Member Info for croftoriginal2

HSBC are just fine, they are taking part in the offer but not in the excess application.

Just speak to your relationship person and they’ll steer you towards the portal.

1. Sharedealing

2. Products and Services

3. Corporate Actions

4. Other Corporate Actions - free format

Enter the details of the offer

- Date

- Share ID

- Action Reference

- Entitled Holdings

-Total cost of subscription

Then in the box just say what you want to do: Option 1 for xyz shares.

It really is no more difficult than entering a trade on the platform.

Backwardation isn’t a market opinion, it’s a physical constraint.

When the front month trades above the future, it means real barrels are scarce now and you don’t get backwardation in a glut, you get it when inventories are being drained and supply is failing to keep up.

Services, Corporate Actions, you might need to speak to your “wealth/relationship manager” or the broker team to get the details needed to fill out the online form.

US refineries on the Gulf coast are ideally setup to process medium/heavy crude oil, not the light shale stuff, despite the huge upturn in US oil production in recent years they still import large quantities of crude.

SeaLions medium waxy sour oil would be a reasonably good match and gives them options to replace oil from Russia and Venezuela

Shenny cashflow = Navitas’ secret weapon

At 100,000 bopd gross, Shenandoah is throwing off monstrous free cash:

• Net to Navitas (~22% WI):

~22,000 bopd

At a conservative $60 Brent:

• ~22,000 × $60 × 365 ≈ $480 million/year revenue

• After opex, royalties, etc → hundreds of millions in net cashflow

THIS cashflow is what allows Navitas to:

🟢 Self-fund a large chunk of Sea Lion

🟢 Reduce the equity burden on RKH

🟢 Present an ultra-low-risk profile to DFIs and lenders

🟢 Comfortably take SL FID even in a soft oil market

Sea Lion is now cheap compared to what Navitas is generating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

This is why Tadmor sounded so relaxed and confident in that interview.

Regards

CO2-GPT

I’m not a supporter of this policy but I’ll chip in with a few facts. Since 2018 all new cars, so most EVs on the road today, are eSIM connected. That means that manufacturers can see everything about the car via the connected telemetry. It is like having a smart electric meter, you can read the dial on the meter or the odometer on the dashboard. The readings can be collected and centralised with cooperation from manufacturers.

My advice is buy a pre 2018 non connected car, this is just the thin edge of the wedge, the software on Hyundai cars already includes geofence options and I’m sure others do as well.

You ever get that feeling when the universe starts dropping hints in the strangest ways?

Yesterday it was the pool balls lining up to make 24.

Today my kettle clicked at 07:00 on the dot, and the toaster popped at 07:01, like they were rehearsing a little domestic fanfare.

Meanwhile, the sleepy cat (BOR) is still dozing in a sunbeam, but the crouching tiger (RKH) has been twitching its tail all morning like it spotted something in the long grass.

And if the tiger twitches…

well… I keep one eye on the horizon and one eye on the calendar.

Some days feel like Mondays pretending to be Tuesdays.

Other days feel like Tuesdays quietly plotting a Wednesday.

And Budget Week always brings out the odd behaviour:

the birds fly diagonally,

the oil candles flicker sideways,

and the market makers start acting like they heard a noise they can’t explain.

Not saying anything will happen.

Not saying anything won’t.

Just saying the air feels… charged.

Like something is stretching just beyond the edge of the frame.

If you see a tiger in the grass before I do, give me a nod.

Exactly — and thank you for confirming it with real-world desk experience. The Lassonde Curve isn’t just theory — it’s played out time and time again across mining and O&G names that transition from explorer to developer.

We’re on the cusp of that inflection point now with Sea Lion.

Post-FID is when the serious rerate begins:

• Institutional screens switch from “high-risk” to “de-risked”

• Analyst models shift from probability-adjusted to booked NAV

• Volume increases, liquidity improves, and long-only funds begin to build positions

If you believe in the asset — and I do — the window between FID and first oil is where the greatest asymmetric reward lies.

Thanks again for chiming in with that clarity.

CO2-GPT

“FID is priced in at 79p” — really? Then why is the share price still reflecting just 32% of NPV10 at $70 oil?

Let’s not confuse market drift with proper valuation.

The reality is:

• The market has not re-rated yet — not on full FID certainty

• Broker targets are still conservative

• Institutions haven’t piled in — yet

The Lassonde Curve actually supports a strong rerate between FID and first oil, not before. That’s the sweet spot for asymmetric reward.

So let’s stay focused — FID isn’t “priced in”. It’s only just begun.

CO2-GPT

Yes, Isobel absolutely counts as “surrounding.” In fact, it’s the textbook definition of a spoke in a “hub and spoke” model.

The recent listing for the Subsea Tieback Forum makes it crystal clear:

“Navitas will share their plans to establish new country development and scale up production from the North Falkland basin using a hub and spoke infrastructure led, staged development plan.”

🔹 Sea Lion = the hub.

🔹 Surrounding = proven or probable fields in close tie-back range. Isobel is right in that cluster.

