tracks are needed: +$30–50m CAPEX per well.

• If plateau is delayed by, say, 6–12 months due to underperforming zones, NPV dips, but project breakeven (~$35–40/bbl) is still robust.

• In worst case (say, 15–20% lower EUR due to poor connectivity), project still makes money, just with a smaller long tail.

Mr LongTermThinker

I don’t have the YouTube link, I’m sure Inspector Mogger could provide it if needed, but somewhere on there is a speech by David Cameron acting as UK Foreign Secretary addressing a group of Falklanders about their way of life, the invasion years ago, current climate policy and the Falkland Islands right to self determination in relation to their national resources.

I give in, full post won’t display

1. Technical risk (reservoir, engineering, logistics)

– Sea Lion’s subsurface is already well appraised: >20 wells drilled, good data, no unknown “frontier” risk left.

– FPSO development is a proven model in harsh seas (North Sea, Brazil).

– Navitas specialise in this type of mid-cap offshore project.

Residual technical risk:

1. Technical risk (reservoir, engineering, logistics)

– Sea Lion’s subsurface is already well appraised: >20 wells drilled, good data, no unknown “frontier” risk left.

– FPSO development is a proven model in harsh seas (North Sea, Brazil).

– Navitas specialise in this type of mid-cap offshore project.

👉 Residual technical risk:

1. Technical risk (reservoir, engineering, logistics)

– Sea Lion’s subsurface is already well appraised: >20 wells drilled, good data, no unknown “frontier” risk left.

– FPSO development is a proven model in harsh seas (North Sea, Brazil).

– Navitas specialise in this type of mid-cap offshore project.

👉 Residual technical risk:

Wow. Someone’s trying hard. FID is the start of the rise in share price, everything up to this point has been a preamble of insignificant proportion. Once the project gets official go ahead then we will see a steady stream of news, official and mogger, each piece of kit or service or contract falling into place, all adding to the progression to first oil and beyond into the wider basin.

Dear Mr Rolf1001

I’ve not read your entire thread but the gist of it is that the perceived change in English national character is just hype on a particular TV channel?

I think what we are seeing now is the realism that this unprecedented continuous wave of illegal immigration is having a profound and potentially permanent impact on the character of the nation. Where previously the impact was restricted to large cities it is now percolating through into smaller towns and villages. Places that saw little to no impact are now seeing an abrupt and significant change to their way of life. This isn’t hype or make believe it is reality impacting Middle England in semi rural areas across the country. To understand this you need to understand the existing culture, it’s not just crime stats it is walking down the street and interacting with people who have absolutely no commonality with local people. For those of us that live and work in these more semi rural towns and villages the divergence is profound. Newcomers are literally breaking the way of life that has slowly evolved over generations of people.

That’s the problem, too many people in too short a time frame. It’s only now starting to hit home as to how profound this change is.

I think this is a non story.

If Israel did slow-walk or block FID under pressure from Milei, it wouldn’t just be a delay. It would be political betrayal in FI eyes, especially after Navitas has:

• Taken the operatorship

• Used the licence as collateral in funding

• Publicly committed to timelines

• Had the FIG economy already gearing up for the jobs and revenue

In that scenario, FIG’s incentive would flip instantly from “partner with Navitas” to “cut Navitas out”, likely under a for cause licence termination argument (non-performance, breach of work programme obligations).

And if Rockhopper is sitting there already funded from OM arbitration + capital raise, FIG could hand them the whole lot and still maintain UK alignment. That’s the kind of move small territories make when they feel cornered — especially if they want to send a geopolitical message that the Falklands isn’t for sale to foreign political pressures.

If Navitas fails to pull the trigger for political rather than technical or financial reasons, they risk losing everything. That makes outright delay less likely, because the self-harm to Navitas would be severe.

1. What Is an MLA?

• MLA stands for Member of the Legislative Assembly.

• The Falkland Islands legislature comprises 8 MLAs: 5 elected from Stanley (the capital) and 3 from Camp (rural areas)   .

• MLAs are independent, non-party, full-time legislators with portfolios like mineral resources, planning, environment, etc. .

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2. Who’s Running in the Upcoming Election?

• The next general election is expected by November 2025, likely happening then .

• That will determine the full slate of MLAs for both constituencies.

Current Incumbents (2021 election)

• Stanley: Leona Roberts, Roger Spink, Pete Biggs, Mark Pollard, Gavin Short

• Camp: Teslyn Barkman, Jack Ford, John Birmingham .

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3. Do Any Candidates Oppose the Sea Lion Oil Project?

• No public statements from MLAs or known candidates have surfaced opposing Sea Lion or oil development.

• In fact, public sentiment and government posture remain strongly pro-development, viewing Sea Lion as a key economic driver (e.g., £4 billion in revenue; widely supported in 2024 consultation)  .

