Member Info for croftoriginal2

1. Market Impact of FID Announcement

• FID confirms project financing & development, reducing uncertainty and risk.

• Institutional investors and funds may start buying in, increasing demand for shares.

• Improved liquidity and valuation re-rating as the market recognizes future cash flow potential.

From past industry cases (e.g., Hurricane Energy’s Lancaster field, Cairn Energy’s Senegal project), oil E&P stocks typically gain 50-150% after an FID announcement, depending on project scale and financial backing.

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2. Updated Share Price Estimate if FID is Announced

• Current Rockhopper Share Price: ~38.70 GBX (£0.387).

• Post-FID Rally Estimate:

• Base Case (+100%): £0.77 (77p per share)

• Bull Case (+150%): £0.97 (97p per share)

• Bear Case (+50%): £0.58 (58p per share)

These estimates assume:

• FID secures full project financing (likely via Navitas or debt/equity mix).

• Oil price remains ~$75-$85 per barrel.

• Development timelines remain on track for first oil in 2027.

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3. Longer-Term 2025 Price Target

• Without FID: 40-50p range (£0.40 - £0.50)

• With FID by late 2025: 60-100p range (£0.60 - £1.00)

This means if FID is secured, Rockhopper could trade close to £1 per share by the end of 2025.

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Final Answer in Pounds & Pence

If FID is announced, I would expect Rockhopper’s share price to be between:

£0.60 and £1.00 per share (60p - 100p) by the end of 2025.

Cash Flow and Financing Analysis for Rockhopper Exploration (Sea Lion & Isobel-Elaine)

Using discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis at a 10% discount rate, with a 30% tax rate, and assuming both fields are developed over 15 years, here are the key results:

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1. Net Present Value (NPV) Estimates

• Sea Lion NPV (Rockhopper’s 35% share): $1.91 billion

• Isobel-Elaine NPV (Rockhopper’s 35% share): $1.85 billion

• Total NPV (Sea Lion + Isobel-Elaine): $3.76 billion

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2. Per Share Valuation

• Outstanding shares: 640.58 million

• Estimated share price based on cash flow value: $5.86 per share

This means that, based on today’s oil price ($77 per barrel) and assuming the projects reach full production, Rockhopper Exploration could be worth approximately $5.86 per share.

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3. Cash Flow and Financing Implications

• Annual revenue per project (estimated):

• Sea Lion: ~$561 million per year (Rockhopper’s share)

• Isobel-Elaine: ~$540 million per year (Rockhopper’s share)

• Annual net profit (post-tax, post-opex):

• Sea Lion: ~$294 million per year

• Isobel-Elaine: ~$283 million per year

• Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) Requirements:

• Sea Lion (Rockhopper’s share): $420 million (35% of $1.2 billion)

• Isobel-Elaine (Rockhopper’s share): $385 million (35% of $1.1 billion)

• Total CAPEX required: $805 million

• Potential Funding Options:

• Project financing (Navitas partnership or external lenders)

• Offtake agreements (pre-sold oil contracts)

• Debt financing (bank loans, bond issuance)

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4. Key Takeaways

• If both projects reach full production, Rockhopper could be valued at around $5.86 per share.

• Cash flow will be strong once production begins, generating nearly $577 million annually in net profit.

• Rockhopper will need to raise approximately $805 million to fund its share of development costs, likely through a combination of debt and partnerships.

Revised Valuation of Rockhopper Exploration – Including Both Sea Lion & Isobel-Elaine at Today’s Oil Price

By assuming that Isobel-Elaine is developed similarly to Sea Lion, we can calculate an updated valuation for Rockhopper Exploration based on both fields reaching production.

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1. Sea Lion Valuation Recap (Based on 35% Ownership)

• Recoverable resources: 312 million barrels (MMbbls)

• Rockhopper’s share (35%): 109.2 MMbbls

• Net Present Value (NPV10) of the project: $4 billion

• Rockhopper’s share of NPV: $1.4 billion

• Value per share (640.58M shares outstanding): $2.19 per share

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2. Isobel-Elaine Valuation (Assuming Similar Development to Sea Lion)

Since Isobel-Elaine is geologically similar to Sea Lion and part of the same petroleum system, we assume:

• Recoverable resources: 300 million barrels (estimate based on geological reports)

• Rockhopper’s 35% share: 105 MMbbls

• NPV10 Estimate: $3.5 billion (slightly lower than Sea Lion due to less certainty)