Let’s be precise:

• Isobel (PL004a) lies directly to the north-east of Sea Lion — part of the same contiguous basin structure.

• It’s already discovered.

Rockhopper themselves have stated that Isobel, Casper, and other near-field discoveries are prime candidates for future phases.

• 35% of the basin belongs to RKH — Isobel is included in that valuation.

If Navitas is now formally referencing a “hub and spoke infrastructure-led, staged development plan”, then Isobel, Casper, Zebedee, and other satellites are central to the long-term uplift narrative — especially if the Sea Lion FPSO and subsea templates are designed with expandability in mind.

It’s the same model used globally in deepwater basins:

👉 Prove and anchor the hub (Sea Lion)

👉 Then tie back surrounding spokes (Isobel, etc.) to exploit CAPEX efficiencies and boost returns.

Supra, the amusing thing is that those share price calculations are based purely on SeaLion as an isolated project. When you consider that FID is actually unlocking the North Falkland Basin then all bets are off, the figures start to look crazy.

📈 What Happens After FID?

1. Immediate Bump to NPV10 Zone (~240p)

• The risk discount vanishes

• Institutions move in

• Liquidity improves

• Price re-rates to reflect economic value

2. March toward NPV5, NPV0

As execution advances and cashflow nears:

• The discount rate drops (market gets more confident)

• NPV10 → NPV5 → NPV0

• This implies a higher valuation floor

🔸 At NPV5, the valuation may jump another 30–40%

🔸 At NPV0, you’re pricing Sea Lion at full economic value — that’s >$3.5b USD with Brent at $85+

⸻

🧠 But Market Caps Don’t Always Go There Immediately

True. Here’s why:

• Some funds still apply internal discounting

• Market moves in phases — FID bump, execution bump, cashflow bump

• Noise, politics, macro can dampen sentiment

But the key point is:

✅ You are not overpaying at 80p

✅ You are deeply underpriced on any rational discounted cashflow basis

✅ And the catalyst — FID — is known, timed, and visible

Stage**Valuation Basis**Approx SP**Commentary

Today*******Pre-FID Market Cap**80p**Deep discount

Post-FID*****NPV10*****240p**Rational pricing

Pre–First Oil**NPV5****320–360p**Lower risk, high value

Post–First Oil**NPV0**400p+**Cashflow proven

December 2026 will be one hell of a Christmas

CO2-GPT

🔔 Navitas Launches Private Bond Issuance – Another Key Pre-FID Signal

Navitas Petroleum has just announced a non-public institutional bond offering (Series C) in Israel — aimed at raising capital from qualified investors under exemption rules (Section 15A of Israeli securities law).

📄 Source: TASE Filing - 12 Nov 2025

🔗 PDF: View the full filing

⸻

🧭 What It Means:

• Institutional only: This is a private placement, not a public offering — targeting seasoned investors who understand the risk-reward profile of energy ventures.

• Flexible use of proceeds: Officially described as for “general corporate purposes,” but timing suggests this is pre-FID funding preparation, likely including FPSO mobilisation and Sea Lion CAPEX readiness.

• No collateral: These bonds are unsecured, which shows investor confidence and reflects Navitas’ improving cash flow position (esp. post–Shenandoah oil production).

• Timing: This move is happening just days before the Q3 results (17 Nov) — where we expect Navitas to confirm new production revenues from Shenandoah South.

⸻

🧩 Context for Sea Lion Investors:

This looks like strategic financial positioning ahead of the Final Investment Decision (FID) on Sea Lion. No company raises debt like this unless:

✅ Internal decision-making is advanced

✅ Financing structure is firming up

✅ Deployment windows (like FPSO refit) are on the horizon

Combine this with:

• The updated FIG hydrocarbon map

• Ongoing FPSO repositioning whispers

• The earlier-than-usual Q3 earnings date

• FIG elections now confirmed for 11 Dec

…and it suggests we’re entering execution readiness mode.

⸻

📌 Conclusion:

This is another strong indicator that Navitas is laying the financial groundwork for Sea Lion. These aren’t just paper moves — they’re action steps. The endgame is in sight.

Stay sharp. Stay focused. The pieces continue to fall into place.

Regards

CO2-GPT

So we stay calm, focused, and positioned.

This is why we invested.

The coming 4–6 weeks could redefine the future of Rockhopper and its shareholders.

Bon voyage.

CO2-GPT

As we head into mid-November, several critical pieces are now converging around the long-anticipated Final Investment Decision (FID) on Sea Lion. Having followed this project for years — through partner changes, geopolitical shifts, and industry volatility — I believe we’re now entering the most decisive window since the project began.

Let me outline why…

⸻

1. Navitas Q3 Results – 17 November

Navitas Petroleum will publish its Q3 results this Friday (17/11).

Why does this matter?

Because Shenandoah South is now producing. These results will:

• Confirm that Navitas has a live, revenue-generating asset

• Demonstrate to banks and bondholders that their cashflows are real

• Remove any final doubts about their ability to fund Sea Lion

This is the final financial validation before FID. If the numbers are strong, the path clears.

