Member Info for croftoriginal2

If you plot national cognitive ability (e.g., IQ, SAT equivalents) as a bell curve, you can’t double, triple or quadruple university attendance without moving the admission threshold lower.

So, on average, the median student in 2025’s “university sector” is less academically strong than the median student in 1985’s smaller system. That’s simple arithmetic.

Where are these mediocre intellectuals, everywhere, public sector civil servants to private sector management and directors. They sit in courtrooms and on quangos and they run regulators, they form policy for defence and commerce.

Nick, you’ve just touched on a subject that has altered the UK profoundly over the course of my working life.

I’m ok with equality, whatever the characteristic is, meritocracy works well.

However the UK has been subjected to “second wave feminism” and the main objective was to disempower white men. I left my last job due to being surrounded by EDI promotions who simply couldn’t perform, my job is highly technical and PowerPoint presentations and chitter-chatter simply don’t cut it.

I put a lot of the blame of the Blair spell of government where he dismantled education standards, particularly Universities. When I went to university to study mathematics less than 5% of the school population would’ve expected to get a degree, but that degree was worth something and opened doors to a career running both private and public sector enterprises. As a species we haven’t become more intelligent but now we have approaching 50% (40 to 50) and this opens the same doors. So for the past 25 years we’ve had lots of mediocre people moving into senior positions while all the older top 5% people retire. The result is a country run by mediocre intellectuals.

Actually I agree with nikb.

Like many of these things it’s divided western society and it becomes a difficult subject to discuss in public due to the torrent of abuse that subsequently follows any dissent of the commonly accepted views.

I could add other unconnected topics that have also recently divided western society and you start to see a pattern.

Personally I believe climate change and a few other topics are all about divide and conquer driven by money and power.

We are seeing a massive push back globally against the west from BRICS and the west’s response appears to be to use this as an opportunity to subjugate its population.

If anyone thinks this isn’t all linked then they are mistaken. The question I’m asking myself is how to best protect myself, my family and others around me, some of whom have swallowed this climate alarmism hook line and sinker.

What is the big problem with it being a bit warmer. I went for a walk yesterday evening after work, it was about 7pm, dark, November and yet I was wearing t shirt and shorts. What’s not to like about a 15 degrees C evening in November. It’s better than scraping the ice of your car windows as your fingertips go numb.

You’re welcome.

Brave seems to work fine in its default settings for me when accessing the LSE site, however you do have the ability to adjust the security settings by clicking the Lion Head down by the URL bar, in there you can adjust the Brave shield settings or drop them to test if something is broken on the site, you can also block scripting and shred site data.

1. Jurisdiction:

Sea Lion sits in the Falkland Islands Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) — a self-governing British Overseas Territory.

• The UK government does not have tax authority over Falklands resources.

• Taxation and licensing fall under the Falkland Islands Government (FIG), not HM Treasury.

2. Legal Framework:

Under the Falkland Islands Petroleum Act 1996 and subsequent regulations:

• Royalties, license fees, and corporate taxes are collected by the FIG.

• These are ring-fenced locally, not remitted to the UK.

3. UK Treasury Position:

The UK provides foreign policy and defence support but explicitly respects fiscal autonomy.

• No income, capital gains, or windfall tax from UK Parliament applies to projects within the Falklands EEZ.

• RKH’s UK listing does not give UK government a tax hook into Sea Lion revenues.

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🔹 Caveats — What can be taxed by the UK?

• If RKH were to repatriate profits to the UK parent entity, then:

• UK corporate tax could apply at the point of distribution (depending on how it’s structured).

• But RKH can manage this with intermediate holding companies or offshore reinvestment — which is standard for extractives.

• Dividends to you as a UK tax resident will be taxed personally (unless you’ve relocated to IoM or structured around it). That’s your exposure — not Sea Lion’s.

Mainstream media coverage will soon switch focus to the pre budget speech from Rachel leaving opposition voices with little coverage.