• Rockhopper’s share of NPV: $1.225 billion

• Value per share: $1.91 per share

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3. Total Valuation – Sea Lion + Isobel-Elaine

Summing up both projects:

• Total NPV for Rockhopper’s shares: $2.625 billion

• Total value per share: $4.10 per share (at today’s oil price)

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4. Assumptions Used

• Oil price assumption: $77 per barrel (Brent) (which was used in previous NPV estimates)

• Similar project economics for both fields

• No additional dilution of shares

• Financing secured through project loans, not equity raises

• CAPEX and OPEX similar for both fields

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Conclusion

If both Sea Lion and Isobel-Elaine are fully developed and reach production, Rockhopper Exploration could be worth around $4.10 per share based on today’s oil prices.

This valuation assumes that both projects proceed without delays and that Rockhopper can finance its share without issuing new stock. If oil prices rise, this valuation would increase significantly.

Assessing the potential valuation of Rockhopper Exploration based solely on the Sea Lion project’s anticipated production and current oil prices involves several key factors:

1. Sea Lion Project Overview

• Ownership Structure: Rockhopper holds a 35% working interest in the Sea Lion development, with Navitas Petroleum owning the remaining 65% and acting as the operator. 

• Resource Estimates: The project has 2C contingent resources of approximately 791 million barrels (MMbbls), with the initial development phase targeting the recovery of 312 MMbbls. 

• Production Forecast: Peak production is projected at 55,000 barrels per day (bpd).

2. Financial Projections

• Capital Expenditure (Capex): Estimated at $1.2 billion to achieve first oil. 

• Operating Expenditure (Opex): Approximately $17 per barrel over the project’s lifespan. 

• Net Present Value (NPV): The project’s NPV at a 10% discount rate (NPV10) is estimated to exceed $4 billion (post-royalty, pre-tax) based on a Brent crude price of $77 per barrel. 

3. Rockhopper’s Share and Valuation

• Net Share of Resources: Rockhopper’s 35% stake equates to approximately 109.2 MMbbls from the initial 312 MMbbls development. 

• Net NPV: Applying the 35% interest to the project’s NPV suggests Rockhopper’s share is approximately $1.4 billion.

4. Share Valuation

• Shares Outstanding: Rockhopper has approximately 640.58 million shares in circulation. 

• Per Share Value: Dividing Rockhopper’s net NPV by the number of shares yields an estimated value of $2.19 per share.

5. Considerations and Risks

• Oil Price Sensitivity: The valuation is highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices. A decrease below $77 per barrel would reduce the NPV, while higher prices could enhance it.

• Project Financing: Rockhopper’s ability to finance its share of development costs is crucial. The company has secured loan funding from Navitas to cover a significant portion of these expenses. 

• Regulatory and Operational Risks: Delays, cost overruns, or regulatory hurdles could impact project timelines and profitability.

6. Conclusion

Based on the Sea Lion project’s anticipated production and a Brent crude price of $77 per barrel, Rockhopper Exploration’s stake could be valued at approximately $1.4 billion, translating to an estimated $2.19 per share. This valuation is contingent upon successful project execution, stable oil prices, and effective risk management.

Waxy crude……

Potential Negative Impacts:

1. Higher Transport & Storage Costs:

• Waxy crude has a high pour point, meaning it solidifies at relatively warm temperatures (often above 30°C). This makes transportation through pipelines, tankers, or storage more difficult, requiring heating systems or blending with lighter crude.

• Additional processing (diluents, heated storage, or chemical additives) increases operating costs.

2. Limited Refinery Compatibility:

• Many refineries are not optimized to handle high-wax crude without upgrades or blending.

• Waxy crudes often require specialized cracking and hydroprocessing units, which limits the pool of potential buyers.

3. Potential Price Discount:

• Due to the added logistical and refining challenges, waxy crude typically sells at a discount compared to light, low-pour-point crudes.

• The discount depends on market conditions but can range from $2 to $10 per barrel, depending on sulfur content, API gravity, and wax content.

Potential Positive Impacts:

1. High Yield of Valuable Products:

• Waxy crude often has a high yield of middle distillates (diesel, kerosene, jet fuel) and lubricating oils, which can be more valuable than gasoline-focused light crudes.

• If marketed correctly, refiners who need high-wax feedstocks for specialty products may pay a premium.

2. Blending Opportunities:

• If there are nearby light crude sources (e.g., North Sea Brent, WTI, or other Falklands production), blending can create a more marketable crude stream.