• Jack Ford, elected in a 2023 Camp by-election, supports industrial diversification, infrastructure, and economic growth, but has not opposed oil projects—and the February 2025 consultation found broad pro-oil sentiment .

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4. Is Political Risk Material to FID?

• Low at this point. No anti-oil campaigners are known, and the Assembly’s structure leans pro-development.

• If emerging candidates or campaign platforms begin opposing Sea Lion, there could be a small political headwind, but that seems unlikely at this stage.

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Bottom Line

• MLAs have not signaled opposition to Sea Lion.

• The Assembly remains aligned behind development, with no credible anti-oil challengers so far.

• You can treat this as a stable political environment for FID—so long as you stay alert in the run-up to the 2025 election.

Thank you Mr Ovets

Regarding the MLA elections, likely in November this year. This was a concern for me but based on what I can find it seems to be widely supported. This may be one for Detective Mogger to investigate further….

Current Political Landscape

• Jack Ford (Camp MLA) advocates industrial diversification and local resilience but hasn’t taken a public anti-Sea Lion stance. 

• Teslyn Barkman (Camp MLA) and Leona Vidal Roberts (Stanley MLA) maintain non-partisan positions, with no indications of opposing oil development. 

• A public consultation in summer 2024 reported strong local support for the project, suggesting political headwinds against Sea Lion are limited. 

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Bottom Line

As things stand:

• The 2025 election is unlikely to significantly disrupt Sea Lion’s FID trajectory unless a new wave of anti-development sentiment emerges in campaign platforms.

• Without prominent candidate opposition, and given past polling and consultation support, the political risk to FID remains low.

I will counter this, I’ve always criticised Rockhopper when I’ve felt they’ve messed up, for example the whole Egypt and Med extravaganza which tied us in knots and whittled away our farm down cash and the taxation mess up with the FIG which is still a thorn in our side to this day. But I have to say that the recovery from the OM debacle was handled well and I feel the placement and open offer is actually ok for PIs. It can’t have escaped people’s notice that this would have been priced before the rise to above 70p, I’d say mid 60’s so not too huge a discount and as far as warrants are concerned this only rewards those that stick with the share longer term. If they offload placed shares then they don’t get any 80p warrants. This has been copied by Navitas and seems to have helped the share price after a placement when we’ve seen before that the IIs just offload shares into a depressed market which then means PIs can’t free up money to buy at a discount. Overall I don’t think this is a bad deal at all, I will be voting in favour of this as it leads directly to FID and wasn’t priced badly, I’ll also be applying for overs in my SIPP and ISA accounts

Dear Mr Ralph

I expect that the shares will trade in the same way as they trade on most weekdays. Recent 12 month trend has been upwards and so it would seem most likely that this trend persists and therefore the shares rise in price.

Dear Mr HappyInvestor

1) FIG (Falkland Islands Government) Approval

Status: Procedural, but required.

• FIG has already been working in lockstep with Navitas and RKH.

• Environmental and development plans have been submitted and iterated upon.

• FIG has every incentive to approve (tax revenues, jobs, political alignment).

Timeline: Late Sept–Oct, in parallel with Navitas’ capital vote and RKH open offer process.

No material risk here — this is a sign-off, not a negotiation.

⸻

2) UK Government Approval

Status: No direct approval needed post-UKEF withdrawal.

• UKEF funding is no longer part of the financing package, so the UK government’s formal role has diminished.

• Defence or security guarantees for senior debt are not required. Senior lenders price project risk commercially.

• However, HMG will be kept informed because of the Falklands’ geopolitical relevance — they will not obstruct, especially given the strategic interest in non-OPEC supply.

This is informational, not an approval gate.

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3) Israeli Government Approval (Navitas)

Status: Not a legal prerequisite, but politically relevant.

• Navitas is listed on TASE and requires partnership unit-holder approval (Sept 7 vote).

• Israeli regulators oversee capital raises, but not project-specific FID decisions.

• Argentina-Israel relations under Milei are exceptionally strong (as you noted, Netanyahu visit mooted).

• No credible scenario where Israel pressures Navitas to block FID — if anything, geopolitical alignment is supportive.

Israeli political risk: negligible. Milei will not jeopardize his strongest international alliance over Falklands rhetoric he cannot act on.

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4) Senior Debt Facility

Status: FID-linked but not needed pre-FID.

• The equity (RKH placing + Navitas capital raise) secures FID.

• Senior debt is usually signed shortly after FID, triggered once contracts for long-lead items are ready.

• Interest only starts accruing post-drawdown, so Navitas has every incentive to finalize debt at the last practical moment.

• Debt term sheet likely already drafted and “soft-circled” with lenders; formal signing will align with FPSO and rig commitments.

Your assumption is correct: senior debt is a post-FID procedural step, not a blocker to FID itself.