Starmer and Reeves hint at tax rises to come ahead of unusual pre-budget speech today

The chancellor will address the nation from Downing Street on Tuesday morning, weeks before she delivers her second budget. It comes amid rampant speculation she will break Labour's manifesto commitments on tax rises.

Samula, ChatGPT says:

You’re absolutely right — thank you for the correction.

💡 Updated Strategic Window: Thursday 6th – Monday 10th November

1. 6th November (Thurs)

Most likely day for final board sign-off, debt close-out, or locked-in partner terms (FPSO, bank syndicates).

📍 Trigger point for the 1m 2013 LTIP award to vest.

2. 7th November (Fri)

Ideal day for a pre-weekend FID announcement, giving global media full weekend coverage. Israeli week ends here — aligns with Navitas working week close.

3. 8th–9th November (Sat–Sun)

UK markets closed, but announcement still possible via Israel/partners (Navitas → press, RNS queued).

📍 Would catch UK investors off guard — smart money already positioned.

4. 10th November (Mon)

Strategic market open day. If FID news lands pre-market, it catalyses gap-up RKH trading, with follow-on news flow all week (contracts, FPSO partner, analyst coverage).

🧩 Thesis: Evidence Points to FID on or Around 6th November

1. The 17 Million Share Blocklisting

• On 30th October, Rockhopper Exploration announced a blocklisting application for 17 million new ordinary shares.

• This covers both:

• Historic awards under the 2013 LTIP, and

• Ongoing awards under the 2020 Share Option Plan.

✅ Crucially, the 2013 LTIP includes performance-based awards linked to project sanction — i.e. Final Investment Decision (FID) for Sea Lion.

Though the scheme is closed to new grants, awards already granted under it remain exercisable upon meeting trigger conditions (such as FID).

2. Timing: Why Now?

• These shares are being made available just days before 6th November, implying:

• The board expects vesting conditions to be met imminently (i.e. FID is about to be announced).

• The shares must be in treasury before any announcement, to satisfy regulatory, banking, and contractual obligations (e.g. equity structure for project finance approval).

3. **EDIT - I’ve removed this as it’s a bit to controversial to post on a public forum **

4. Legal and Compensation Triggers

• The 2013 LTIP includes a 1 million share award to a director explicitly tied to “project sanction” — now being readied for issuance.

• The 2025 AGM documents confirm that while no new awards can be granted under the 2013 LTIP, existing ones can still vest.

• Issuing these now strongly implies that the trigger event (FID) is either achieved or contractually locked.

5. Calendar & Communication Window

• The 6th November is:

• The first full Monday after the Israeli financial week (Sun–Thurs) resumes post-AGMs and October reporting.

• A strategic media window for a pre-market RNS and investor/press call, giving time to prepare the equity markets for what will be one of the most significant AIM oil events in years.

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🧠 Conclusion

• The share issuance, the timing, the historical LTIP wording, the ******removed********trade, and the post-AGM silence from Navitas, all support the thesis that FID is due imminently, likely on or just after Monday 6th November.

• From a forensic and behavioural perspective, this pattern strongly resembles pre-event positioning often seen ahead of major project sanctions, mergers, or funding announcements.

1. Base decline rates (~6–8% per annum globally) mean that the world needs to replace 5–6 mbpd every year — just to stay flat.

2. New project FIDs are below replacement rate, especially long-cycle assets. Sea Lion is one of the few moving forward.

3. U.S. shale productivity is flattening. GOR (gas–oil ratio) and parent–child well interference are degrading tight oil returns.

4. OPEC spare capacity is constrained, and non-OPEC (e.g. Angola, Mexico, Malaysia) is in structural decline.

5. Geopolitical weaponisation of oil flows (India/Russia, China/Saudi, Iran sanctions) is creating a balkanised market with uneven access and pricing.

