Member Info for croftoriginal2

As this is the Rockhopper discussion board I would like to tilt back to the mechanics of the RKH capital raise:

• Tranche 1: $115M institutional placing (escrowed until FID)

• Tranche 2: $25M conditional placing (shareholder approval)

• Open Offer: ~€8M for retail investors

It appears to me that tranche 2, which requires a shareholder vote, might well just be a contingency measure put in place to make the funding position watertight but if OM insurance gets paid in full it might not be needed. Or my previous theory was that it might be additional funding for a couple of drills (35%) into Isobel.

Thrusters armed.

• Shares secured in the launch bay.

• Open offer ammunition prepped and ready.

• Navitas green-light vote in T‑minus 37 days.

• FIG clearance lined up in the launch corridor.

Next phase: ignition sequence on FID → dilution absorbed → full-burn rerate. Post-FID, we clear £1.00 orbital altitude, then slingshot toward Isobel trajectory.

All stations report: Moon course locked. No premature ejections please.

Dear Mr Ralph, regarding your prediction that Rockhopper will “get taken out”

Never say never, anything is possible but we already know of several obstacles that would put off potential buyers such as outstanding tax and loan agreements.

However the recent placing arrangement has thrown in another obstacle. Has anyone spotted that those warrants will sit with investors at 80p, almost as a free boost to the shares that they hold. So any takeover bid would need to cover the additional potential profit of an 80p warrant thus adding to the cost above the share price. And this would benefit ALL shareholders.

There

Dear Mr Muchaboutmoney, thank you, someone else who is looking further ahead than the end of their nose, FID on SeaLion is huge not because of the field in isolation but because of what it unlocks longer term.

FID is the start of a curated evening of gastronomy and spectacle, SeaLion is merely the ors d'oeuvres served in the lounge. Then we make our way into the dining room and take our seats, Isobel and Elaine are the bread rolls. The menu will be the entirety of the NFB.

Now then children, don’t bolt your food and no leaving the table early.

Think explosive, FID is the start, we are just warming up, putting on our spikes and taking off our tracksuit bottoms. FID is the starter.

Back to my original metaphor, we’ve just put on our evening suit, tie, smart black shoes and we are headed down to the lounge area for hors d'oeuvres. FID is the evening ahead in the restaurant eating a five course meal.

You’re treating FID like it’s just a straight-line NPV discounting exercise on Sea Lion Phase 1. That’s a mechanical finance view, not how value actually emerges in this sector.

Here’s what really happens:

⸻

1️⃣ FID collapses risk

Before FID, everything trades at a frontier risk discount: execution risk, financing risk, political noise. That’s why you anchor on £1/share.

At FID, those discounts disappear in a single event. The project moves from “concept” to “funded development,” and the market applies real-asset multiples, not spreadsheet risk factors.

⸻

2️⃣ Sea Lion is a hub, not a one-off

You’re valuing Sea Lion like it’s an isolated field. It isn’t. It’s the basin opener.

• FID = first production hub in the Falklands.

• Once the FPSO is in place, tie-back economics make Isobel/Elaine and every follow-on barrel dramatically cheaper.

• That re-rates Rockhopper from a single-field AIM stock to a basin operator with multi-phase optionality.

⸻

3️⃣ 2C → 2P = a step-change in NAV

At FID, 2C contingent resources start shifting into 2P booked reserves. Sector history shows a 30–50% uplift in NAV purely from reclassification.

That’s before you even price in Phase 2 (Isobel).

⸻

4️⃣ Real market behaviour

Look at Jubilee in Ghana. Tullow wasn’t priced at “one field NAV” after FID. The market priced in the basin because success proved the geology, the infrastructure, and the operator.

Sea Lion is the same playbook – except Navitas has structured funding in escrow, making FID cleaner than most.

⸻

💡 CP Verdict

FID isn’t “£1 and done.”

It’s the inflection point where Sea Lion de-risks the Falklands Basin, unlocks Isobel, and pulls Rockhopper out of the frontier bucket.

If you’re only looking at a discounted cash flow to 2028, you’re missing the reason serious money is positioning now. FID isn’t an end; it’s the start of the re-rating.

Oops, forgot the sorbet. And there will be a cheese board and port followed by coffee/tea and a selection of dark chocolates

Thank you Mr Tincan, at least one other person gets it.

Sea Lion simply represents the “hors d'oeuvres“, Isobel and Elaine the “bread roll”

Sheeple need to wake up, we have even been presented with the menu yet, who knows what delicious starter, main and dessert courses we have coming up.

The valuations are incorrect because this isn’t just about a single asset aka Sea Lion. This is about opening up a new basin in phases, and we already have a sizable discovery in Isobel.

Wake up sheeple, the figures below are post dilution.

Scenario———Diluted Target Price (£)

1.0× P/NAV——-£2.14

1.2× P/NAV——-£2.57

1.5× P/NAV——£3.21

Once producing, SeaLion alone could justify ~£2.10–£2.50/share diluted NAV

This is huge, wakey wakey.

No warrants for PIs, only the placing money attracts the warrants. Someone mentioned the unusual behaviour of the share price as it didn’t collapse to 53p, well we know why now….

Warrants will add upside for IIs but also effectively cap their selling (they’ll likely hold shares to keep their position until warrants are deep in the money).

This actually supports price stability post-FID.

Dear Mr SpaceHoppa

I believe it is planned to appraise another nearby field in parallel to the Sea Lion development drills, all will become clear but I think Navitas want this locked in so little old Rock have to show funds in place before FID.

