Member Info for croftoriginal2

I’m a bit hazy on the what, when, how , if this, if that for The OM results.

Does anyone have a worst case scenario, I.e. full annulment, and what insurance payment would kick in for Rockhopper?

Anything else would be a bonus for me.

ChatGPT disagrees with you

“Thanks for your concern, but your selective pessimism doesn’t hold water — much like your argument.”

Let’s deal in facts, not fear-mongering:

1. Funding has always been the final hurdle — not a new revelation. Rockhopper, Harbour, and now Navitas have all stated clearly that the technical and regulatory groundwork is in place. What’s changed? The Sea Lion project is now leaner and more commercially attractive, with Phase 1 capex cut by nearly half from earlier plans.

2. Navitas didn’t step in to fail. They’ve got skin in the game: a 65% stake and operatorship. You don’t take that on unless you see real value and have a clear plan to reach FID — and Navitas has a track record of delivering in tough frontier regions.

3. Delays ≠ failure. Yes, timelines have moved. Welcome to oil & gas megaprojects post-COVID, post-Ukraine, in a tighter finance world. But Sea Lion is still one of the largest undeveloped offshore fields globally — and it’s low sulphur, light crude in a world shifting away from heavier blends.

4. Recent company updates show progress, not paralysis: ongoing engagement with development banks, possible farm-ins or off-take agreements, and renewed communication from FIG. These aren’t the signs of a dead project — they’re the signs of a deal being carefully and responsibly constructed.

If you’re betting on complete failure after this much groundwork, you’re either incredibly cynical or just hoping to buy in lower.

Either way — the long game isn’t over. The smart money knows that frontier oil is hard, but the rewards can be transformational.

Good luck to you too. You’ll need it more than us.

Just out of curiosity I thought I’d have a quick go at trading this share or slicing ham as some other prefer to call it.

I’m fully back in now and have very slightly increased my shareholding. But was it worth it?

I sold at 55.000p and bought back three days later using the same funds after the fees at 53.400p

Put it this way, the angst of being out for only a few days and not even spanning a weekend was too much, what if there is an announcement of significance that shoots the share price up by many multiples?

For the poultry returns that I have made I can say it wasn’t worth it for me, maybe others will continue to slice, duck and dive.

Thank you r1234, at least someone is keeping up.

Of the three FPSOs in the recent LinkedIn post that were touted to be FI bound only one is actually being planned right now. The others are a fair way down the road. As you have stated the next in line would be a replacement once subsequent Sea Lion phases are in flight and the third is dependent on the SFB even getting going.

Just probing Chat GPT about DCF valuations and feeding it things to factor in….

Factoring in:

• Sea Lion Phase 1 (35% share, 10-year DCF)

• Ombrina Mare award (conservatively €65M)

• Isobel/Elaine complex (35% of 500M recoverable barrels, comparable economics)

The total estimated per-share valuation for Rockhopper is approximately:

891 pence (£8.91)

This figure assumes project success, Final Investment Decision, and risk-adjusted recovery across all three assets. It shows just how transformative full North Falkland Basin development could be for shareholders.

Can anyone else confirm these figures?

RKH showing 13.7 to 54.5 a 297.8% increase

BOR showing 1.69 to 5.95 a 252.0% increase

Maybe it’s just me but there is a distinct charcoal smell around here, could it be that a pile of short, tracksuit bottoms and trainers are on fire?

F, A, G, packet

Looking at post debt repayment RKH annual profit on Sea Lion using a sector P/E of 6 would indicate a share price of around £2

Alternatively using fancy discounted cash flow valuation would indicate a share price of around £3

Take you pick.

Taking into account the increased share count, reduced ownership stake, and enhanced resource estimates, the adjusted present-day equivalent of the 2011 800p valuation is approximately 328p per share.

This figure reflects the dilution from additional shares and the decreased percentage ownership, offset by the increased resource base and updated project valuations.