6. ESG pressure, financing withdrawal, and legal risk are deterring development in frontier basins like the South Atlantic — exactly where RKH is positioned.

Two realistic scenarios now exist:

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✅ Scenario 1 – “Tick-the-box” Completion (Fast Path):

• Bank DD already complete

• Lenders were just waiting on official sign-off of the 2024 financials

• No further committee approvals or negotiations needed

• Outcome: FID can drop within days, possibly Sunday (Israeli schedule) or coordinated RNS Monday morning (UK).

This matches the market optimism we’ve seen this week: pricing in an imminent, low-friction FID.

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⚠️ Scenario 2 – Sequential Trigger (Slower Path):

• Audited 2024 statements were a prerequisite, not the final item

• Final lender approvals, committee sign-offs, or covenant reworks (e.g. from Form T138) still required

• Process takes 1–2 weeks

• Outcome: FID is delayed until mid-to-late November

This fits if the lead banks (e.g. Israeli + global syndicate) are more conservative or if certain conditions have only just been met this week.

Summary of Agenda Items and Outcomes:

Item

Subject

Decision

1

Presentation of 2024 financial statements and directors’ report

For reporting only (no vote)

2

Reappointment of auditors (Kost Forer Gabbay & Kasierer)

Approved

3

Updated compensation policy for officers and general partner

Approved

4

Updated service/employment terms for officers of general partner

Approved

5

Re-issue of indemnification/exemption letters to controlling shareholders

Voting Results: All passed by strong majorities (often 80–99% approval), with detailed breakdowns provided for transparency. No mention or hint of capital expenditure approval, strategic project decisions, or Sea Lion/FID planning was included.

If the local election results are catastrophic for Labour and as a knee neck reaction they boot Starmer out as leader would Ed, King of net zero, become our PM?

🔍 Why July 31st is likely the record date:

• That’s when the placing occurred. The institutional placing was executed that day, and the open offer was presented as a retail counterpart — a way to let existing holders not be diluted unfairly.

• RKH explicitly stated the Open Offer was designed to allow existing shareholders (unable to participate in the placing) to take part.

→ If they let anyone buy in after that date and qualify, it would defeat the point entirely.

• London Stock Exchange rules allow a company to set a “record date” for an Open Offer before the actual publication of the circular. The record date just has to be clearly communicated in the circular when it comes out.

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⚖️ Legal Mechanism vs Market Assumptions

• ✅ Legal fact: RKH hasn’t yet published the circular, so the record date isn’t formally announced.

• 🧠 Logical deduction: If they choose any date after 31 July, they’d be giving people who weren’t shareholders at the time of the placing the chance to buy in at 53p — which makes no sense.

• The open offer is conditional on FID being announced.

• The record date (which determines eligibility) has not yet been publicly confirmed.

• There is no guarantee that buying today will qualify you.

• Equally, there is no confirmation that the record date has already passed.

• The original circular (August 2025) did not specify a fixed record date. It only mentioned the offer would occur post-FID and that eligible shareholders would be notified at that time.

I’m sure there were some posts here that no longer appear now.

I’m not sure how this type of thing works, if you are FIG and you require a license to be drilled within a specific timeframe would you offer the license to Navitas/Rockhopper in a 65:35 split first as they potentially are the only ones that have a rig inbound to be able to do anything?

“Ode to the Unhappy Investor”

(with apologies to logic, which you seem to have misplaced)

Oh HappyInvestor, name so bright,

Yet every post a dreary night —

You speak of gloom, of faded dreams,

Of “meaningless ads” and “risky schemes.”

You mutter, “Ten years! They hired before!”

(Yes, nations built less in a war.)

But tell us, sage, who reads the runes —

Do you not see the drilling boons?

For PMO is gone, replaced by might,

Navitas — lean, efficient, tight.

They don’t do hope, they do cashflow,

They build, they ship, they make oil go.

You say “Sam has no sway, he waits!”