• Some refineries actively seek waxy crude for blending because it improves lubricating oil production.

Overall Saleability Impact:

• Short-term impact: Likely negative, due to higher transportation and refining costs.

• Long-term impact: Neutral to positive, depending on infrastructure investments, refinery partnerships, and market conditions.

If Navitas Petroleum secures off-take agreements with refineries that can process waxy crude or develops heated transport infrastructure, the impact could be minimized or even turned into an advantage.

Key Highlights:

1. Company Overview:

• Navitas Petroleum is a leading oil and gas partnership focused on developing and investing in petroleum assets.

• The company is involved in multiple offshore projects in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Falkland Islands.

2. Reserves & Financial Projections:

• Total proven reserves: 281 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE).

• Total contingent resources: 843 MMBOE.

• Net present value (NPV10) of proven reserves (1P/2P): $4.65 billion.

• NPV10 of contingent resources (1C/2C): $3.75 billion.

3. Major Projects:

• Shenandoah Project (U.S.):

• Expected to start production in June 2025.

• Estimated daily production: 45,000 barrels per day (Navitas’ share).

• Investment decision (FID) was made in August 2021.

• Sea Lion Project (Falklands):

• One of the world’s largest undeveloped oil discoveries.

• Expected production start by 2027.

• Estimated daily production: 132,500 barrels per day (Navitas’ share).

• Navitas holds a 65% interest in the project.

• Other Projects (U.S.):

• Monument, Shenandoah South, Danbury, Basking, Naches.

• Several projects in advanced development stages.

4. Financial Strategy & Investments:

• The company is securing project financing through bank loans and bond issuances.

• Has secured $617 million in guaranteed project financing.

• Recently signed agreements for well completion, pipeline installation, and FPS (Floating Production System) services.

5. Growth Strategy:

• Reducing risks and shortening production timelines by investing in late-stage projects.

• Targeting strategic offshore projects with high-value potential.

• Expanding holdings in existing fields, increasing shares in the Monument project from 20% to 28.57%.

6. Market & Economic Factors:

• Oil price estimates based on Brent & WTI forecasts from leading financial institutions.

• Expected cash flow increase from 2025 onwards as production starts.

7. Risk Factors & Disclaimers:

• The presentation includes forward-looking statements that depend on market conditions, regulatory approvals, and technical assessments.

• Future projects and returns are subject to oil price volatility and operational risks.

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Conclusion:

Navitas Petroleum is positioning itself as a major offshore oil producer, with key assets in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and the Falklands. Their strategy involves developing proven reserves quickly, securing financing, and increasing shareholder value through high-impact offshore projects. The company expects significant production growth from 2025 onward, particularly with the Shenandoah and Sea Lion projects.

Itchy Left Palm Tonight, Straight Up

Oh, my left palm’s itching tight,

Straight up—what a curious plight!

Is it wealth or just a bite?

Either way, it’s feeling right.

Maybe cash is on its way,

Or mosquitos came to play.

Could be luck, could be doom—

Guess I’ll find out pretty soon!

Should I scratch or let it be?

Rub it raw or wait and see?

Either way, the night is young,

And my palm’s still feeling stung!

****************

Now, don’t go betting based on this rhyme,

An itchy palm’s no banker’s sign.

For legal’s sake—this ain’t financial advice,

Just poetic nonsense (but wouldn’t cash be nice?).

Fingers crossed it carries on until after 5th April.

No one knows the exact trajectory of the share price but as far as I can tell this is currently a buy all the way to 50p and then if and when FID is favourable all the way to 100p.

Newbie’s can trade the ups and downs and long term holders can sit out and watch the 5 year chart formation.

Unfortunately I agree with Garbled on this occasion although I’m not sure about the timing.

Once OM is done and dusted along with the sale of all the Italian holdings and the FIG tax disparity is reconciled then FID will see the share price much higher than today, probably towards 100p. At that point we should be in for a steady stream of news running up to first oil, however by then this will be a global story and little Rockhopper will be a target for a takeover. The question is at what price.

DISCLAIMER:

The events, characters, and dubious financial decisions in this story are entirely fictional. Any resemblance to real persons, companies, or oil exploration firms—particularly Rockhopper Exploration—is purely coincidental and most likely the result of an overactive imagination combined with excessive sherry sherbet consumption.

