Member Info for croftoriginal2

Landman, I’m not trying to align with or endorse any views, just observing that this whole Iran thing has a deeper level that’s nothing to do with the Middle East when viewed from a US perspective. If you look at the Asian market where this oil is going then the main ally of the US, Japan, has the largest petroleum reserves anywhere on earth. This Iranian skirmish is a precursor to a conflict with China.

I put forward a similar proposal last week, that is that the war is going exactly to plan if your plan is to push up the cost of oil that your global competitors pay.

People need to understand that those planning these moves are not you average Joe that left school at 16 with a handful of qualifications. This type of activity will have been repeatedly run through every scenario you can imagine with all the Iranian alternatives covered off.

BB_hoppa

Not a criticism of you but an alternate pipeline to bypass the need for tankers to transit the strait is a reasonable response but the way the region has now been stirred up and left now means that Iran would view any pipeline as a legitimate target for missile/drone attack and it only takes one to get through. The entire region is now destabilised for a decade or more. Oil from the region will be sold at a premium and supply will be unstable for years to come. Hmm who does this benefit.

Depending on how many layers you operate on this could be viewed as “going to plan”.

If your domestic need for oil requires that you spend x per barrel and your global competitors pay y per barrel where y is less than x then what better way to increase y by destabilising the region permanently, handing control over the Strait of Hormuz to Iran for 20% of global oil supply including the bulk of all of the ME supply that goes to your global competitors.

You then declare success and return to your own supply from the Gulf of America deep water oil, domestic shale oil and Canadian tar sands.

As for SeaLion well if this is a longer term increase in the base price of oil then it adds to profitability of all NFB oil.

These things take years to settle and with Israel there as a constant thorn in the side of Iran I’d say this has got legs. Meanwhile the UK government are clueless and pegging all hopes on windmills.

Couldn’t agree more, I have typed out a reply to some of these posts and then clicked the back button rather than post my views.

Well that reach 89p quicker than I expected.

LTT, I don’t believe there has been any official news on the refit destination.

My view would be…

Singapore and Batam combo

• Heavy engineering / integration → Singapore

• Fabrication / modules → Batam

My prediction for May 1st 2026 is 89p

🛢️ RKH RNS – Sea Lion Reserves Upgrade (2 April 2026)

Rockhopper has released an updated independent report from NSAI following FID on the Sea Lion project. Key takeaways below.

⸻

📊 Reserves (now booked, not contingent)

• 2P Reserves (Gross): ~314 million barrels

• 2P Reserves (RKH 35%): ~110 million barrels

👉 These volumes have been reclassified from contingent to reserves following FID.

⸻

💰 Value (RKH share)

• NPV10 (2P): ~$966 million

• Undiscounted cashflow: ~$3.1 billion

👉 Based on conservative oil price assumptions:

• ~$63 (2026)

• ~$65 (2027)

• ~$73 long-term

⸻

🧱 Funding

• Cash position: ~$179 million

• Stated as sufficient for Phase 1 capex share

👉 Removes a major historical risk (funding/dilution).

⸻

🚢 Project Progress

• Aoka Mizu FPSO to leave current field mid-2026

• Will undergo refurbishment ahead of Sea Lion deployment

👉 Physical progress now underway.

⸻

📅 Timeline

• First oil target: early 2028 (reconfirmed)

⸻

🔁 Development Model

• Phase 2 expected to be funded from Phase 1 cashflow

👉 Indicates a self-funding development path

⸻

🧭 Contingent Upside (not yet reserves)

• 2C contingent resources (RKH share): ~211 million barrels

• Additional phases remain outside reserves for now

⸻

🎯 Bottom Line

• Project now:

• ✔ Sanctioned (FID done)

• ✔ Funded (Phase 1)

• ✔ Reserves booked (100m+ barrels net)

• Still:

• ⏳ Pre-production

• ⚙️ Execution phase (2026–2028)

⸻

Overall:

This is a de-risking update, confirming Sea Lion has moved from a development concept to a booked, funded project with defined reserves and a path to production.

