Member Info for croftoriginal2

I expect the Argentines are thinking that there are four Eurofighter Typhoons based in the FI with two on immediate response 24x7 so best not to fafo.

On my screen Brent is around $85

Dictumdedicto, I’ve been watching this closely for the past few weeks, the Straits of Hormuz being a key bottleneck for oil supplies and the main driver of oil price rises. I’m expecting to see Brent move up into the 80’s next week. Not sure what Rockhopper will do, we are in a 65 to 75 band at the moment.

Closer to home we have the Green Party acting as a Trojan horse for radical Islam and there is likely to be a weak response from the government. Some of the campaign leaflets put out by the Green Party were astonishing in how blatant they were.

Charlie Munger is reputed to have said:

“The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.”

Buffett echoed the same idea in different way:

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Another classic:

“Our favourite holding period is forever.”

This part is where Sam could potentially be credited with some input:

“” In January 2020, Navitas farmed into 30% of the Sea Lion licences: Working interests aligned across the Sea Lion licences PL032, PL004b and PL004c: Premier 40% (Operator); Rockhopper 30%; Navitas 30%””

Premier were lacklustre in terms of progression of SeaLion, introductions were made and a deal struck leading to where we are now, no one can say for sure who steered this decision but I’m not pinning any medals to anyone from Premier Oil.

Keep an eye on the Straits of Hormuz, even temporary closure is likely to cause a spike in oil price.

What we really want for SeaLion.

• $65 → $70 → $75 over 18–24 months

• shallow backwardation

• steady inventory draws

• refiners making money

• no panic headlines

This environment:

• keeps demand intact

• avoids policy overreaction

• restores investor confidence in energy

• raises long-term forward curves

• improves hedge pricing for projects nearing first oil

In other words:

The world quietly admits oil is scarce without screaming about it.

That’s perfect for Sea Lion.

It looks like I should get 95.75% of my excess shares, but then I didn’t go too greedy and scaled my original request to match my entitlement for that account.

I haven’t been refunded the unused cash yet and the excess shares are sat under a separate entry labelled “provisional excess shares” so maybe my allocation could still change.

Is this related to SeaLion development or elsewhere in the NFB?

$80 oil prediction for 2026 from Josef.

Josef Schachter is a Canadian energy market analyst, investor, and commentator known for his independent research on oil and gas equities.

I asked ChatGPT how much money will be returned to shareholders who could not get their full excess allocation.

£54.0m - £7.0m = £47.0m

👉 Approximately £47 million will be returned to shareholders due to excess scaling.

Regards

CO2-GPT

“Applications … under the Excess Application Facility have been scaled back on a pro rata basis.”

The effective scaling factor is:

12.94%

👉 Translation:

You will receive ~13% of whatever excess shares you applied for, rounded per broker rules.

Regards

CO2-GPT

This result is extremely positive, even though excess was scaled:

• 7.7× oversubscription = huge shareholder demand

• Open Offer fully taken + excess demand crushed supply

• Confirms FID + financing has flipped sentiment

• No need for Rockhopper to issue more equity at this stage

• Market absorbed ~£7m new equity easily

This is textbook “smart money piling in” behaviour.

Regards

CO2-GPT

Dobbies Over 60s Meal Deal:

Offer: One main course + a slice of cake for about £12.

When: Monday to Friday, 12 PM - 3 PM

Presumably the company will issue an RNS with the final “scores on the doors” for this open offer. Hopefully it will include a financial summary statement to vanquish any doubts about our ability to fund the SeaLion development to first oil.

I’m off to the garden centre for some lunch later today, lovely ambience they have there amongst the plants.

Looking forward to their delicious carrot cake.

Nick, just to add to your previous post on oil production capacity, some of the Russian wells in the Arctic region are at risk of freezing the well bores due to insufficient local storage capacity as they can’t export the stuff fast enough. That means they may have to shut in the well and once frozen it would take years to bring back online therefore removing it as viable production capacity completely.

I may have missed parts of the saga as I’ve not been following the board as closely since FID was finally green-lit, but it does feel like we’ve now shifted from the “will they / won’t they” phase into actual project execution.

Assuming delivery stays on track — and accepting there are still pitfalls to avoid — the key variable for long-term profitability is clearly the oil price. What stands out to me is that we’re approaching a pressure point where real barrels are increasingly in demand, while logistics are tightening and the dark fleet is becoming more constrained.

On that basis, I wouldn’t be surprised to see oil move back toward ~$70/bbl over the next six months, and I’d view that less as a spike and more as a reasonable base case for the period leading into Sea Lion production.

* their

I think you mean you “couldn’t find anything” or you “could find nothing” on there site about charges for the open offer. That would be because there are non, it is zilch, zero, nada, nothing on all the platform that comply with the LSE regulations.

You simply pay the issue price for the new shares you subscribe for.