No actual oil discoveries have been made under abandoned donkey sanctuaries (as far as we know), and One-Legged Pete is not, nor has he ever been, a qualified geologist. Please consult a responsible financial advisor before making investment decisions based on pub-based intelligence.

the great sherry sherbet oil rush

it all started with one-legged pete, a notorious raconteur and self-proclaimed prospector, who limped into the rusty pelican tavern at precisely 10:03 last night. he slammed a fist on the bar and declared, “i tell ya, boys, i struck black gold!”

the barman, a wise old soul who had heard every tall tale from here to the hebrides, barely looked up from polishing a dubious-looking pint glass. “sure you have, pete. just like the time you found elvis working at the post office.”

but pete wasn’t to be deterred. he produced a grimy napkin covered in what appeared to be geological scribbles, a doodle of a dancing girl, and an unfinished shopping list for biscuits.

“this here proves it! a vast underground lake of the purest crude oil, right under old man higginbotham’s abandoned donkey sanctuary!”

the regulars gasped. this was big news. the barman even stopped polishing his glass.

before anyone could call him a liar (as was customary), the tavern doors burst open, and in sauntered a group of high-kicking dancing girls from the travelling variety show, sequins glistening in the dim pub light. it was as if fate itself had choreographed the moment.

inspired by the spectacle, the locals broke into spontaneous celebration, ordering rounds of the rusty pelican’s infamous “sherry sherbets” — a dubious ****tail consisting of sherry, fizzy lemonade, and an unexpected aftertaste of regret.

as the night went on, enthusiasm for pete’s discovery grew. someone rang up a journalist. someone else (having consumed a record six sherry sherbets) mistakenly called the london stock exchange and yelled, “buy oil! pete found it!” before passing out in the bread basket.

by the time the sun rose, the story had snowballed. financial analysts were scrambling to get a piece of the action, citing “undeniable pub-based intelligence.” the share price of the obscure oil exploration firm higginbotham energy & donkeys plc soared by 300%, with one particularly excitable morning show anchor breathlessly comparing pete’s find to “the second coming of the texas oil boom.”

and so, as the world scrambled to understand why the markets had lost their minds, pete sat quietly in the corner of the rusty pelican, sipping another sherry sherbet and humming an old alma cogan tune.

“rich at last,” he muttered to himself. “now i can finally buy that second leg.”

Ah, my dear fellow, Zaza remains a rather subdued affair, though still abuzz with a certain ineffable je ne sais quoi!

I happened to saunter into Sharkey’s last evening, purely in the spirit of gentlemanly recreation, you understand. A spot of billiards with the dancing girls, accompanied by a few rather agreeable Angkors—though, between you and me, one does rather pine for a proper decanter of the good stuff. Sherry, my dear chap! Nectar of the gods! Alas, the establishment was markedly quieter than on my last jaunt a few weeks prior—dreadfully uncrowded, positively bereft of its usual joie de vivre.

The old guard, those indomitable relics of a bygone era, were ensconced in their usual positions, engaged in some arcane debate concerning Marlon’s hump. A topic of great gravity, I assure you. The prevailing wisdom? She was quite brimming—one might say, much like a well-poured glass of Amontillado on a particularly fine afternoon at the club.

Meanwhile, the barman was locked in discourse with the cellarman—just returned from his latest sojourn. No doubt he had been off gallivanting in search of more sherry, or so one would hope. I caught murmurs that Zaza was, shall we say, a touch on the tranquil side. But lo! New arrivals had manifested, fresh-faced and eager, awaiting a momentous occasion with the sort of breathless anticipation usually reserved for the uncorking of an especially vintage Oloroso.

The proprietor, I must say, looked frightfully pleased with himself—much like Uncle Bertie upon securing an exquisite 40-year-old Pedro Ximénez at auction.

And then, as if on cue, the sun made its grand entrance, dazzling the morning like the last golden drop of sherry twinkling at the bottom of one’s glass. Rather splendid, wouldn’t you say?

Arrr, Zaza be a quiet port, but aye, she be a busy one still!

I staggered me way into Sharkey’s last night, belly full o’ sherry and a mind set on a game o’ pool with the dancin’ lasses. Had me a few tankards o’ Angkor to steady the ship, but blast me timbers, the place weren’t near as lively as me last drunken voyage there.

The old sea dogs were all present, as they always be, sittin’ round like barnacles on a hull, arguin’ ‘bout Marlon’s hump. Aye, consensus was she be filled to the brim, much like me goblet o’ sweet, sweet sherry.