If it comes out on Audible I’ll add it to my collection, I’m into autobiographies, biographies or anything that recounts real life events. Love a good story based on the real world, life is full of interesting characters and the shenanigans that people get up to.

'I think he meant upheld , not annulled '

I knew that was what he meant, but didn’t think it worth saying anything as it was obvious.

Many thanks, everyone.

I’ve spent some time reflecting on the situation with M-D. While he may raise questions that cause uncertainty, it’s important that we continue to promote clarity and credibility, especially if his guidance lacks the substance and integrity we need.

With potentially challenging economic conditions on the horizon, it’s more important than ever that we rely on thoughtful, trustworthy advice rather than perspectives that may be more self-interested than constructive.

While there may be scenarios in which Navitas would need to reassess its commitment to Sea Lion and the Falkland Islands, any suggestion that such considerations are currently being entertained is unfounded and appears to be a deliberate attempt to undermine confidence.

LTT, couldn’t have put it better myself, from my perspective this was a buy up to 50p a while ago and any fallback in share price is just another opportunity to buy some more at what appears to be a big discount to their real value in the longer term.

Yes, mid 60’s or 63p if you want to pin the tail on the donkey.

The weak oil price today shouldn’t be too much of an impact on us based on our current oil output!

But I will concede that in general the sector is weighed down right now by sub $60 oil (Brent at 59.99 as I am typing this message out)

There is so much to happen over the next few months so cups, plates, handles, chopping boards and saucepans should all indicate a BUY for Rockhopper.

Over the next couple of weeks we need to break through 63 and stay there at close of day.

If we can do that it would set us up nicely for either OM or FID.

It has been a few too many years but I can still recall a discussion on iii around Isobel (and complex, Elaine, deep, etc) and how it looked to be significantly larger than Sealion, about twice the recoverable oil if I remember correctly.

I’m hoping that once OM comes in and FID is green then we should see a steady stream of updates on Sealion but if I’m honest it is Isobel that is unfinished business for me. I’m in this to see first oil from Sealion but also I want a fully appraised Isobel and an updated CPR showing just what we have here.

Then and only then do I think we will see true value start to show in the share price. This really is as “cheap as chips”.

The next two months and then the next two years are going to be a wild ride, who know where this will end up.

5-year financial model based on your assumptions for Rockhopper’s 35% stake in Sea Lion, now factoring in the confirmation that most of the $1.4B Capex is tax-allowable.

Highlights:

• Years 1 & 2: No corporate tax due — Rockhopper nets $258 million per year

• Year 3: Capex shield runs out partway — tax starts to apply

• Year 4 & 5: Full corporate tax applied — Rockhopper nets $191 million per year

Assumptions Recap:

• Production: 50,000 barrels per day

• Netback / Margin per barrel: $47

• Annual Uptime: 345 days

• Revenue: 50,000 * $47 * 345 = $810 million / year

• Royalty: 9% on turnover = $72.9 million

• Profit before tax: $810m - $72.9m = $737.1 million

• Corporate tax rate: 26% (but only after $1.7B Capex is used up)

• Capex to 1st oil: $1.4B

• RKH stake: 35%

⸻

Year-by-Year Breakdown

Year 1

• Gross profit (after royalty): $737.1 million

• Taxable income: $737.1m – but shielded by Capex

• Tax paid: $0 (Capex shielding in effect)

• Rockhopper share (35%): 0.35 * $737.1m = $257 million

Year 2

• Same figures as Year 1

• Still under $1.7B shield (only $1.474B used so far)

• Tax paid: $0 again

• Rockhopper share: $257 million

⸻

Cumulative Profit After 2 Years

• Total RKH profit = $257m * 2 = $514 million

• Previously estimated = $427 million

• Difference / upside: +$87 million

⸻

Key Implications

• Rockhopper recovers more than its $490 million estimated share of development Capex within 2 years.

• That puts the company cash flow positive fairly quickly post-1st oil.

• No corporate tax due until at least midway through Year 3, possibly longer depending on how the allowable costs phase in.