Yet who aligned the partners’ fates?

Who held the torch through years of cold,

Till Sea Lion rose from tales retold?

You cry, “The market’s priced it in!”

Ah yes — like every major win.

Like every field before first oil,

That later made the doubters spoil.

“The tsunami of shares!” you fear, you say —

As if new funds keep value away.

But projects breathe through equity’s art,

It’s called development, Happy, smart!

So please, dear doomster, take a rest,

Your “all IMHO” is second best.

For while you hedge and sigh and moan,

Navitas build — and not alone.

When FID drops (it will, old friend),

We’ll toast the start, not fret the end.

And as that oil begins to flow,

Your “priced-in” view will look… quite low.

So cheer up, Happy — change your tune!

The Lion wakes — and soon, so soon.

In every age a few choose the narrow road, the path that winds between impossible odds. So it was in 1177, when the knights of Jerusalem rode from Ascalon against an army twenty times their size. And so it has been, across centuries, whenever men and women have refused to yield their ground.

The engineers and financiers of Sea Lion did not ride with lances, but their campaign has been no less relentless. They faced deserts of delay, tempests of regulation, and the long siege of doubt. Yet, like those knights who held Jerusalem, they believed that endurance itself is a weapon.

Each technical study, each negotiation, each year of holding the line has been another charge down the slope at Montgisard: precise, disciplined, unstoppable. Where others saw futility, they saw a flank exposed; where others turned back, they found the moment to strike.

Their code was the same as that of Baldwin’s small host—faith in the cause, mastery of craft, and the quiet courage to act while others hesitate. The knights fought for a city; Navitas and its allies fight for a vision: that energy sovereignty and honest persistence still have a place in a world ruled by short memory and shorter patience.

When the Final Investment Decision is signed, it will stand not as a miracle but as a reward for endurance. The field will move from myth to motion; the impossible made real through the same spirit that once defended the walls of Jerusalem.

And generations from now, when the wells have long since yielded their wealth, the story will remain: that a handful of steadfast believers held the line, advanced when others withdrew, and proved once again that conviction outlasts circumstance.

Just to clarify, I’ve mentioned this before, I am expecting fireworks when this gets announced, not just FID and then tumbleweed. It’s highly likely that FID is combined with debt financing and then closely follow by a succession of contracts.

✅ Immediately After FID (Week 0–4)

• 🛠️ FPSO charter (new build or conversion)

• 🔧 Topside EPC (engineering, procurement, construction)

• 🌊 Subsea EPC (manifolds, flowlines, umbilicals)

• 🛢️ Drilling rig charter (semi-sub or drillship)

• 🧱 Onshore base support & logistics facility setup

• 📄 Insurance and risk management placement

• 🧮 Project management consultancy & cost controllers

⸻

⚙️ Short Term (Month 1–6)

• 🔩 Well services (mud, cementing, completions)

• 🧰 Casing, tubing, and drill pipe supply contracts

• 🛰️ Communications and IT infrastructure (onshore to FPSO)

• 🚁 Helicopter transport services

• 🚢 Marine support vessels (supply, anchor handling)

• 🍽️ Catering and accommodation contracts

• 🔍 Environmental & ESG compliance monitoring

• 🚧 Shorebase construction and fuel supply chain

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🚧 Mid-Term (Month 6–18)

• 🧪 Subsea installation and testing contractors

• 📍 Pipelay barge or export pipeline EPC (if applicable)

• 💼 Workforce training, onboarding, and local content deployment

• 🔐 Security services (physical and cyber)

• 🧯 Emergency response contracts

⸻

🛢️ Final Phase Before First Oil (Month 18–36)

• 🔍 Commissioning services for topside and subsea

• 🛠️ Operational readiness and HSE audits

• 📋 Long-term operations & maintenance (O&M) contracts

• 🧑‍🏭 Production personnel contracts and shift rosters