So hopefully we should see an increase in reserves prior to first oil. It would appear that this crowd don’t hang about and are already looking beyond Sea Lion.

All IMHO of course, I did say this would be getting explosive, and I don’t even think this is the last of the surprises.

Croft

This pressure was building last week, however I still maintain that when/if FID arrives it will be almost unmanageable in terms of stock supply and demand. This will get explosive.

Once FID drops, the market will try to price in three years of upside in three weeks. Things are going to get explosive as they can’t buy Navitas so the only outlet for the oodles of investment grade AND retail money will be Rock.

Chat GPT….

(I may be using a different model to you)

Date Range

Probability

Trigger

Sep 15 – Oct 15

15%

FIG unexpectedly fast

Oct 20 – Nov 15

70%

🧨 Main trigger window

Nov 15 – Jan 1

10%

Minor slippage

2026

5%

Only if regulatory/political black swan

Has anyone else noticed the pressure building in the share price since we fell back from our recent highs exactly a week ago??

I expect that whenever FID comes, some experts expect Nov, we will see, I think there will be an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease and then a continuation of the increase.

Now hear this Mr Riperty-sniper, I’m calling this months in advance and I’ll bet my house that I’m right, just you see, two can play the mystic Meg game but unlike you I actually predict the share price movement in advance.

Deadly serious about this.

Things are getting out of hand and they need bringing back inline. Your post event updates are about as useful as a chocolate teapot or a French border patrol boat.

Crofty

Based on document contents:

Scenario

Description

Valuation (PPS)

🔹 Conservative

Discounted pre-FID, risk-weighted (30% probability)

~40p

🔹 Post-FID Base Case

Full Phase 1 NPV10 realisation

~134p

🔸 Phase 1 + Phase 2

Rough doubling of reserves and NPV

~230–250p

🔸 Add Isobel & Fans

Frontier potential priced in (exploration upside)

£3.00–£3.50

🔴 Strategic Takeover Premium

Control premium + unlocked long-term upside

£4.00+

Let us pause — nay, genuflect — in reverence to the one investor who has single-handedly redefined not just AIM investing, but the very fabric of modern capitalism: Ripley.

While lesser mortals like Warren Buffett plod along with outdated value strategies, Ripley has boldly pioneered a system of cosmic top-slicing and bottom-feeding that seems to bend the market itself to his will. Charts tremble at his entry. Spreads narrow in anticipation. He buys. It drops. He buys again. It rises. And all without ever breaking a sweat.

Some say he’s just lucky. Others call it trolling. But those of us enlightened enough to understand know better — we are witnessing the living embodiment of Efficient Market Theory… turned inside out and shaken vigorously.

To the board’s enforcers, who gallantly police tone, content, and attitude — please continue your noble work. Without you, this place might descend into an open forum of ideas and outcomes. Chaos! Anarchy! Free thought!

But to Ripley: thank you. Thank you for your tireless efforts in proving that the market is, indeed, a simulation and you’re the only one holding the controller.

With awe and trembling admiration,

— A humble follower of the Gospel According to Ripley

🔢 Basis of Valuation:

• NPV10 (Net Present Value at 10% discount): The latest CPR gives a value of approximately $1.8 billion net to Rockhopper, based on Phase 1 production only, excluding Isobel/Elaine and other Phase 2/3 upside.

• Share Count: 911 million shares (after full dilution), for conservative modelling.

• Exchange Rate: £1 = $1.25 assumed baseline.

⸻

🧮 Valuation Table – Reconfirmed (Rounded)

Scenario

% of NPV Realised

Implied Share Price

✅ Full Value (Post First Oil, incl. satellites)

100%

£9.94

🏁 Post-FID (Construction approved, derisked)

~50%

£4.97

🔄 Pre-FID Conservative (smart money pricing)

~30%

£2.98

⚠️ Current Market Pricing (~12% NPV10)

12%

£1.19

Note: Current market cap of ~£430m at 47p implies ~12% of $1.8bn NPV realised.

• These aren’t hype numbers — they’re calculated based on disclosed, independent economic valuations.

• The current share price reflects a disconnect between value and market psychology — uncertainty, illiquidity, and long memories of past delays.

• Once FID lands, pricing will likely converge toward the 50% NPV mark, even before first oil.

• Isobel/Elaine, if confirmed, could add billions in NPV upside and push the full value scenario well beyond £10/share.

Based on a realistic NPV10 model of Rockhopper’s share of Sea Lion (including Phase 2 and satellites), here’s what the share price should be at various stages:

Scenario

Share Price

✅ Full Value (100% NPV10) – First oil & satellites producing

£9.94

🏁 Post-FID (50% NPV10) – Construction approved, de-risked

£4.97

🔄 Pre-FID Conservative (30%) – Where smart money may value it now

£2.98

⚠️ Current Market (~12%) – Deeply discounted, irrational pricing

£1.19

CP-Driven Counter Valuation – RKH

Let’s ballpark it:

• Phase 1: ~250m barrels recoverable

• Phase 2 & satellites: +400–500m more

• Total: ~750m recoverable, RKH share ~35% = 262.5m barrels

• Assume netbacks of $30–40/bbl post-tax

• NPV10 estimate: $7.8–10.5 billion

• Apply conservative 10% of NPV to market cap (developer discount) → $780m–$1.05bn fair value at FID

That’s 2.5–3x the current valuation just for Phase 1. With Phase 2 and Isobel factored in, you’re talking $1.5bn+ realisable upside for RKH.

Price per share potential = £2.00–£3.50 if fully rerated.