I’m sure they can combine both a production drill and exploration drill into the same operation in theory, however I don’t have the knowledge or experience to judge whether this is a good choice. On the plus side it saves drilling days getting to depth, I’d guess that on the negative side it adds risk to the well bore failing.

Do the full depth exploration drill first and then once all logged side track off to the production target in SeaLion?

That’s great but isn’t it a general theory and SeaLion could deviate in the later part of the curve as they add in Isobel and others after first oil.

Rolf

The Lassonde Curve (named after Pierre Lassonde) is a stylised chart showing how a mining company’s share price/value typically evolves through a project lifecycle.

Shape (in plain terms)

It’s basically:

Rise → Peak → Long decline → Flat → Rise again

⸻

The stages (this is the important part)

1. Exploration (early hype)

• Little hard data, lots of excitement

• Price rises sharply

2. Discovery (euphoria peak)

• Big find announced

• Maximum optimism

• This is usually the peak

3. Development (the painful valley)

• Feasibility studies, funding, delays

• Reality sets in: costs, dilution, risk

• Price falls and drifts for a long period

4. Construction

• Still expensive, still uncertain

• Market bored/impatient

• Often flat to weak

5. Production (cash flow begins)

• Risk drops

• Revenue becomes real

• Price rises again—more slowly, but sustainably

Rolf, the Lassonde curve crowd are mostly driven by concrete events not news or announcements. Rather than an announcement on a rig or FPSO refit they wait for the action that follows said announcement.

Think of it as more as seeing the fluffy dice hanging from the rear view mirror as the rig steams south to the FI rather than the stamp in the service book and an updated v5.

Ok, so apparently all we need to get the FPSO ready and up and running is: “a lick of paint, a new set of wiper blades, and bolt on a turret”

Job done, everyone relax.

Except… when you actually look at what’s involved with the Aoka Mizu FPSO conversion, it’s a bit more than a Halfords service:

• Full turret mooring system installation (major structural integration, not a bolt-on job)

• Topside process modifications to handle Sea Lion fluids and throughput

• Hull refurbishment and integrity work (years in the North Sea isn’t nothing)

• Offloading and storage system upgrades

• Control, safety and instrumentation upgrades to modern standards

• Likely yard time in Batam with all the usual schedule and scope creep risks

In reality this is a heavy industrial conversion project on the critical path to first oil, here’s the question for the board:

How long does that actually take in the real world, from yard entry to sail-away ready for hook-up?

Are we talking:

• 9–12 months (optimistic)

• 12–18 months (realistic)

• 18–24 months (industry reality once delays creep in)

Interested to hear from anyone with real FPSO refit experience rather than brochure timelines.

We appear to be in a share price band, since mid December 25 the movement has been confined to this range and until we see significant delivery there is no reason to expect it to move upwards.

Article from 21st January 2026

Is this 9am uk time on Wednesday?

It’s all shaping up nicely. Divi has proved his name is finally suited to his character and the Cheesemaster has grated his final Parmigiano Reggiano.

Next announcement could be a significant one, either right news or FPSO update. This time next year we’ll be singing a different song.

Shared mobilisation costs, shake down of the rig prior to development drills and potential for a discovery to increase interest in the region and even share future expansion of FPSO costs.

What’s not to like?

Singapore, Seatrium????

Singapore has historically handled a large share of the world’s FPSO conversions.

They are …

extremely experienced FPSO engineering

stable political environment

strong offshore supply chain

trusted by Western operators

The transit route from Singapore to FI would be

Singapore → Indian Ocean → around the Cape of Good Hope → South Atlantic → Falklands basin.

This route avoids the Middle EastPersian Gulf and the Strait ofentirely, meaning it stays well clear of current Middle East tensions.