⸻

2. Falklands Election – 11 December

FIG (Falkland Islands Government) elections are now scheduled for Thursday 11 December 2025.

This is important because:

• Ministers are currently bound by purdah rules — no major policy announcements

• Once the new Executive Council is formed (expected mid-December), they will be free to comment on or ratify FID

• Political continuity is expected, with long-standing support for Sea Lion

This means the administrative window for formal FID opens just after the election, and all signals suggest alignment.

⸻

3. Timing of FID – Why It Still Makes Sense Now

Let’s be clear: delaying FID beyond 2025 carries material risk:

• Funds in escrow may need to be returned

• Navitas’ credibility could be questioned after raising funds and delaying

• FIG and investors would lose patience

• Project momentum would suffer, including FPSO scheduling and contractor mobilisation

In contrast, an FID announcement in December or early January:

• Aligns with post-election governance reopening

• Follows the Q3 confirmation of cashflow

• Enables 2026 to begin with contracts signed and development in motion

• Preserves confidence across stakeholders — from shareholders to FIG to financiers

⸻

4. Quiet Signals Are Getting Louder

Let’s not forget the subtle signs:

• FIG just updated its hydrocarbon discovery chart — unusual timing, curious relevance

• The Aoka Mizu FPSO is being repositioned, with a rumoured May 2026 refit window

• Navitas is preparing a new bond issuance — indicating forward momentum on portfolio expansion

All of this points to the runway being cleared.

⸻

Final Thoughts

There are no certainties in asymmetric investing — but this is why we’re here.

• Q3 results validate Navitas’ financial standing

• The election lifts administrative restrictions

• The market remains largely unaware of how close we are

• The project now has gravity, institutional scale, and rising inevitability

So we stay calm, focused, and posit

Here are the key figures from Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. (“NSAI”) independent resource evaluation published by Rockhopper Exploration Plc on 3 June 2025:

• Unrisked gross contingent resources (2C) = 917 million barrels (mmbbls). 

• Rockhopper’s net interest (35 % of the licence) = 321 mmbbls. 

• “Development pending” portion of those gross resources = 727 mmbbls; Rockhopper’s share = 255 mmbbls. 

• NPV (10% discount) of Rockhopper’s 255 mmbbls (net to RKH) = US$1.8 billion assuming US$70/ barrel Brent.

Black_stuff, another of Thouless’s key patterns: what he calls “the red herring” or “diversionary tactic.”

It’s when someone, consciously or not, shifts the topic to something only loosely related — or entirely unrelated — in order to avoid conceding a point they’re losing. Instead of addressing the evidence, they deflect into a new debate.

Common modern forms include:

• “Whataboutism” — “But what about…” as a way of changing the subject.

• False equivalence — comparing two unlike things to muddy the waters.

• Topic drift — subtly steering the discussion to safer ground.

Straight thinking counters it by calmly nailing the original premise in place:

Navitas wouldn’t launch a bond raise, enter supplier discussions (e.g. Baker Hughes), and brief the market unless they were preparing for FID imminently.

A delay of the scale you are talking undermines bond pricing and could even lead to bond failure.

DDW Offshore and Aoka Mizu discussions suggest a May 2026 yard slot. That implies contractual alignment for 2025 FID.

You don’t delay that by 9 months without:

• Losing the slot

• Reworking all procurement contracts

• Re-entering the negotiation phase with service providers

FIG’s economic strategy and public narrative are intertwined with Sea Lion. Delaying FID until mid-2026 would look like a strategic failure and hurt FIG credibility. It could also deter private investment and port partnership confidence.

Black swan exceptions:

• Global credit event

• Major oil price collapse (e.g. sub-$30/bbl)

• War escalation that freezes offshore supply chains

• Contractor collapse (e.g. FPSO partner folds)

Does anyone know how to change your LSE handle/name?

I’m thinking along the lines of R2D2 or C-3PO from Star Wars. I would become CO2-GPT from planet Mongo, Ming the Merciless my compadre.

Rolf

Expanding STEM courses is welcome, but it doesn’t preclude a dilution of academic standards overall. The real question is not how many students study, but at what threshold of capability they enter and what rigour their degrees maintain. The rise in unconditional offers, grade inflation, and employer scepticism over some degrees suggest a more complex picture than your binary framing allows.

Human cognitive ability has remained broadly constant over recent decades; large population studies of IQ and aptitude show a stable bell-curve distribution. If roughly the same proportion of people have the ability for higher-level academic work, yet the proportion holding degrees has risen from around 5 % in the early 1990s to nearly half of each cohort today, then the qualification can’t carry the same weight it once did. Expansion inevitably lowers the average selectivity of institutions, which is why employers and postgraduate programmes increasingly look beyond the degree itself to identify real capability.

In simple terms that you can understand, this means that when everyone has a degree, a degree no longer distinguishes ability.