Behind the bar, the barman nattered with the cellarman, the latter just back from his latest plunderin’ and swillin’. I caught ‘im mutter somethin’ ‘bout Zaza bein’ a touch too quiet for his likin’. But lo! New scallywags had appeared, fresh-faced and eager, awaitin’ some grand arrival like a ship full o’ the finest casks o’ sherry rollin’ into port.

As for the owner, the salty ol’ devil looked as pleased as a pirate who’d just found his long-lost bottle o’ sherry buried in the sands o’ time.

And with that, the sun rose over the horizon, glintin’ like the last drop of sherry in me flagon. A fine omen, methinks!

alma, ai as it stands right now is a tool. just like any other tool before it, if you are adept at handling said tool, be that a hammer, a scalpel or an ai engine then you will produce high quality work.

i use chat gpt everyday and there is a skill to guiding the ai to produce high quality results in a fraction of the time it would have taken prior to this new technology.

i can tell you that it is prone to try and bull**** you, for example it will make up switches that don’t exist and have never existed when asked a question. when you confront it with its mistake it simply acknowledges the mistake and apologies.

jebr says it depends what you feed it, i’d 100% agree, give it a firm steer and specify exactly what you are after and it delivers quite amazing results.

croft

Video Title:

Ukraine destroys Russia’s biggest industry.

Description:

What’s the best way to weaken Russia’s war machine? Ukraine has found an answer: targeting its oil industry. In this video, we explore Ukraine’s daring drone strikes, including the January 2025 attack on Russia’s Taneco refinery, one of the nation’s largest oil facilities. These strikes disrupt fuel supplies to Russian forces, hit the economy hard, and even impact everyday citizens.

https :// youtu .be /kxZPtcqc3MM?si=RghkauepQwrYm_cH

I suggest at this stage that everyone who is along for the ride to first oil, if they haven’t already, work out what each 1p rise in share price means for them. That could either simply be in monetary terms or specifically a goal like a deposit on a house, a new car, a holiday or in Garbled’s case his/her bus fare home. Just kidding Garbled, put the kitkats down.

Oh, Sharky’s, you say? Well, buckle up, folks, because it’s clearly *the* place to be right now. Forget the rumours about its "decline"—they were clearly written by someone who doesn't know a good dive bar from a hole in the ground. Sharky’s is in the midst of a full-blown *renaissance*, like a phoenix rising from the ashes of mediocre pub nights and spilled pints. Or at least, that’s what they’d like you to think.

First up, the barman. What a hero. The guy’s practically a local legend now, bravely handling the regulars, the newbies, and probably even the ghosts who haunt the dark corner where the “oldies” are still yapping about the “Llandudno scrolls.” Honestly, I’m not sure whether they’re discussing ancient texts or just what’s on TV tonight, but hey, they're probably just as confused as the rest of us. Meanwhile, the "newbies" are over in the corner playing chess, waiting for Mogger to drop the next “discovery,” which—let's be real—is probably just an old receipt from the kebab shop.

Then we’ve got Old Legged Pete, who seems to have made a miraculous recovery and has suddenly become a fixture. He’s planning some "special party" mid-year—because nothing says “classy” like a mystery event thrown together by a guy who may or may not have just had his 21st birthday *again*. Meanwhile, the Owner, bless his heart, is still trying to sort out his "European cousins" and clearly thinks the Zaza Hotel is some sort of luxury bunker. But don’t get excited—no one's buying bottles of Château Rothschild; they’re still sipping whatever they've got on tap.

Ah, and the Cellarman? Who knows. The guy's MIA, probably off doing something super mysterious like hunting for "special crates" or... wandering the streets looking for a decent bottle of wine. No one’s seen him, but honestly, nobody’s looking that hard.

In conclusion, Sharky’s is the place to be if you're into drinking questionable Angkor beer, trying your hand at pool while you dodge dancing girls (who I assume are just there for the entertainment value), and holding out hope that someday, just maybe, the owner will actually get his hands on that Rothschild. It’s definitely *coming* back, just... at its own pace.

But hey, here comes the sun... eventually.

I am here for first oil from Sea Lion and appraisal/CPR of Isobel.

Then we should see true value and many people will be queuing to buy shares as it is just the start of the basin with much more to come.

As for mortgages and fast cars I’m fortunate to be in a position where that’s not an issue I’m concerned with, but I do see Rockhopper as “unfinished business” and that alone is enough to motivate me to hold on for a while.

Good luck to all those who’ve committed funds and are carrying significant risk. Profit is the potential reward for risk, I just hope we don’t get bought out too soon.

One week after FID, best estimate of 82.125 for me please squire.